from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic,
It was Red Wings vs. Lightning, January 21. By many eyewitness accounts, it was a Moritz Seider masterclass in shutdown defense. He went toe-to-toe with Nikita Kucherov for 86 percent of his ice time and lived to tell the tale, keeping the shot and goal count even.
That’s the job of a No. 1 shutdown defenseman and he aced it.
The postgame reports analyzing his work through raw data weren’t nearly as complimentary, though. That’s been an increasingly common occurrence through the back half of this season: Red Wings fans swear by Seider’s performance, but the numbers don’t back it up. Top of their hearts, bottom of the charts.
Usually when there’s a gap between the two schools of thought the truth lies somewhere in the middle. In this case, there’s something clearly missing in the equation that shifts the balance toward what many saw that night.
Seider faced off against Kucherov for roughly 15 of his 17 minutes at five-on-five, one of the most difficult defensive assignments any player has had to face this season. What should his numbers look like?
This season Seider has a Defensive Rating of minus-6.9. That means Detroit is estimated to have allowed seven more goals compared to an average player because of Seider, an extremely porous number that ranks 181st out of 189 regular defenders.
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from Max Bultman of The Athletic,
The emotional swings surrounding the Red Wings right now are dizzying.
Anticipation and tension bubble before every game. Detroit has bounced almost daily onto either side of the playoff cut line. Each loss is met with cries from outside that the season is over.
Inside the Red Wings locker room, though, the tenor is different. Make no mistake, Detroit knows the stakes its facing every game. The Red Wings know what theyre up against, entering Thursday two points back of the Capitals for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, with one fewer game (10) left to play. But while it may be easy to see the sub-30 percent playoff odds, and the schedule that awaits them, and declare that the postseason ship has indeed sailed, the Red Wings are not ready to do so.
Whats their belief level at this point, on the heels of a gutting overtime loss Tuesday in Washington?
Very high, Moritz Seider said Wednesday. I mean, its all in our own hands.
Detroit does, in truth, need a bit of help at this point due to the Capitals game in hand and regulation wins tiebreaker. But Seider pointed out the Red Wings still have a head-to-head game with the Capitals on the schedule, on April 9 in Detroit. And while the Red Wings focus cant afford to drift beyond their next game at any point in the next three weeks, Seider added that the team knows it realistically will probably have to steal at least one of its many tough games remaining much easier said than done, to be sure, but not something the locker room is nearly as quick to write off as the public has been.
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This season Seider has a Defensive Rating of minus-6.9.
Does anyone know how they calculate this stat?
I am not here to say Seider is above all criticism, but honestly, Ive watched the Wings losing streaks, and poor defensive ratings arent even halfway on him. He plays the toughest minutes on a team that often just will not forecheck, so they spend long stretches defending on the back foot. To make it worse, his teammates make brutally bad decisions with the puck in their own zone, so they spend long stretches defending on the back foot. Thats gonna leave a mark on the stat sheet.
The real headline to me is the poor defensive structure on this team, starting with the forewards and working back. Thats on coaching.
The full article actually addresses this, as well as Seider's deployment.
The -6.9 defensive rating was based on the previous model, which systematically undervalued the impact of quality of competition.
Dom discusses how he recently was able to obtain additional data that helps set a better expected baseline based on difficulty of minutes. One finding here is that Seider isn't just getting the toughest minutes on the Red Wings. He's getting the toughest minutes of any defenseman in the entire NHL.
Under the new version of the model, with a much more aggressive quality of competition adjustment, Seider's defensive impact looks much better, although it's still not great.
One thing that still isn't clear to me based on the article is what kind of adjustments are being made based on defensive impact of teammates. My eye test impression is that a lot of Detroit's defensive woes can be blamed on lack of support from the forwards. So Seider is not only playing the toughest opponents, but he's also getting hung out to dry by his teammates. I wouldn't be surprised if the model still isn't giving this enough credit, though I certainly know that my eye test is far from perfect.
"He's getting the toughest minutes of any defenseman in the entire NHL."
I can't tell you the source, but I remember hearing somewhere that Seider/Walman were getting something like top 5 toughest minutes of any pairing in the last 15 years.
Appreciate the added insight Sven. And I totally agree with your points.
I would really like to see the Wings stats with respect to unforced icings and unforced turnovers versus other teams. If hockey kept a stat like Errors in baseball, I bet the Wings would be in the top 20%.
My issue is also inability to clear the zone when our players have the puck on their stick with Copp leading the way.
I would have more to say about Copp if I did not see the entire team doing it. Its a team behavior. You play how you practice. Who runs practices?
The Grand Rapids Griffins are in the playoffs. Kevin Allen with the story.
It's been a long time since GR did much developing......especially in terms of playoff experience.
Watson and players have done an amazing job. First playoffs since 2019!
Go Griffs!!!!
Cossa has been incredible lately. Hes got quite a win streak going. He started slow but once he figured it out and found is groove at the AHL level, hes been unbeatable.
I have very high hopes that at least one of Cossa or Augustine can cure our Cup goalie drought.....
I can't help but wonder if Seider's lack of development is coaching related. Is it Boughner?
Seider is 22 years old and playing as a #1 dman on a team that has frequent defensive breakdowns and poor depth/health at center. Of course he's going to make mistakes and have some bad stretches of play.
Mo is going to be a great dman for a long time, we just have to let him keep evolving. Call this a team induced sophomore slump.
The defensive structure and center depth is the real problem with this team IMO.
Seider bought himself a ton of credibility with his standout rookie year - he exceeded all expectations you could set for an 18(?) year old. But since then, there's been some regression in parts of his game.
This season, I honestly don't think him and Walman have had the best chemistry together. If you pay attention, they both have a tendency to chase the same puck carrier behind the net, sometimes crossing over from one side to another. This opens up the slot and the Wings have given up a lot of goals (and even more chances) to players who glide into the slot and bang in a puck completely undefended. Seider and Walman are both guilty of it, which is frustrating to see and frankly shouldn't be happening at the NHL level.
Seider played a more offensive style game his first season and he's backed off that to be more of a defensive presence in the O-zone. That's hurt his numbers a bit, but I don't think that's really an issue. For me the concern is the D-zone coverage.
The good news is, he's young and has all the right tools there. He's just got to button them up. Being the unquestionable best Dman on the team doesn't help with his age, either, so hopefully they can provide him more support so he doesn't have to carry such a heavy load.
Walman should not be his partner unless he's literally the last person available. For reasons you stated and imo Walman isn't very good defensively in general.
Seider needs a defensive D partner.
I just made comments on this a few days ago in the Washington 1 point not enough article.
I know Seider is the new can't do anything wrong and look what he might become. But he's had an awful year while trying to round out his game. And it starts with 1 factor. He is less engaged physically (I doubt any coach is telling him not to--but he is in a contract year like it or not so maybe an agent is in his head?) He still has the occasional game or two. But I see him constantly reaching with his stick to poke instead of driving a guy through the boards all the time now. The nasty checks that make superstars weary of making a play--gone.
So that part is on Seider, but as others have pointed out Walman is not a #1 d-man. I would put him at a #2 except for Chiarot's year. So to me you have a 3rd pairing guy playing on the top pair. Asking Chiarot to play 1st pair is a recipe for disaster--btw. But Walman has been awful and his gambling hasn't paid off like last year. And the results are speaking to that (from +10 to +/- 0 this year).
So to me you have to move Maatta and some other assets and get that #1 capable LHD this off-season.
Want to switch assistant/associate coaches for someone better at development fine. But too many of the Wings have played enough to know what they should be doing. And next year given their contracts little will change. It's on Stevie to make a change.
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