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Abel to Yzerman

Draft Lottery Odds Need To Change

from Ansar Khan of Mlive,

The seventh-best team during the regular season could land the No. 1 pick in the NHL entry draft.

The Pittsburgh Penguins accumulated 86 points in 69 games for a .623 points percentage before the NHL season paused on March 12 due to the coronavirus pandemic. They were on pace for 102 points.

The Penguins were fifth in the Eastern Conference, missing out on a bye into the first round of the playoffs. They will play 12th seeded Montreal in the qualifying round. If Pittsburgh loses that best-of-five series, it will join the other seven qualifying round losers in the second phase of the draft lottery.

Each of the eight teams has a 12.5 percent chance of securing the top pick, certain to be left wing Alexis Lafreniere.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings, who finished 23 points below the next-worst team – with 47 fewer points than the Penguins -- and posted the worst points percentage (.275) for a non-expansion team since 1997-98, will select fourth, as determined by Friday’s first lottery phase.

continued

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Comments

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from Ansar Khan of Mlive

I wonder how different this article is from the one written by a Buffalo Sabres digger in 2015, or by Adrian Dater in 2017 or from the Ottawa Citizen in 2019.

Posted by BaromirBragr on 06/30/20 at 09:53 AM ET

WingedRider's avatar

This was Bettman’s bungled attempt to appease all teams “I tried” .  He is an idiot and hopefully leave , the sooner the better.

%‘s and the manner of which team dropped spots was made by the Lunatic.

To appease Wings Fans (which will never happen) some Hockey clowns point to the Wings success drafting low in the past, past being 20 yrs.  The Lidstroms, Datsyuk being picked with low picks are gone.

The Wings still have a great European Scout but is actually very slim odds if even he can find a diamond after the 2nd round .

Bettman is run by 3 OLD owner farts (maybe one passed).  If the draft was held using the Pandemic point would the playoff teams changed, maybe one team. 

Why the other Bettman Sheep couldn’t be honest and tell Bettman he was off his rocker is beyond me.

This is the 1st and hopefully last time I comment on this joke of a draft.  Dropping 4 spots when a team is the worst in the NHL, easily, is like a nightmare.

The league is run by a small group of owners that Bettman always follows.

WTH, I hope some team like the Penguins get the 1st pick with odds being worse than in Vegas.

Posted by WingedRider from Saskatoon, SK on 06/30/20 at 02:30 PM ET

Avatar

Dropping 4 spots when a team is the worst in the NHL, easily, is like a nightmare.

Did I miss all your similar complaints when Colorado dropped to 4th a few years ago? Or was that cheering and laughter?

Posted by BaromirBragr on 06/30/20 at 02:53 PM ET

Paul's avatar

No need to respond to Baromir…

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 06/30/20 at 03:10 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

No need to respond to Baromir…

Posted by Paul from Motown Area

Oh, oh.  cheese

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 06/30/20 at 03:54 PM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

I’d like to see a rule where a team that gets the 1st overall pick can’t pick first overall again for 10 years or until their 1st overall pick is out of the league or something similar. And maybe have it so that if you win the 2nd or 3rd pick lottery then you can’t win one of those slots again for a year or two as well.  If one of those teams wins then move them up a bit but not into the top 3 or 5.

That might make the very bad teams drop fewer spots and protect against better teams getting too lucky.

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 06/30/20 at 04:25 PM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

I actually don’t mind not rewarding a team for being bad.  The counter to that, is the NHL CBA is a beyatch to rebuild with, the most rigid of all sports.

Take the wings fan out of me, and I will still never like what they did this year, the teams are in this round robin are still playing post season hockey. 

All around this was just unnecessary, just wait 2 months. 

Raise your hand if anyone outside of diehard fans already loyal to the brand garnered interest in doing the draft this way.  So now they get a second draft and the attention is what, people calling your sport clownish?

Here’s a legit question, and if this was answered and I missed it, please tell me, what if, this post season never happens? What if Covid or this new chinese wine flu, or killer honets or Putin puts nukes in the butts of the Russian players coming back to camps. Who picks #1?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 06/30/20 at 05:41 PM ET

Avatar

I think the backup placeholder in case no placeholder can be
determined by play-in elimination is Boston

Posted by lefty.30 on 06/30/20 at 06:23 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar

WTH, I hope some team like the Penguins get the 1st pick with odds being worse than in Vegas.

Pittsburgh or Chicago. Two of Gary’s favorites. Remember 2009 and 2013?  mad

Posted by bigfrog on 06/30/20 at 09:34 PM ET

damndog revenge   From the bowels of Detroit's avatar

What if Covid or this new chinese wine flu, or killer honets or Putin puts nukes in the butts of the Russian players coming back to camps. Who picks #1?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 06/30/20 at 05:41 PM ET

Lol! Beautiful! Sorry to dismiss everything else but that is funny shit!

Posted by damndog revenge From the bowels of Detroit on 06/30/20 at 10:01 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Here’s a legit question, and if this was answered and I missed it, please tell me, what if, this post season never happens? What if Covid or this new chinese wine flu, or killer honets or Putin puts nukes in the butts of the Russian players coming back to camps. Who picks #1?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 06/30/20 at 05:41 PM ET

They still hold a draft with the 8 lowest point totals (instead of the losing teams from those play-in games). Each team has a 12.5% chance.

Bob McKenzie’s twitter feed:

If the 2019-20 Return to Play does not occur for any reason, the teams with the 8th to 15th lowest points percentage at the pause would equal shots (12.5 per cent) at getting the No. 1 overall pick. Keep in mind, though, not all those teams may not own their first-round pick.

It’s my understanding it’s the eight worst point percentages OUTSIDE of those teams that were in playoff positions based on point percentages at the pause. So VAN and CGY would have been in the playoffs, hence they would not be lottery teams.

As long as my math isn’t off, which is possible, the 8 through 15 teams in points percentage at the pause are: 8. MTL (.500), 9. CHI (.514), 10. ARI (.529), 11. MIN (.558), 12. WPG (.563), 13. NYR (.564), 14. FLA (.565), 15. CBJ (.579).

Posted by d ca on 06/30/20 at 11:13 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

I’m putting on my tin-foil hat for a moment here:

Is anyone else a little unsettled by the lack of transparency around the actual choice of the draft order?  I was expecting to see the balls bounce or some other random-number-generator type of process unfold, but all we got was a stack of cards with a predetermined order already in place.  Whenever I do the draft for our fantasy hockey league, I film it and send it to everyone so there’s no hint of impropriety.  Seems kind of odd they didn’t do something similar.

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/01/20 at 02:05 PM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/01/20 at 02:05 PM ET

So you film it do you Dave? How many “takes” did it take you to land that premium spot?

Joking, I would hope with something this important, there were witnesses a plenty, but stranger things have happened.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerGod's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 07/01/20 at 04:41 PM ET

RWBill's avatar

I was expecting to see the balls bounce or some other random-number-generator type of process unfold, but all we got was a stack of cards with a predetermined order already in place.
Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/01/20 at 02:05 PM ET

I have said the same thing for 2 years, HD.  One of the most exciting things the NHL could do would be to conduct the lottery ball drawing LIVE, broadcast worldwide on TV and NHL.com.

NHL publishes all of the 4-number combinations and their assignments to the teams on their web site.  Why not draw it live with fans worldwide following along with their lists of numbers.  The list is published by team, for instance Detroit with “all” of its 185 combinations, and also by straight numeric order, i.e., 1-2-3-4, 1-2-3-5, etc, all the way to 11-12-13-14.

I do completely fail to understand why NHL, Inc., must continue to do things with a lack of transparency, other than understanding that Gary Bettman is the Commissioner.

This is an opportunity for NHL, Inc., to capture the attention of the hockey fan base worldwide for an exciting live event.  Instead they continue in their m.o. of perpetuating that things are not done on the up and up.  Why draw in secret first then do a “reveal event”.  Gag me with a wooden hockey stick.  NHL does suck at many things.

 

 

Posted by RWBill on 07/01/20 at 04:55 PM ET

Primis's avatar

I’m just having a tough time caring anymore.  It seems like everything the NHL does anymore is designed to put fans off.

We’re beyond draft odds needing to change.  It seems like every week there’s something new that we as fans hate about the NHL.

The NHL needs to change.  A lot.  Not one or two things.

Or else there won’t be any fans left to infuriate.

Posted by Primis on 07/01/20 at 09:20 PM ET

WingedRider's avatar

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/01/20 at 02:05 PM ET
Lack of Transparency is a sign of Bettman lying. For me!

Good points made!!!

I personally don’t trust (and probably never will) Bettman and his Group of Dinosaur owners

Posted by WingedRider from Saskatoon, SK on 07/02/20 at 01:00 AM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com