Abel to Yzerman

Abel to Yzerman

Does Steve Yzerman Deserve Criticism?

04/11/2024 at 11:43am EDT

retrospecd

What's the criticism for? Everyone has an opinion once they leave their job.

He picked players at that time had potential and gave them moderate to great term deals. You don't know how players will pan out when you get them on your team, all you can do is best guess. Look at the teams we're in a race for the last spots and look at our roster.

What's the Lightnings' excuse for playing where they are with all the talent they have? How come the Hurricanes finally started playing up to their talent level after they got Jake?

The D trades were made based on unknown prospects and they needed time to get acclimated. How long did it take Hronek to become what he is now?

Many of the gap filler players won't likely be back. That's expected. You then slowly fill in your prospects with trades.

How's Holland doing?

The Stars came out of nowhere and are now leading the West.

dcaretrospecd

The Lightning are an aging team that has frankly cheated the salary cap for as long as they could. They enjoy tax and weather advantages that can lure players and players to stay for less. Injuries to defense (Sergachev and others since they've used 14 defensemen this season) and subpar performances in net (Vasilevskiy) have sapped the hype. However, the team is getting healthy at exactly the right time of year. You don't want them as a playoff opponent. The issue has always been the brutal division and conference they've been in.

The Hurricane are an opposite type team they are built around a few players (mostly drafted) but have a stable and good defense (with their 7 used all season including one they'd frankly like to trade--but can't find his 8th team). Their coaching has made all the difference. It's why you hear his name being thrown out for this top job and that top job. See conference note from above.


Hronek was known to be a good offensive player but one that would struggle defensively and was going to require a huge commitment--but was always going to be the #2 RHD pair (unless Seider was hurt) in Detroit. Moving from that 2nd pairing to a 1st pairing with a future HOF (Quinn Hughes wonder if he finishes with more points this year than Zadina will in his career?) is what sent his value soaring--which is a huge issue for Vancouver. It's why they already moved on from other talent (Kuzmenko) and acquired rentals (Zadorov and Lindholm) that won't be on their books to re-sign Hronek.

The Stars didn't come from no where as evident by the names: Robertson (2017 2nd round), Pavelski (2003 draft), Hintz (2015 2nd round), Duchene (2009 R1#3), Benn (2007 5th round), Seguin (2010 R1#2), Heiskanen (2017 R1#3), and even Suter (2003 R1#7)--but that is your difference: top of the draft guys or aging stars that can fill roles. Detroit has one: Kane (and don't even say Perron because he's known as a good playoff guy that's never seen that role in Detroit).


Edmonton's problem is much like Toronto's offensive guys eating too much of the cap with one high priced, but frankly mediocre d-man and throw spaghetti at the net and hope it sticks. Holland has done a decent job there--but it's a situation that was frankly built for him (Cup or bust team near the cap where he can only trade draft picks or move salary out and convince free agents to take less to play with top talent). He's done exactly what he did in Detroit (minus the whole Cup thing). Edmonton will have to pay the piper soon enough--but they were always going to when McJesus and Draisaitl aged/left. Holland reshaped the team to have a vet defensive corp that could actually play defense. What their ACL has been is goaltending and Holland has tried vet after vet. I'd love to say he's done it completely wrong--but he hasn't which is why you don't hear the criticism like he had in Detroit--esp those last few years.

VPalmer

Should this question be asked when we are 100% eliminated?

rwbill

Sure why not, its everybodys right.  Theres multiple ways to go about rebuilding a team, and the drafting assets had been looted by Holland.

This chart I posted last year when FSD/BSD/Ken Daniels were trying to praise the improvements in the Wings year to year.  

Below, both the NYR (blue) and the Wings were 100 point teams in 2015, and both slid for 3 years to fall below 80 points. 80, below .500, is pretty bad in todays NHL with the 3 point games. Currently 24 teams are .500 or above, only 8 below .500.

What the chart does show is that while both teams fell over 3 years from 100 points to below 80, the NYR publicized The Letter in 2018 announcing they were going full scale into rebuild.  This eventually resulted in the buyout of Henrik Lundquist and the trade of popular core defender Marc Staal - to Detroit no less .

The NYR hit on some draft luck and in just 2 years were back among playoff teams. Meanwhile Detroit remained below 80 points for 7 seasons. If updated this chart would show NYR again over 110 points while the Wings are edging to the mid to upper 80s.

Oversimplified?  Probably, but one franchise got results quickly, the other still searching for the right roster.

NYR vs DRW 10 year

dcarwbill

There is also the little matter of paying big money for top end free agents in NY: Trouba, Trocheck, and Panarin. The big city living is something few teams can compete against (if that is what the player and family are drawn to). Plus the right trades (Zibanejad and Fox) for guys early in their careers.


However, it wasn't draft luck at the top of the draft with lottery wins that was the propellant. Their rise can be traced to a simple issue: they hit on a franchise goalie --Shesterkin-- in the 4th round.

Paul

OlderThanCheliosPaul

Well, that's not good news at all. It just means that the little money-grubber at League headquarters is going to push for even more games to be on ESPN and their cadre of pay-to-view partners next year.

Shanny_Fan

With no lottery luck and not many valuable assets he didn't have a lot to work with when he got here. He's been doing all he can in accumulating picks and throwing high volumes of darts at the free agent dart board. He's had some pretty solid misses on the dart board and hasn't found a Braden Point in the 3rd round for us (yet), but I doubt many other GMs would have done much better. The Yzerplan is still the way to go.

VPalmerShanny_Fan

NYR had lottery luck, but Laf and Kakko are not the reason they are the best team in the league. I did not follow the Rangers so much, but I know that their best players Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox, Trouba are not their draftees, Kreider went 19th in 2012 and Shesterkin118th overall in 2014. And they went from the bottom to the top in 5-6 years, pretty remarkable

rwbillShanny_Fan

#4 ranked prospect pool.  hopefully most of them hit to be impact NHL players as Edvinsson looks to be. If they do so in their third year Larkin will be 30-32, Raymond and Seider in their mid-late 20s.  The window will be there.

Shanny_Fanrwbill

I totally agree. This teams cup window probably opens when Sandin-Pellika, Kasper and Danielsson are on the roster. 

rwbill

While disappointing if the Wings do not make the playoffs this year because they held their destiny in their own hands on at least two occasions, the bigger disappointments this year are Ottawa and Buffalo.  Both have high end young talent and almost all writers who made predictions placed both of them over Detroit.

That doesnt help any disappointment for a Red Wing fan this year, but maybe they overachieved for a while.

dcarwbill

A solid point. Detroit entered the year with questions on which team (among Ottawa, Buffalo, and Detroit) was ahead on their rebuild. However, expectations were certainly raised after the start Detroit had and getting Kane midseason on top of that.


I certainly don't think they overachieved given those two factors.

MZ2215

Yes, he does. He's my favorite hockey player of all time and has proven he can build a winner in TB, he's one of the bigger reasons i'm the fan I am today and have the optimisim I do. That doesn't mean I agree with every move or that he walks on water.

I'll admit that they're where I had expected/hoped for them to be when we made predictions at the beginning of the season, playing meangful games into March (and even April!). 

Now the hard work really starts. Two huge RFA signings at the top, followed by the task of blending some of that #4 rated prospect pool in without a big regression. Where/when do Danielson and Kasper factor in with Larkin, Copp and Compher down the middle? What about Berggren, Soderblom and Mazur, Johansson?  

I understand the pressure to improve the team incrementally and the strategy to bring in known commodities to do that, but eventually you have to turn the corner. The guys in GR aren't going to get NHL experience in GR.

bezukov

Does Yzerman deserve criticism?   Sure, no one is perfect at their job.   I have my complaints.  Copp and Holl among them.

Here is the big question I see being asked:


Why all the free agent signings?  Why arent more of the prospects in the lineup?

I agree the Wings take the over ripe prospect philosophy too far.  But, speaking of the draft lottery, does anyone really want to think about what this season would have looked like if the Wings had done that? 


In addition, its been seven years without playoffs.   Yes it might well end up being eight.  But the fact is the Wings needed to create some heat and they did.  Steves trying to sell seats and hot dogs too.  Im excited to see what the new guys can do, but this year was never gonna be their time.  Lets be honest.  A stop gap period was needed to stop the hemorrhaging while our new get ready.  Just look at our capfriendly page.  Its obvious space is being made for these guys.  

On the pro side had Larkin not been hurt, were taking about a 40 goal season.  He is signed long term.   Debrincat wont be in a funk forever.   He is signed long term.  Stevie took a big swing and hit a home run with Kane.  

Im disappointed about December and March for this team.  I think people are losing their perspective.   This year was always about playing with house money.   Theyve been exciting to watch for most of the season.  In my opinion, I am sad they might well fall short.  But a lot of what Im seeing contra Steve Yzerman is a failure of fans to manage expectations.   

bigfrog

Criticism goes along with the job, as Yzerman is well aware of. I can't figure the Holl signing, along with some others.🙃

dcabigfrog

Holl was signed because they had AHL guys scheduled to be regulars on the right side after trading Hronek.

Holl was the top RHD they could get in UFA (Gudas got a big offer. Klingberg wasn't coming. Didn't really want Dumba). Which meant not much left--esp those with size from being beat physically down by Ottawa to end the season last year. Ghost was a he's still available maybe we can make 1 year work.

Here was the list

  • Kyle Burroughs, 27, 48 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS, Vancouver Canucks, $750,000
  • Connor Clifton, 28, 78 GP, 5 G, 18 A, 23 PTS, $1 Million (small 5'11)
  • Ian Cole, 34, 78 GP, 3 G, 14 A, 17 PTS, Tampa Bay Lightning, $3 Million (left off-handed)
  • Calvin de Haan, 32, 53 GP, 2 G, 10 A, 12 PTS, Carolina Hurricanes, $850,000 (left off-handed)
  • Matt Dumba, 28, 79 GP, 4 G, 10 A, 14 PTS, Minnesota Wild, $6 Million
  • Shayne Gostisbehere, 30, 75 GP, 13 G, 28 A, 41 PTS, Carolina Hurricanes, $4.5 Million
  • Radko Gudas, 33, 72 GP, 2 G, 15 A, 17 PTS, Florida Panthers, $2.5 Million
  • Travis Hamonic, 32, 75 GP, 6 G, 15 A, 21 PTS, Ottawa Senators, $3 Million
  • Joel Hanley, 32, 26 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 PTS, Dallas Stars, $750,000 (left off-handed)
  • Justin Holl, 31, 80 GP, 2 G, 16 A, 18 PTS, Toronto Maple Leafs, $2 Million
  • Matt Irwin, 35, 61 GP, 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS, Washington Capitals, $750,000 (left off-handed)
  • Erik Johnson, 35, 63 GP, 0 G, 8 A, 8 PTS, Colorado Avalanche, $6 Million
  • John Klingberg, 30, 67 GP, 10 G, 23 A, 33 PTS, Minnesota Wild, $7 Million
  • Dmitry Kulikov, 32, 67 GP, 3 G, 13 A, 16 PTS, Pittsburgh Penguins, $2.25 Million (left off-handed)
  • Scott Mayfield, 30, 82 GP, 6 G, 18 A, 24 PTS, New York Islanders, $1.45 Million
  • Jordan Oesterle, 31, 52 GP 2 G, 9 A, 11 PTS, Detroit Red Wings, $1.35 Million (left off-handed)
  • Luke Schenn, 33, 70 GP, 4 G, 18 A, 22 PTS, Toronto Maple Leafs, $850,000
  • Kevin Shattenkirk 34, 75 GP, 4 G, 23 A, 27 PTS, Anaheim Ducks, $3.9 Million
  • Michael Stone, 33, 48 GP, 6 G, 5 A, 11 PTS, Calgary Flames, $750,000
  • Anton Stralman, 36, GP 8, 0 PTS, Boston Bruins, $1 Million
  • Troy Stecher, 29, 81 GP, 3 G, 11 A, 14 PTS, Calgary Flames, $1.25 Million


And I suppose you could teach a LHD below to play RHD---but doubtful:

  • Scott Harrington, 30, 45 GP, 4 G, 7 A, 11 PTS, Anaheim Ducks, $750,000 (LHD)
  • Nick Holden, 36, 65 GP, 2 G, 14 A, 16 PTS, Ottawa Senators, $1.3 Million (LHD)
  • Jack Johnson, 36, 83 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 8 PTS, Colorado Avalanche, $950,000 (LHD)
    • Nathan Beaulieu, 30, 52 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 PTS, Anaheim Ducks, $850,000 (LHD)
    • Jordie Benn TOR UFA 35.9 D 6 2 201 L 12 1 1 2 $750,000 (not an NHL player anymore)
    • Brian Dumoulin, 31, 82 GP, 1 G, 24 A, 25 PTS, Pittsburgh Penguins, $4.1 Million (LHD)
    • Alexander Edler, 37, 64 GP, 2 G, 9 A, 11 PTS, Los Angeles Kings, $750,000 (LHD)
    • Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 31, 54 GP, 2 G, 20 A, 22 PTS, Vancouver Canucks, $8.25 Million (LHD)
    • Andreas Englund, 27, 47 GP, 0 G, 4 A, 4 PTS Colorado Avalanche, $750,000 (LHD)
    • Carson Soucy, 28, 78 GP, 3 G, 13 A, 16 PTS, Seattle Kraken, $2.75 Million (LHD)
    • Marc Staal, 36, 82 GP, 3 G, 12 A, 15 PTS, Florida Panthers, $750,000 (LHD)
    • Niko Mikkola, 24, 81 GP, 1 G, 5 A, 6 PTS, New York Rangers, $1.9 Million (LHD)
    • Ryan Murray, 29, 13 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 PTS, Edmonton Oilers, $750,000 (LHD)
    • Patrik Nemeth, 31, 75 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 5 PTS, Arizona Coyotes, $2.5 Million (LHD)
    • Dmitry Orlov, 31, 66 GP, 7 G, 29 A, 36 PTS, Boston Bruins, $5.1 Million (LHD)
    • Lawrence Pilut, 27, 17 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PTS, Buffalo Sabres $750,000 (LHD)
    • Ryan Graves, 28, 78 GP, 8 G, 18 A, 26 PTS, New Jersey Devils, $3,166,666 (LHD)
    • Erik Gustafsson, 31, 70 GP, 7 G, 35 A, 42 PTS, Toronto Maple Leafs, $800,000 (LHD)
    • Robert Hagg, 28, 38 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 PTS, Detroit Red Wings, $800,000 (LHD)

    • As you can see it wasn't a banner year for RHD. Holl was signed. Then later Petry was added since Petry > Holl.


      That's how and why Holl was signed.

      OlderThanCheliosdca

      I always appreciate your thoroughness, dca, but this isn't accurate...

      Gudas got a big offer


      He only got $600k/year more than Holl over the same three-year term. Now, maybe he didn't want to come to Detroit instead of going to Annaheim. But if he was open to it, he was exactly what the Wings needed (and still need): the kind of toughness that makes other teams think twice about doing stupid things.

      dcaOlderThanChelios

      Gudas got 4M a season at 33 yrs old with a full NTC his 1st year. A 16 team MNTC the 2nd and a 10 team MNTC the 3rd year. Gudas got the 46th highest contract among RHD.

      It's apples and oranges when full NTC are involved.
      Vets leave money on the table for full NTC's. Living in Southern California vs Michigan during the winter also costs some money. You can say it's only 600k/yr more--but I say no it's 600k/yr to live where winter means upper 60's F and would be more to see gray all winter.

      BTW Dylan Larkin's contract does exactly that with a full in yrs 1-5 and a 10 team in years 6-8. The only other Wing to have a full NTC is Kane.


      Point 2) Also age plays a role (31.5 vs 33). A 33 year old (34 in June) isn't what the Wings need on defense. Especially a 33 year old that can't seem to stay out of the box.


      I think I've posted plenty of Holl being an idiot and throwing the puck memes, but Holl hasn't been the Wings problem on defense. Ghost, Seider, and Petry share that honor.

      Steeb

      Of course he does, I'm not a huge fan of some of the multi-year contracts he signed last summer. But Compher was tearing it up early before he got hurt. Copp was a much-sought-after C when he signed - he's probably the most disappointing player of last summer's signings. I still like Chiaroit, he's played well this year, and I always thought he was a good role model for Mo. Petry and Holl got too much term, but they didn't even know if Edvinsson was going to be in camp after surgery when they signed. Ghost started out looking great, but has fallen off quite a bit, so he won't be back. I still think Perron was a good signing, even tho I won't be sad when he's gone elsewhere. Yes, some of the term is longer than we'd like, but none of them are more than 3 years (unless DeBrincat turns into a bust) and few no-move clauses.


      I still trust (with a bit of blind faith) in the Yzerplan. I think I grok what he was trying to do this year, looking to the future. There will def be some kids coming out of camp next year, and we have most of our picks for the next while, plus more cap room than most teams. And we weren't supposed to be anywhere near the playoffs this year (most picked us 7th in the division), but with BUF and OTT being huge disappointments, we passed them into the playoff conversation. We may even have a worse record next year, if those two teams figure it out. 

      VPalmerSteeb

      Yeah, Ottawa and Buffalo are more talented than we are and Devils will be there next year too and 8 teams that will make the playoffs this year are not going to disappear next year.

      dcaSteeb

      Yzerman didn't sign Petry. He was a trade with term left from Montreal's Marc Bergevin.

      50% of Petry's contract was retained by Montreal so his cap number to the Wings is only $2,343,750.

      dca

      Yzerman deserves criticism--

      • He basically put an inferior product on the ice SEVERAL YEARS AGO to evaluate what he had instead of trading players with upside that were out of favor of the organization while they still had value (Zadina and Veleno come to mind).
      • He's signed bad contracts (from Mantha's all the way to Copp and Holl).
      • He refused to move on from a coach that couldn't make adjustments and proved he wasn't the developer everyone thought--Blash (not Lalonde in case you are wondering).
      • He also signed/traded for guys that clearly didn't work out (Klim Kostin--plus Yamamoto's dead cap space, Nick Leddy, Vrana, Namestnikov, Nedeljkovic, etc).
      • He's traded away talent for lottery picks (Bertuzzi, Hronek) that may never hit.
      • He traded up for a first round goalie (a risky position to draft in the 1st).
      • His UFA haven't always worked beyond term (see Copp) or gotten less effective before they hit the end of their contracts (Perron)--term issues.


      This year: hard to fault what he did. He had extra cap space and chose to spend some of it and try to make a playoff push while not sacrificing the future capital. The team was in that position at the trade deadline so beside Kostin he stayed put.


      His biggest challenge though is yet to come: the salary cap structure starting this summer. Particularly of Seider's, Raymond's, and now Kane's contracts in 2024.


      He also needs to improve the team (whether to go after a player that needs a change of scenery like Johnny Gaudreau and send out a like-wise struggling player like a Copp) or send out the prospects and capital to acquire a #1 centre (Larkin finally proved to me he was up to the task only to get hurt and be reminded he'll be 28 with over 600 NHL games. Some of that will come from the ELC guys that now won't be able to be kept in the minors because the salary cap restrictions will require them to balance the coming contracts.

      ...but blind faith in the Yzerplan is something I have been criticizing for years on here.

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