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Abel to Yzerman

You’ll Probably Want To Discuss The Draft Lottery

Gary Bettman will be addressing this.

 

added 4:43pm,

 

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Comments

Paul's avatar

John Niyo tweet,

So the initial NHL draft lottery will be held June 26, and Red Wings’ odds are going to be the same as they would’ve been had regular season been completed in full. Still 18.5 shot at No. 1 pick, and almost 50 percent shot at top three. But no help like Wings fans were hoping.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 05/26/20 at 05:00 PM ET

The Meal's avatar

Posted by The Meal from Firestone, CO on 05/26/20 at 05:09 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

So are the Wings no longer guaranteed a top 4 pick?

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 05/26/20 at 06:15 PM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

What in the absolute EFF is this plan?

League play returns July 1.
Draft isn’t going to be until later, maybe October.
But they’re going to draw June 26 and hope teams A-H don’t get selected?
If they do, what does that mean, all the balls back to the basket, or is the second phase teams A-H in a lotto for 1-3 spot that it was awarded? 

Why wouldn’t they just wait until Aug 1st when the 1st round of the teams are knocked out, and then all the balls are identified?

What am i missing other than the NHL can be work like a monkey’s butthole sometimes?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/26/20 at 06:24 PM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

So are the Wings no longer guaranteed a top 4 pick?

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 05/26/20 at 06:15 PM ET

Yes, only the top 3 are up for grabs, so the wings can drop no lower than 4.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/26/20 at 06:25 PM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/26/20 at 06:25 PM ET

Sorry, yes they are still guaranteed a top 4 pick, with only the top 3 are up for grabs, the wings can drop back no lower than 4.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/26/20 at 06:26 PM ET

Ataris18's avatar

This just sounds dumb. I’m. It sure why you give a team a chance at playoffs then give them a chance at top three pick.  I get this doesn’t change things much but if you’re changing playoffs I figure it’s ok to change draft.  The 7 out of it should be in the lottery from my view. Do a lottery for 1 through 7 spots then lottery for 8 through what 15? Etc. But this just seems silly.

Posted by Ataris18 from House on 05/26/20 at 07:50 PM ET

The Meal's avatar

So return-to-play games between teams ranked 24-9 are not considered Playoff games.  I’m sure the distinction means something for NHL partner contracts (such as my subscription to Center Ice and my chance of getting some sort of return on my payments).  However, my question is whether that also applies to the overtime rules for those games.  Will they use the playoff sudden-death resolution, or, because these are considered regular-season games, are they obligated to use 3-on-3 rules?

Anyway, the draft lottery is absolutely unchanged for the 7 teams outside of the return-to-play games.  They still do a lottery, but there’s a placeholder for those 8 teams which lose in the return-to-play head-to-head series.  If any of those 8 teams happens to get drawn (jumping up to a top-3 draft position), then there is a second draft to determine *which* of those 8 teams actually gets to jump up in the draft.  It’s rather silly, and the explanation on the call was ridiculous, but the net effect is that nothing really changes (excepting the timing of a hypothetical near-playoff team finding out they “won” the lottery).  Wings can still do no worse than 4th in the draft (though there’s a nearly 50% chance they do draft in that #4 slot).

Posted by The Meal from Firestone, CO on 05/26/20 at 08:11 PM ET

Avatar

If teams know a return-to-play team has won a top 3 pick, is it possible a team would tank their series giving themselves a pretty decent shot at that pick. Perhaps Arizona, Chicago, Montreal or some other team that knows damn well their chances of winning the Cup is incredibly slim?

This odd process definitely fits the NHL.

Posted by evileye on 05/26/20 at 09:40 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar

With the Bettman magic, the Red Wings will probably draft lower than where they finished for the fourth year in a row. So expect the fourth pick. angry

Posted by bigfrog on 05/26/20 at 09:49 PM ET

d ca's avatar

If teams know a return-to-play team has won a top 3 pick, is it possible a team would tank their series giving themselves a pretty decent shot at that pick. Perhaps Arizona, Chicago, Montreal or some other team that knows damn well their chances of winning the Cup is incredibly slim?
This odd process definitely fits the NHL.
Posted by evileye on 05/26/20 at 09:40 PM ET

Definitely a possibility.

My hope is all 3 top spots are won by #8-15 teams and then teams of those play-in games tank so obviously it is embarrassing. Then, at that 2nd draft Buttman has to answer questions on obvious tanking.

After that I hope the cap goes down 40% due to all the money the NHL is wasting on testing and expenses of holding these sham playoff games with some teams at .500 winning percentage. It reminds me of Gore’s Piston playoff ultimatum only to see them get destroyed by Milwaukee with Charles Barkley cracking jokes before, during, and after the games about them.

Posted by d ca on 05/27/20 at 12:15 AM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

Posted by evileye on 05/26/20 at 09:40 PM ET
Posted by d ca on 05/27/20 at 12:15 AM ET

Big memorial day sale on the tin foil for those spectacular hats eh boys?

You guys really think NHL coaches and players on a roster give a rip about a draft pick they would have a 1 in 7 chance on and would tank? Come on. Especially in the NHL where a low seed can win, especially in this shortened tournament style format someone where a hot goalie or some lucky bounces can get a team advanced.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/27/20 at 07:37 AM ET

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If teams know a return-to-play team has won a top 3 pick, is it possible a team would tank their series giving themselves a pretty decent shot at that pick.

They won’t know they get a top pick until they lose out on the qualification round AND have the re-lottery done.

I’d expect exactly as many players to try and throw the series as there are players who actively try to tank in any given season.

Posted by BaromirBragr on 05/27/20 at 09:14 AM ET

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Big memorial day sale on the tin foil for those spectacular hats eh boys?

You guys really think NHL coaches and players on a roster give a rip about a draft pick they would have a 1 in 7 chance on and would tank? Come on. Especially in the NHL where a low seed can win, especially in this shortened tournament style format someone where a hot goalie or some lucky bounces can get a team advanced.

While I think it is highly unlikely, I do think it is possible considering the circumstances:

1. A 1 in 7 shot is a pretty decent chance. Hopefully the NHL won’t be foolish enough to announce more than one 8-15 team moved up into the top 3.

2. Bowing out early gets them home with the families and away from quarantine.

3. I don’t agree that any team can win. When was the last time a real underdog won The Cup. LA might have been a #8 seed but they were far from a typical #8 team. They had all the tools in place to be a winner. Last year the Blues clearly were on a roll heading in and several people had picked them before the season to win The Cup. Looking at post-original 6 I don’t see a single team that really was a shock to win The Cup. There were plenty that made the finals but none finished it.

4.  This really isn’t a shortened tournament. In fact, it is lengthen for some teams. They are still playing best of 7 series once the final 16 is set. Deeper more experienced rosters will probably prevail.

Hell, all this is merely talk to me. I’m already sickened by how the lottery is done. I imagine I won’t be the only one stark raving mad if Pittsburgh, Toronto or Edmonton gets a top 3 pick.

Posted by evileye on 05/27/20 at 09:36 AM ET

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In fact, it is lengthen for some teams.

In fact, it’s not. No team is going to be playing 10 games, whereas most teams would be playing at least 10 games if the actual season resumed.

I do think it is possible considering the circumstances

You think there’s a team going “we should lose, because then we’ll get a 1 in 8 chance of maybe getting a lottery pick”?

Posted by BaromirBragr on 05/27/20 at 09:43 AM ET

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So are the Wings no longer guaranteed a top 4 pick?

This doesn’t change anything for the Wings, they’re still guaranteed a top four pick and have the same lottery odds as they would if this season had ended normally.

Posted by BaromirBragr on 05/27/20 at 09:44 AM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

Posted by evileye on 05/27/20 at 09:36 AM ET

Your ignoring that the Owner/GM is not playing on the ice. There’s no coach or player wants to lose when there’s a chance to win.  The incentive for a pick is what, a player coming in taking my job my ice time my role?  Maybe the team’s core players might see that as help in 2-3 years.

Unlike any other season, a low seed can win, this will be a crap shoot.  Team A could go into a series with say Pittsburgh and Matt Murray and Malkin could come down with Covid and be sidelined for 14 days.  All of these teams are also coming off a 2 month layoff, how does a 50 year old Chara react to that as an example. Last year the CBJs swept the pre-season and season long in 4 straight

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/27/20 at 09:54 AM ET

Avatar

In fact, it is lengthen for some teams.

In fact, it’s not. No team is going to be playing 10 games, whereas most teams would be playing at least 10 games if the actual season resumed.

The discussion was about the proposed tournament vs a normal Stanley Cup playoffs. Every team still needs to win a minimum of 16 games to claim the Cup. Some teams will have to win 19 games.

Posted by evileye on 05/27/20 at 10:15 AM ET

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The discussion was about the proposed tournament vs a normal Stanley Cup playoffs.

OK fine, then it’s lengthened for *everyone* because all 24 teams will be playing in the qualifying round.

Posted by BaromirBragr on 05/27/20 at 10:44 AM ET

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After that I hope the cap goes down 40% due to all the money the NHL is wasting on testing and expenses of holding these sham playoff games with some teams at .500 winning percentage.

Are the playoffs always a sham when there are teams at .500 winning percentage? That would mean four of the last five playoffs were shams.

Posted by BaromirBragr on 05/27/20 at 10:51 AM ET

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All this talk has been about the 24 team tournament. Was there any talk of warm-up games before the tournament or are all teams going in “cold”? That sounds like a recipe for some ugly hockey and numerous injuries. I imagine the goalies who are about to become UFAs can’t be too thrilled with that. Better have a good backup goaltender. Slow starters need not apply.

Posted by evileye on 05/27/20 at 11:10 AM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

After that I hope the cap goes down 40% due to all the money the NHL is wasting on testing and expenses of holding these sham playoff games with some teams at .500 winning percentage.
Posted by d ca on 05/27/20 at 12:15 AM ET

You do know the CAP is based on revenue right? so the expense of doing whatever doesn’t matter?

Your likely to get your wish if they can’t sell tickets to the playoffs and have to refund the balance of the regular season.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/27/20 at 11:19 AM ET

Steeb's avatar

Big memorial day sale on the tin foil for those spectacular hats eh boys?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/27/20 at 07:37 AM ET

The fact remains that, should the lottery determine that, say, the mythical “Team C” wins the #1 overall pick, the teams who made the play-in round and lose have a 12.5% chance at being Team C in the phase 2 lottery. And that’s if there’s only one that jumps to the top 3. 12.5% is BETTER odds than the team with the 3rd worst record in the league (which, I know, was SJ and OTT owns their pick). The idea behind the draft lottery was to dis-incentive-ise teams tanking in the regular season. Naturally, Bettman has found a way to incentivise tanking in the playoffs.

What a world.

Posted by Steeb on 05/27/20 at 01:48 PM ET

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We finally finished last to have the best chance at a franchise player and now Ottawa has better odds because of the trades they made. That’s unfortunate

Posted by VPalmer on 05/27/20 at 09:18 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/27/20 at 07:37 AM ET

I hope vs likely to happen

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 05/27/20 at 07:37 AM ET

My point was why hold it with placeholders….no reason to hold this draft and include teams playing for the Cup. It’s the NHL messing with the draft just like they did for the Crosby draft, the MacKinnon draft (getting rid of the 4 spot movement), the McDavid draft (lower the weighting of the very worst teams)...it’s constantly punishing the worst teams…and that means the Red Wings this year…which is the exact opposite of the reason to hold a draft.

As far as a viable scenario for a top team to lose. Don’t put it past Edmonton losing to the Hawks…Kane is a player with enough speed to actually neutralize McDavid. Seabrook who had surgery in Dec was expect to miss 5-6 months (thus the entire season), but now he very may well be back in time for these games and between him and Keith this might be their last hurrah. That’s a strong motivating factor. Add in Crawford playing for a contract and to stave off father time. This rest helps older teams and hurts younger teams.

Plus you just know Athanasiou or Green will commit a horrible turnover that will cost them a game.

Then Edmonton will mysteriously win another 1st overall pick despite having collected 83 pts (vs the Wings 39)—-> that’s one of two reasons why I hope the cap goes down so much. Force these teams that cried for parity to see what it is like having to jettison fan favorites in the name of cap space.

Yes, the cap is based on a split of HRR so the cost of these playoffs doesn’t directly impact the salary cap—-my line of thinking has to do what will happen to costs of tickets when these teams profits are hugely impacted by the costs they have to incur for medical testing: that is once fans are permitted back (and feel safe enough to actually go)—-but having no fans does and that is what is my issue. Holding sham playoff series in hub cities with no fans will increase the likelihood the NHL squeezes in games without fans next year.  Then what happens to the cap when less than 85% of games were completed without full attendance? You know these owners and the league will try to recoup it somehow—and since I am the consumer that is going to mean it becomes more expensive for me. Besides, I just want two compliance buyouts that don’t count against the cap and a huge drop in the cap would force the issue. that’s the other reason.

Posted by d ca on 05/28/20 at 12:01 AM ET

d ca's avatar

The idea behind the draft lottery was to dis-incentive-ise teams tanking in the regular season. Naturally, Bettman has found a way to incentivise tanking in the playoffs.

What a world.

Posted by Steeb on 05/27/20 at 01:48 PM ET

+1

Posted by d ca on 05/28/20 at 12:08 AM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com