from Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News,
The remaining four games on this challenging five-game road trip begin Tuesday in Washington. Those improbable Capitals, who were sellers at the trade deadline, snuck ahead of the Wings for the second and final Eastern Conference wild-card spot Sunday with a 3-0 victory over Winnipeg.
The Capitals have 79 points, the Wings 78. The New York Islanders also are lurking behind the Wings, as are several other teams who still have a pulse of the pillow fight this race has been at times, with no one taking absolute charge.
After Washington, the Wings visit powerful Carolina (Thursday), Florida (Saturday) and Tampa Bay (April 1). There's a good chance by this time next week, the Wings' fate will be decided.
Exciting, feel-good story. Or an ugly, disappointing ending.
"If you ask any guy in that room before the season if we could be in this position, everyone would take it," Larkin said before the start of this trip, with such important, meaningful games on the horizon. "You know there's going to be bumps, and we've shown that we can stick together.
"We're at the time of year where you're playing every other day. It's hard. Going through adversity, we'll see what it does for us. But I don't think the way we've come out of it (a seven-game losing streak, followed by winning three of five) it's a bad thing."
read on ($)
Just win, baby.
One game at a time.....
SportsCluStats tonight lists the Wings with a 51.9% chance to make the playoffs.
The Athletic ($) says 32%
The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each teams projected strength, current health and strength of schedule (which includes opponent strength, venue and rest). Each teams projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster, which is based on their Offensive and Defensive Rating.
In all honesty, I think the 32% number is more realistic. Tough competition. Question marks about the ability of a number of Wings players to rise to the occassion. And goaltending. Those are all factors that don't necessarily favor the Wings. So it's going to be a very interesting 11 games.
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