from Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press,
Seider's résumé puts him in line for a major pay raise from his entry-level contract, which paid $863,333 annually. Try a ten-fold increase, easily: It would be a boon for the Wings — freeing money to spend elsewhere this offseason — if Seider, most likely on an eight-year deal, comes in on around the same $8.7 million salary cap hit as captain Dylan Larkin.
But 24-year-old Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, the No. 1 pick in 2018, has a contract with an $11 million cap hit (starting next season). Dahlin has 185 points in 239 career games. If the Wings get Seider in single-digit millions, consider it a financial victory.
"I get both sides," Seider said. "In the end, it’s a business. I think it’s not a big secret I want to be a Red Wing, and I think I am confident that I could be a good asset for this organization. That really matters for me. Then you can talk as long as you want about numbers and how long a contract should be, but if those two first parts fit well, and they do, then I’m pretty confident we’ll get something done.
"I think it’s always a big dream for every player to be with a franchise for a long time. Either way, you just want to be here. If that’s multiple contracts, then that’s fine with me, too, but I just want to be part of that team and that locker room and play in front of those fans. That's what really matters to me."
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I like Mo, but in no world should he be around that $11mil number...that's just nuts. Dahlin shouldn't even be there, but good for him.
He has potential and all but I haven't been impressed with his play the last couple years. You can come up with reasons and excuses for him and they are valid, but a world-class player should still shine through (and not make positioning mistakes so often).
I wouldn't want to see him above $8mil/yr; I could see a bridge contract being something Stevie goes for, too, unless he really believes in his potential and wants to lock him in before he gets too pricey. And I don't believe he should be making more than Larkin.
He stinks, trade him. Should not even have played pee wee hockey.
The bar has been set for a while now. Dahlin got 11M; Power at 8.3. Heiskanen at 8.4. Werenski, Fox and Mcavoy at 9.5. Hell Seth Jones is even at 9.5. You could say Makar is "only" making 9M and Q Hughes only at 7.85, but those deals were signed a couple seasons ago under a tighter cap. Mo is going to make at least 8.5, and I don't think 9 or 9.5 is out of the question with the rising cap. Defensemen being the premium they are, I also expect the full 8 year lockup.
The more interesting contract to me is going to be Ray's. Does SY go long term or the bridge deal? I'd like to see a bridge deal, both as a bit of a "prove it" incentive, and to keep next couple season's cap down. But also because I have no idea what I'd consider a fair deal for him long term. Is he a 70 point player or a 90+ point player? A good bridge comparison contract might be Zegras (5.75M/3Yr). Long term contract comps are kind of all over the place. Maybe Cole Caufiled (7.8M) or Tim Stutzle (8.3)? Maybe Matt Boldy (7M)?
If the two of them come in anywhere below 15M combined i think I'm calling that a win.
Dahlin got 11M
BECAUSE Dahlin started playing in the NHL at 18 yrs old. His ELC ended (2 months after he turned) 21 yrs old (as he has an April birthday). He then took a bridge deal for 3 years taking him to 24 years old and therefore was arbitration eligible his 4th year during his bridge deal.
Seider had his ELC slide (and thus his arbitration age). He has not completed that 4th year required to be arbitration eligible.
That is why Dahlin had leverage and Seider does not.
A bridge deal is not the way to go. Bridges are valuable if a GM isn't certain about a player and is afraid to commit cap space because they don't know if the player can be a game breaker in the future (Ras, Hronek, Zadina, and even Veleno's 1 year deal) but was drafted high enough to believe. It saves money in the short-term, but with huge costs for what would have been years 4-8 on a max extension IF the player "hits." Seider with a Calder and now 3 seasons playing top pair mins has that proven track record.
The 2nd big thing a max extension does is that it provides cost certainty--where the GM has his top pair d-man locked in for years and can build a roster around him (just like Larkin did with his).
I see different comparables as the best prediction:
8 yrs x 8.5M for Seider (MAX). Something in the $8-8.5M is a fair deal.ALL of this. You basically stated exactly what I would have.
Seider is EXACTLY the kind of player you give the 8x9mil (or thereabouts) deal to.
I absolutely love Raymond. He's the guy I wanted them to take his draft year. But I think a bridge deal is appropriate and gives Detroit much more flexibility over the next 2-3 years. I'm hoping for that but won't complain a bit if he gets his also.
I would not bridge Raymond. As I stated above Bridges are valuable if a GM isn't certain about a player and is afraid to commit cap space because they don't know if the player can be a game breaker in the future.
Raymond with 2 of his 3 years at 20+ goals (and his nearest at 30+) would represent the kind of player you want to lock up long term.
Raymond is also short of years required for arbitration (only 3 of 4 fulfilled) so he doesn't have that leverage yet.
If you wanted to bridge him there is a direct comparable:
Trevor Zegras' 3 yrs @ $5.75M.
Trade them all, trade them now!
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