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Abel to Yzerman

Playoffs Or Not?

The Wings have 15 games (8 road, 7 home) left before the Olympic break (February 9th) and are in a Wild Card spot at this point in time.

 

Post-break (February 26th), the Wings have 24 games left, 13 on the road, 11 at home.  Most hockey people say 95 points in the East will get a team in the playoffs.

With that, how do you like the playoff chances for the Wings?  According to SportsClubStats, the Wings have a 64.8% chance of making the post-season.

Your thoughts?

Here is their remaining games...

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Comments

Zqto's avatar

Does those “95 points to get into the playoffs” even consider the wildcards cenario?

I don’t believe that the Wings will cath up to the top 3 on our division, unless 1 of them gets into a really bad slump

But I also dont believe we are gonna lose a point race to the other teams outside, so I feel pretty confident on a playoff spot
Just wish we could get out of the wild cards, so we dont get Boston or Pitts on the first round, if we can avoid it (we will eventually have to face them, if we get far, anyway)

Posted by Zqto on 01/08/14 at 12:12 PM ET

Red Winger's avatar

As inconsistent as the Wings have been, a few teams have been more so. Luckily for the Wings, those teams just happen to be Toronto, Carolina, Ottawa, and the Rangers.

But it’s too close to call, in my opinion. Detroit has a tough schedule coming up. This one may well go down to the last day of the season.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie on 01/08/14 at 12:15 PM ET

mrfluffy's avatar

If this damned team could ever get healthy, they will catch the Habs and Bolts. I don’t think catching the Bruins is far out of the realm of possibility…IF they stay healthy and the rotating door of new lines and no chemistry halts.

Posted by mrfluffy from A wide spot on I-90 in Montana on 01/08/14 at 12:18 PM ET

Avatar

I’d be worried as another team to get the wings in the playoffs. As a lower seed they will have more road games then home games. That’s to their advantage…so far.

Still, I’d be okay with them not making the playoffs since I recently joined the Blackhawk bandwagon! Ha!

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 01/08/14 at 01:00 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

If 95 points really is the magic “cut-off” point, then the Wings need to accumulate 47 points in their remaining 39 games. That’s a record of something like 20-12-7, which is just a little better winning percentage than they’ve done so far.

Like others, I think everything depends on getting at least most of the team healthy. If guys like DK, E52, Helm, Franzen and (especially) Pavel can play the majority of the remaining games, they’ll probably make it. So, I guess everything rests in the hands of fate, the trainers and that SOB Jobu.

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 01/08/14 at 01:23 PM ET

SK77's avatar

According to SportsClubStats, the Wings have a 64.8% chance of making the post-season.

I’d say 65-70% chance is fair. If they play fairly decently and don’t crap the bed then they should make it in, maybe even grab the #3 spot in the Atlantic if Tampa absolutely now implodes that Marty St. Louis didn’t make Team Canada rolleyes

Posted by SK77 on 01/08/14 at 01:33 PM ET

SYF's avatar

Playing for the wild card spot.  Pitiful.

And in the meantime, we’re looking over our shoulders at three other guys just three points behind.  This edition of the Wings needs a winning streak like a junkie needs his fix.  It’s time to get greedy about winning.

Posted by SYF from the team that re-signed KFQ and DFC by KFH on 01/08/14 at 02:11 PM ET

MsRedWinger's avatar

I was also really surprised that St. Louis didn’t make Canada’s Olympic team.  I get that there are loads of really talented Canadian players, but Stevie Y is making the picks and Marty is the Captain of his team! I thought his experience, leadership and amazing work ethic and effectiveness would make him a lock. I heard Steven Stamkos being interviewed about it last night and he sounded really disappointed too.

Posted by MsRedWinger from Flori-duh on 01/08/14 at 02:58 PM ET

Avatar

Gotta say, I’m not exactly sure I’m a fan of how the NHL is cutting up playoff spots.  I think three from each division is a bit much.  I don’t think it’s been an issue yet, but pretty much the first time a team with 95 points doesn’t make it so a team with 93 in another division does, people are going to be pissed.

The NFL’s system (where the NHL is stealing this from, to ape them) is also pretty stupid, since it results in teams with better records not making the playoffs fairly regularly.

I have to think it’d be possible to get by with guaranteeing the top 2 teams from each division the 1-4 seeds based on points and then cutting up the rest between the next 4 qualifiers.  Was there really some sort of chance that a division wouldn’t get at least 3 of 8 playoff teams in any given year?  Seems like a stretch.

As far as Detroit’s playoff chances go:

-If they keep getting hurt they’ll be grinding for one of the last two spots.
-If they get and stay healthy, even just healthier, I think they’ll catch and pass Montreal for a #4 seed.

Posted by HockeyinHD on 01/08/14 at 03:22 PM ET

Avatar

As far as point-counting goes, make sure to remember we’re in the East now.  Since the lockout, 92, 92, 94, 93, 88, 93, 92, and 94 (prorated) got a team into the playoffs… and in a number of those years multiple teams got in under 95.

Heck, the #8 team in the East points wise right now (Washington) is only on pace for 90.

95 points pretty much guarantees a spot in the playoffs in the east, and Detroit’s on pace for 91.5 despite having the worst run of injuries I can remember the team ever having.

Posted by HockeyinHD on 01/08/14 at 03:32 PM ET

mrfluffy's avatar

Where’s Bill with his charts?

Posted by mrfluffy from A wide spot on I-90 in Montana on 01/08/14 at 04:00 PM ET

SYF's avatar

Where’s Bill with his charts?

Posted by mrfluffy from Long Beach on 01/08/14 at 03:00 PM ET

The Peloton of Suck charts were enormously helpful.

Posted by SYF from the team that re-signed KFQ and DFC by KFH on 01/08/14 at 04:47 PM ET

Avatar

Playing for the wild card spot.  Pitiful.

Exactly the same as last year.

Posted by Garth on 01/08/14 at 06:07 PM ET

dougie's avatar

Despite their up and down performance for what seems an eternity, we are talking aboot the fuching DETROIT RED WINGS.

Their chances of making the playoffs are 100%, until proven otherwise.

Posted by dougie on 01/09/14 at 12:25 PM ET

CaptainDennisPolonich's avatar

I don’t think catching the Bruins is far out of the realm of possibility…IF they stay healthy and the rotating door of new lines and no chemistry halts.
Posted by mrfluffy from Long Beach on 01/08/14 at 11:18 AM ET

Dude, I would love to have some of what you are smoking. It must be some really good shit.

Boston would have to lose five more games in regulation than the Wings. Even if the Wings get hot and reel off a 5-6 game winning streak, Boston would still have go on a significant losing streak for the Wings to catch up. Say the Wings win 10 in a row (and how likely is that?). Boston would have to go 5-5 in order for the Wings to just tie them. Boston hasn’t lost more than two games in a row all season and that has only happened 3 times. From November onwards, the worst Boston has played over any 10 game stretch is one stretch of 6-4-0. Detroit has had losing streaks of 4, 6 and 7 games (though those streaks included 9 charity points). It would take a monumental collapse on the part of Boston (and Tampa and Montreal, the two team between Boston and Detroit) in order to get first place in the division. I would consider it a minor miracle if the Wings were somehow able to over take Montreal for one of the guaranteed spots.

Mediocrity thy name is Red Wings. Like last season, the Wings find themselves in the worst possible position: not good enough to contend for the Cup and not bad enough to get into the lottery. Rebuilding on the fly was great before the cap with the Ilitch’s deep pockets and Kenny’s golden touch. But the salary cap is here to stay, the Ilitch’s have turned their focus to the Tigers and Kenny’s golden touch seems to have evaporated. Remember how the Blues always trumpeted that 25 year long playoff streak they had in the 80-90-00’s? They always made the playoffs but never had a chance at winning it all. That is your current Red Wings, folks. St. Louie sucked for a few years after the streak was over, but now they’re one of the 5 best teams in the league and they have a window of opportunity to win it all.

Fire Babcock and Holland. Poach Barry Smith back from the Hawks and Stevie Y back from the Lighting (or any coach and GM that will actually sign and play young players). Live and die for a few years with the kids and draft whoever Hakkan Anderson tells them to. After 2-3 three years of suckage, the Wings should have an 8-10 year window to challenge for the Cup.

 

Posted by CaptainDennisPolonich from The Land of Fake Boobs and Real Nuts on 01/09/14 at 01:49 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com