I would give him 3 years with a M-NTC.  I don't get paid enough to take any guesses at how much I'd pay him.  

If you'd have asked me in October if I would give him 3 years, I'd say nope.  But after watching him average 18:22 coming off that surgery???  I'm a believer.

Right fit being important? I do not like the sound of it. Not once he even said that he would like to stay here.

Skip to approx 3:35 mark.

Look he said he would like to stay to a hockey insider when they talked. If not making the playoff changed that--then nothing can be helped. But it's clear he wants longer than a 1 year deal.

Since he will be on a 35+ contract incentives can be used if he were to sign a 1 year deal.

I personally would like him to stay and I think there is a fit (quite frankly the Wings can't replace him internally), but lets face it at almost 1 point a game AND the Wings cap crunch coming: there may be a team that outbids them significantly enough for him to jump ship if he's allowed to get to UFA.

As far as I know the fit is being somewhat close:

1. driving distance for his parents and family from Buffalo to attend home games or help out with his kid--a 3 year old)
2. driving distance from his fiancee/wife relatives in Chicago area (she's got 5 siblings)

Take those two areas plus add a team that fits between or around there.

But I don't have insider access--only speculation and I don't know where negotiations with Raymond and Seider stand. If you bridge them then signing Kane and others should be no problem--but that will kill the cap advantages from 4 until 8 years from now (that you would have gotten with them signing an 8 year extension).

Look at the statements by Mo, CHL and even Perron. Now compare them to what Kane said. They all (except Kane) expressed a desire to stay with the Wings. I think Kane will hit the market. Hope I'm wrong.

from Bob Duff of Detroit Hockey Now,

Patrick Kane isnt 100% ruling out a return to play for the Detroit Red Wings next season.At the same time, when hes speaking about the team, hes already referring to the Red Wings in the past tense.

It was fun to be around the group, it was fun to be a Wing and be in this organization, Kane was saying during Thursdays exit interviews. Ill definitely have some memories to last me a lifetime....

His worth proven to the rest of the league, come July 1, Kane will no longer be a beggar. He can be a chooser. And he can probably count of having his choice of teams from which to choose.

Im sure Ill just kind of explore the situation, talk to my agent, kind of go over everything and kind of see what makes sense, Kane said of free agency. From being in Chicago for so long, going to New York, coming to Detroit, maybe looking for a little more stability as far as term.

more

from Max Bultman of The Athletic,

It was a great year, Kane said. I have nothing but positive things to say about the organization, obviously the opportunity from (Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman), and (head coach Derek Lalonde) to give me the chance to come and play, the situations I was put in, I feel like I got a lot of opportunity to play in the top six and power play, and just play with some great players. It was fun to be around the group. It was fun to be a Wing and in this organization. And Ill definitely have some memories to last me a lifetime.

Kane did say, when discussing his pending free agency, that he would explore the situation here, and see what makes sense. When asked if he expected to hit free agency either way, he answered its hard to say right now. Its hard to really fully understand the situation. But I guess well kind of see, see what happens. Im sure my agent and Steve will have those conversations, and kind of go from there.

Thats not a closed door.

But it also didnt inspire much confidence that Kanes year in Detroit would turn into something more.

What will Kane base his decision on? What factors are most important?

Its kind of hard to say right now, because everythings just so fresh, with the season being done and everything, Kane said. I think coming into this year, my decision was based on playing on a good team, a team where I thought I fit in well, obviously the comfort (of) playing with Alex (DeBrincat) again was something I was looking forward to, and really enjoyed that as well. But as the season goes on, you realize theres a lot of good players here, theres a lot of good players to play with, and like I said before, was put in a great situation to succeed, and play a lot of minutes and play with some good players. So I was real appreciative of that.

And I think it will be similar going forward, too. Its like: How do I fit in with the team? Who would I play with? Things like that. I mean obviously, I think from being in Chicago for so long, and then going to New York, coming to Detroit, maybe looking for, like, a little bit more stability as far as like, term. But I think the right situation matters too.

more ($)

If this guy or is agent handcuffs us till the last minute, screw him.

Jim Carey's character said it best: 
"so you're saying there's a chance..."

It's pretty clear term is the most important, but at what price. I'd love to have him back but the longer the term the less money (per year) he should get.

He's likely to get the most money on the truly open market but I think there are a lot of teams/destinations he isn't interested in.

Yzerman knows the situation he's in. He cannot afford to waste any more cap money as he'll need every bit to improve the team next year and the time has come to issue some big raises to cornerstone pieces. I'm not sure he would commit to anything significant over 3 years.

It won't match the market price but I'm hoping staying in Detroit provides some incentive so that a 3 year $5M per would work.