Although the Eastern Conference Finals match-up hasn’t been set yet, it’s time to say goodbye (belatedly) to the Philadelphia Flyers, who proved that match-ups mean everything. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Flyers scored a league-high 30 goals and averaged 27.5 shots per game. But, in five games against the Devils, they scored just 11 goals, and after getting 36 shots in winning Game 1, they averaged just 24.5 shots per game over the final four games. (S/t NHL.com for the stats.)
Overall, the Flyers averaged 3.73 goals per game during the playoffs, but just 2.2 against the Devils (after averaging five per game against the Penguins) — and scored fewer goals (seven) combined over the course of the series’ final four games (all losses) than they did in both game two and three against the Penguins, when they scored eight goals per game.
The Ottawa Senators ended the 2010-11 season in 13th place in the Eastern Conference and 26th place overall in the NHL and looked to be on track for a painful rebuild. As they entered this past season they were picked by many analysts to be battling for the first overall pick, not the playoffs. Well Brian Murray, Eugene Melnyk and the rest of the Senators organization proved everyone wrong by making the playoffs and they were one win away from eliminating the first place NY Rangers in their first round playoff series.
Now that the Toronto Marlies are one win away from the Western Conference Finals in the Calder Cup playoffs, many people are beginning to draw comparisons between last season’s Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs. But is this a fair comparison?
The theme of the 2012 Western Conference finals has to be “out with the old; in with the new.” Anybody who questions that mantra need only to look up the combined conference finals berths in the (relatively short) histories of the Phoenix Coyotes and Los Angeles Kings. That total would be one — achieved by the 1993 Kings starring Wayne Gretzky. But that was so long ago that the team the Kings defeated in the conference finals, the Toronto Maple Leafs, are now in the Eastern Conference. (The Kings lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the great Patrick Roy and the Montreal Canadiens in five games.) This year, in fact, marks the first time in the 15 seasons the Coyotes have spent in Phoenix that they actually won a playoff series. (As the Winnipeg Jets, the franchise won three World Hockey Association titles but, since joining the NHL for the 1979-80 season, only won two playoff series before moving to Phoenix — and never reached the Campbell/Western Conference finals.
OK, enough history… these two teams are really good. They’re the top two defensive teams in the playoffs (in terms of goals allowed per game) and two of the best on the penalty kill. The Kings are slightly better offensively (averaging three goals per game, compared to the Coyotes’ 2.64), but have a much worse power play (8.5 percent effective, compared to 16.1 percent for Phoenix).
In 12 postseason games — and most likely throughout the entire 2011-12 season — the Washington Capitals have swayed between playing brilliantly and being mistake-prone. These emotional and physical swings can happen from one period to the next, or even in the bat of an eyelash.
Last night’s 3-2 overtime loss to the New York Rangers brought the Caps’ postseason record to 6-6. They’ve scored 26 goals and allowed 27. They eliminated the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins in seven games and were this close to being up three games to two on the top-seeded Rangers. In a flash, New York received a four-minute power play (on a double-minor to Joel Ward), scored two goals in less than two minutes of elapsed game time (over the end of regulation and the start of overtime) and snatched a victory away from the Caps.
Even so, many would argue that the Caps had no business even being that close. The Rangers out shot them, 38-18 overall and 17-4 in the first period. New York dominated play for most of the game and, even though they failed to unleash a shot on three power plays, the Rangers still converted when it mattered most. The Caps’ offense seems to be improving, but they still couldn’t get a shot on goal during several odd-man rushes last night.
I will be posting a series of articles looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs organizational depth by position. I started the series last week with goaltenders and I am continuing from the net out and going with defensemen next.
Defensemen on 2011-12 roster:
Dion Phaneuf
Carl Gunnarsson
John-Michael Liles
Mike Komisarek
Luke Schenn
Cody Franson (RFA)
Jake Gardiner
I will be posting a series of articles looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs organizational depth by position. Brian Burke says that he likes to build his teams from the net out so that is where I will be starting.
Goalies on 2011-12 roster:
James Reimer
Jonas Gustavsson (UFA)
Goaltending was a major issue for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2011-12. The Maple Leafs signed James Reimer to a 3 year deal after a great stint with the big club in 2010-11 and Reimer looked to be the answer in goal for the Leafs. However, he struggled after suffering a concussion early in the season and never was able to get back on track. Gustavsson looked very good at times this past season but consistency continues to be his biggest issue. As he heads into unrestricted free agency we can be fairly certain that he won’t be back with the Maple Leafs for the 2012-13 season.
There is no doubt that the goaltender is the single most influential player on any hockey team and rivals that of a quarterback in football for how much impact the position has on the game. Although having good goaltending does not guarantee success, not having it is a recipe for failure.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been a prime example of this over a seven year stretch in which they have not made the playoffs. Some will argue that the Maple Leafs just haven’t iced a good enough team to finish in the top eight in the Eastern Conference, which is a debatable point. What is not debatable is how inconsistent and below average their goaltending has been over that time period.
When James Reimer jumped into the Maple Leaf goal in the 2010-11 NHL season and posted an impressive 20-10-5 record with a 2.60 goals against average and a .921 save percentage it looked like the Maple Leafs finally had there answer in goal. Reimer looked so good in that he was rewarded with a 3 year deal at $1.8 million per season. Unfortunately Reimer suffered a concussion early in the season and never appeared to recover.
I continue my analysis of the 2nd round Stanley Cup playoff series by analyzing the playoff series between the St. Louis Blues and the Los Angeles (LA) Kings.
Both teams won their opening-round series in five games. While the Blues erased their 10-year series-winning playoff drought in impressive fashion by dispatching the San Jose Sharks, the 8th-seeded Kings pulled off the Stanley Cup playoff’s biggest upset by eliminating the top-seeded and President’s Trophy-winning Vancouver Canucks.
The Caps-Rangers series begins tomorrow and the Flyers-Devils match-up starts on Sunday.
I take a look at both series… No. 1 New York Rangers vs. No. 7 Washington Capitals — In the closing days of the regular season, many thought these teams would be meeting in the first round. Now, just about two weeks later, they’re facing off in the second round—the third time in the last four years that the Caps and Rangers have played each other in the postseason. In order for the Caps to earn a third consecutive series victory against the Rangers—and reach the conference finals for the first time since 1998 and only the third time in franchise history—they need to stick to the game plan: keeping the scores closer to 2-1 than 4-3 and milking Coach Dale Hunter’s system for all it’s worth.
No. 5 Philadelphia Flyers vs. No. 6 New Jersey Devils – The Flyers have been sitting around for almost a week wondering who they’re going to play next, while the Devils are coming off a double-overtime, game seven thriller last night. The Flyers spent six games beating up the Pittsburgh Penguins on the scoreboard, in the penalty box and pretty much everywhere else. That won’t be the case against the Devils, who are far better defensively than the Pens and won’t fall into the Flyers’ traps.
There is more on both series if you are interested, continue reading at fanspeak.com.
With the conclusion of the NHL Draft lottery last week, reality has begun to set in for Toronto Maple Leaf fans as they were not able to move up to the first pick in the upcoming draft. I thought I would take some time to look back at past fifth overall picks to see what kind of player the Maple Leafs might expect to get with this draft position.
I reviewed the last 33 NHL drafts from 1979 - 2011 and there are some very recognizable names that have been drafted with the fifth pick including Scott Stevens, Jaromir Jagr and Phil Kessel. There are also some names that I have never heard of like Daniel Dore.
In performing my analysis it was important that I made things as statistically driven as possible. To do this I developed the following player rating criteria:
100 – Star player: top 3 forward, top pair defenseman or an elite starting goalie.
50 – Good player: top 6 forward, top 4 defenseman or a starting goalie over multiple seasons.
25 – Role Player: forward or defenseman with 200+ games or a goalie with 100+ starts.
10 – Depth Player: forward or defenseman with 51-199 games or a goal with 51-99 starts.
5 – Minor League Player: forward or defenseman with 1-50 games or a goalie with 50 or less starts.
0 – Bust: drafted player with zero NHL games.
It wasn’t long ago that the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks were two of the best teams in the Western Conference — if not the league. Just last year, in fact, the Sharks were the No. 2 seed in the West and the Wings were No. 3. The Sharks eliminated the Wings in the Western Conference semifinals in seven games before losing to the Vancouver Canucks in the conference final. (Don’t worry, we’ll get to the Canucks in another post.) This year, though, the Wings were the No. 5 seed and the Sharks had to wait until the last couple days of the season to clinch a playoff spot — as the No. 7 seed.
Another regular season is behind us; before the playoffs begin, I thought it may be fun to share what 6 months of toil have taught me.
Anyone can win the Southeast division - and probably will. Thanks to the Panthers, it’s now the only division that all 5 of its members have won since the lockout. Like many, I had assumed that Dale Tallon’s collection of third-line stars would tread water in anticipation of younger stars emerging around them; their success this season speaks volumes not to Tallon’s genius but to the coaching ability of Kevin Dineen, a long-time candidate who I’m guessing several teams are now casting rueful eyes at.
When Brendan Burke, son of Toronto GM Brian Burke, was tragically killed in a car accident 2 years ago, it ignited a debate about homosexuals in hockey and sports and general. This debate raged everywhere from the mainstream media down to the blogs like this one. Whenever there was a post alluding to Brendan Burke or openly gay pro players, it seemed to always result in heated rhetoric on both sides. Despite being an extremely contentious issue, while still only in college, Brendan himself came out as openly gay and began to fight very publicly for acceptance of gay players within the game.
Restoring the red line will just open another can of worms, unless the other changes to the neutral zone are also reversed.
When they opened the game (supposedly) eliminating the 2 line pass, they also shortened the neutral zone by moving the blue line 2 ft closer to center ice**. They have also changed the faceoff positions. With the 2 line pass, the faceoff position was where the pass originated, but they have since changed the rules regarding the position of the faceoffs.
What would they do now..? According to today\‘s game logic a faceoff caused by a 2 line pass would be deep in the zone (faceoff circle right next to the net).
**At the same time, they moved the goal line back 2 ft. Increasing the defensive zone by 4 ft and making it nearly impossible to defend the points on the power play. This is one of the main reasons most teams best defense on the penalty kill is to collapse into the slot and try to block shots.
Looks like Sid has been cleared for contact and could be playing soon.
From the Penguins website,
Penguins captain Sidney Crosby has been cleared for full contact, but there is not timetable for a possible return to the lineup.
“I was cleared to do contact,” Crosby said. “We’ll see how that goes. There is no real timetable, but it’s a good step. Hopefully, I can keep the momentum and get out there soon.”
Crosby, who has been out of the lineup since Dec. 6 with concussion-like symptoms and a neck injury, has been symptom free for “a few days” and resumed contact practice with his teammates Tuesday afternoon.
“I’ve been through this before,” Crosby said. “Contact is the big step. It’s nice to be symptom free, but it’s not as fulfilling until you get out there. I just want to make sure that I take the right steps here and get back out there soon.”
Hockey Mom and family friend, Karen Schneider, has written a thoughtful article on Jack Jablonski.
Per Karen:
The story is now available on-line on the SI IPad app (for $4.99) and it will be available on the news stands tomorrow. I have attached the link to the free print version (minus photos) below. I hope you will read it, and, if the spirit moves you, spread the word, as a way to support Jack and his family and the efforts of the enormous but intimate family of hockey players, but not only hockey players: of all parents who have to face difficult truths and make hard decisions as we take on the complex, daunting task of raising our children, and, in the process, striving to be the best role models and people we can be, one inch at a time. Jack\‘s story has both broken me like no other, and lifted me like no other. He is a remarkable, inspirational kid.
By now I’m sure most of you are at least aware of Google’s social network in Google+. It has not taken over Facebook by storm, but has actually done quite well with certain niches. Tech-types love it (my Tech circle son their are insane with activity), and so do photographers and artists, and so on.
The one niche I have never been able to find on G+ though is sports, specifically hockey.
Are there any hockey reporters, bloggers, writers, etc, on Google+ to follow? I have yet to find any. And quite frankly, I would prefer G+ to Twitter even because Twitter’s mobile clients have gotten just awful and clunky (while G+‘s Android client has gotten fast and slick in the last few updates). And as for Facebook… the less said about it (and its awful mobile clients), the better.
If you know of any writers, bloggers, hockey media types, etc, to follow on G+, could you please post them? I’d like to get a Hockey Circle going, and I’m sure some others would like to get a Hockey Circle going as well. G+ seems like the perfect place for this sort of thing…
I’m so sick of the political BS on this forum. I watch hockey to escape the soul crushing state of the world. Enough. Put a pin in it. There’s plenty of places to demonize your neighbors and treat them as some kind of alien thing. This isn’t it. I want to hate you for liking the St. Louis Blues, or something equally as silly where the hate is a facade. I want to be called arrogant because my favorite team is the greatest team in all of sports. I don’t like seeing political views distorted and getting distilled AM radio comments on my favorite hockey blog.
It seems every time Thomas gets mentioned, certain posters feel it is their duty to defend Thomas (as if he needs it) or attack “libs,” “libtards” or some other variation of the enemy-other people construct to make it easier to attack or dismiss other views. It isn’t helpful. It isn’t constructive. It makes me think less of you when I read the silly knee-jerk political hack-job you post. Hockey is supposed to bring us together (at least as far as the rivalry lines anyway). This is a toxic subject, and is the worst aspect of Thomas’ rejection of the invitation.
One last thing, I have a MA in a social science directly related to politics. I’ve read way too much and studied this stuff for a long time. I deal with these subjects professionally, I have a full-time job where I teach and discuss this stuff. I don’t want to feel like I’m working when I check into KK. This is the site I hit when I’m supposed to be working and don’t want to deal with stuff like Tim Thomas and the White House.
So I was watching the highlights from the Lightning-Leafs game last night (7-3 TOR) and trying to think of a decent shakeup for TB, especially in net after watching what happened.
What about Nikolai Khabibulin for Dwayne Roloson straight up (or maybe a pick going with Rollie given Khabby’s play this year)? This would give Khabibulin the chance to return to a place where he has had success (‘04 Stanley Cup) and is comfortable and likewise with Roloson (‘06 Finals). In addition, it would get Khabby’s (1 year remaining on his deal) $3.75M off next year’s books for Edmonton while giving Tampa the time to figure out a long-term solution. The teams’ caps would barely be affected this year as Roloson’s cap hit on his one-year deal is $3.5M.
If Khabby can keep up his strong play upon his return to Tampa, it will give them a chance to turn things around a bit and possibly give them the shake up they need without having to rattle their core before they’re sure that’s necessary. In addition, it would be good for PR bringing back the cup-winning goaltender (although I’m not sure how bitter people are about Khabby darting to the $$ in Chicago upon becoming a UFA). This could give Tampa a good jolt without anything too drastic.
Does anyone else think this is feasible/a good way to shake things up in Tampa?
Just a couple of comments on the IIHF World Juniors so far.
Team USA has been very disappointing. After a good first game against Denmark (winning 11-3) it’s been pretty sparse for USA junior hockey. After loosing 4-1 to Finland, USA lost to the Czech Republic today and are done for the tournament. Not good.
Every time I watch the Juniors I wonder why the NHL doesn’t go to the modified icing rule they use.
Petr Mrazek (Detroit Red Wings) has looked pretty darn good. Even in the lose to Team Canada he looked decent. Hopefully the Wings have their goaltender for the future. Or at least a solid back-up (think Rask in Boston).
Canada is the cream of the crop again this year. Yea, that was obvious.
Recent conversation among pundits has been sobering with Crosby shut down and Ovechkin not playing like Ovechkin for the second season in a row. They claim that the NHL currently does not have a face because the two biggest names (they chose and marketed the eggs in one rivalry basket) are not currently the best players.
As Colonel Potter would say, horse hockey!
The NHL has a face, and it\‘s shared by two players! They happen to be twins who play on the top line for the Vancouver Canucks. Over the past two seasons they became the first brothers to alternately lead the league in points in consecutive seasons. They are the Sedin twins. It started in \‘09-\‘10 with Henrik winning the Art Ross and the Hart Memorial Trophies as well as making the first All-Star team. It continued last season, \‘10-\‘11, with Daniel winning the Art Ross Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award. Both brothers made the first All-Star team last season. The rise of the Sedin twins began after the lockout, in the \‘05-\‘06 season. After helping Sweden win Olympic Gold the Sedin twins completed their first breakout seasons together. (1)
But why hasn\‘t the NHL awakened to its current face[s]? Is it the same reason Nicklas Lidstrom was a bridesmaid three consecutive years before they had to hand him the Norris Trophy the following three years and not denied him any season since then that he has earned it, because he\‘s Swedish? (2) Or has the NHL finally gotten past the most ridiculous of all its prejudices only to fall into its worst one: The Sedin twins play for a Western Canadian team and that is simply not marketable to the rest of the league?
Yahoo`s Puck Daddy decided to dedicate more time than deserved to the lazy-sack-of-crap Dustin Penner, wondering why/when Penner is going to start producing for the Kings.
Ever since the Oilers delivered trucks of money to Penner to join their club, the guy has been, somewhat unfairly, expected to be a premium goal scorer in the NHL. Remember, Penner was undrafted and never given much notice until the Ducks gave him a shot. I`d never reject that kind of money thrown my way, but that doesn`t necessarily mean he was worth that much or would ever produce enough value.
A quick answer to Greg, and anyone else holding their breath: Stop expecting Penner to be a good player.
Look at Penner`s career stats. It`s pretty clear what his true level of play is.
Remember back in the late 80s when players like Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Hull, and Yzerman were racking up points; and Brendan Shanahan was racking up fights and PIMs? My how things have changed. Lemieux, having made his millions after freely roaming the ice for years protected by the likes of Troy Loney, Grant Jennings and Jay Caufield is now an owner. One that is more content bashing tough guys instead of respecting them. Shanahan, who first made his mark in the league because of his fists, is now dishing out suspensions at a torrid pace, as the league’s head disciplinarian.
The late 80s gave us a multidimensional game, full of both individual displays of scoring feats and enforcers who were actually allowed to enforce the game in the moment. Was the correlation a simple coincidence? Or did opposing players know that if they touched Wayne, Marty was coming for them? Or if Steve was touched, Bob wasn’t going to be far behind? Don’t even look at Brett cross-eyed… the Twister was watching your every move.
If you\‘re familiar with the Kuklas Korner stable of blogs and haven\‘t blocked any of them yet, then you\‘re very likely familiar with the Blog The Puck Stops Here. Actually, if you\‘ve blocked any of the blogs on Kuklas Korner from your main page feed (a very cool feature rolled out recently to members), then it\‘s even more likely that you\‘re familiar with this blog.
After a tweet by NHL.com`s Brian Metzer about James Neal`s stats in October(s), I joked that perhaps Mr. Neal is the new Mr. Savage. Thus far, Neal has 5 points in 5 games to start the season.
Is there something to this comparison?
Let`s look at Neal`s career month-by-month splits (Apologies for the formatting)
GP G A Pts PPG +/- Pct
October 40 19 16 35 0.875 7 0.178
November 29 12 10 22 0.759 1 0.146
December 42 16 11 27 0.643 -2 0.137
January 38 13 7 20 0.526 -7 0.143
February 31 7 7 14 0.452 -5 0.101
March 46 8 11 19 0.413 -6 0.075
April 13 2 3 5 0.385 2 0.067
Hmm, very good totals in October and November, and an obvious, steady, decline as the season wears on. This does look suspiciously like Brian Savage`s career, with a very clear trend.
Still, I think the reasons must be quite different. Neal plays a much more rambunctious style than Savage ever did, perhaps leading Neal to wear down as the season progresses. Also, Neal`s shots-per-game totals are consistent, while his shooting percentage declines. It`s not as if he`s not getting chances, he`s just not scoring.
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