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Abel to Yzerman

The NHL Draft Lottery Is At 7PM Tonight

from Mike G. Morreale of NHL.com,

The 2021 NHL Draft Lottery will set the order for the first 15 picks of the 2021 NHL Draft when it is held Wednesday (7 p.m. ET; NBCSN, SN, TVA, NHLN).

The first round of the draft will be held July 23, with rounds 2-7 on July 24.

The Buffalo Sabres, who finished last in the regular-season standings, hold the best odds (16.6 percent) of winning the No. 1 pick. The Anaheim Ducks have the second-best odds (12.1 percent). The expansion Seattle Kraken, who begin play next season, have the third-best odds (10.3 percent), equal to the New Jersey Devils, who finished with the third-worst record in the regular season.

The Kraken have the same lottery placement as the Vegas Golden Knights ahead of their first season in 2017-18, and are guaranteed to pick no lower than No. 5 in the first round.

The odds for the 16 teams that failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs are based on inverse order of the regular-season standings. To accommodate the addition of Seattle, the odds of the 15 other teams participating in the lottery were reduced proportionally from the odds used in the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery.

The NHL announced March 23 that two drawings will be held, to determine the top two picks in the draft. Since 2016, the first three selections had been determined by the lottery. The change was made to reduce the likelihood of the team with the worst record dropping in the draft order. That means the Sabres will pick no worse than No. 3 in the 2021 draft.

The Arizona Coyotes will be part of the drawings but forfeited their first-round pick because of violations of the NHL Combine Testing Policy during the 2019-20 season. The Coyotes also had to forfeit their second-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft.

If Arizona wins either lottery drawing, a redraw will be conducted.


Draft Lottery odds are below.

Filed in: | Abel to Yzerman | Permalink


Paul's avatar

Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News,

It’s not a curse. I swear, it isn’t. It’s not a curse that Detroit’s professional sports teams currently are mired in mediocrity, banished from the playoffs, stricken by injuries, haunted by history, dogged by untimely departures and destined to drop in every draft lottery even if they somehow snuck into league headquarters and stamped their logo on each %&$#@* ping-pong ball.

Oh, there are ample curse candidates, going all the way back to the Lions’ Bobby Layne, whose expired curse was immediately granted an extension by Matt Millen. The Wings had Darkness with Harkness in the ‘70s and the Pistons had Draft Darkness with Darko. But all the Ls in the standings actually are about two Ls —  Leaders and Luck….

The Wings enter tonight’s NHL Draft lottery with the sixth-best odds (7.6 %) for the No. 1 pick, which could be Michigan 6-6 defenseman Owen Power. They have a 15.4% chance of landing in the top two….

It’s fun to hold a ticket as long as you don’t count on cashing in, especially around here, where the lottery misery is astounding. The Pistons have never moved up in 13 lottery appearances (the Darko Milicic pick was from Memphis). Since their 25-year playoff run ended, the Wings have dropped in each of the ensuing four lotteries.

Naturally, the NHL changed its format too late, after the Wings posted the worst record last year and plummeted to No. 4, missing out on top prize Alexis Lafreniere. Steve Yzerman got a promising player anyhow in Lucas Raymond, just as he selected a promising player in Moritz Seider at No. 6 the previous season.

And that’s the point. You can’t plan for luck. You can hire competent leaders who aren’t waylaid by bad luck. In Yzerman, the Pistons’ Troy Weaver and the Lions’ Brad Holmes, we’re seeing shrewd aggressiveness.

more (paid)

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 06/02/21 at 09:45 AM ET


Are we taking bets? I say the NHL throws the Wings a bone and we get the 2nd overall pick.

Posted by Jdunc from Flint, MI on 06/02/21 at 11:18 AM ET


But this is probably the worst year to have lottery luck as I don’t think there is much difference between 2 and 8. In either case it will be a long term project.

Posted by VPalmer on 06/02/21 at 11:22 AM ET

Paul's avatar

FYI- I will have an open post for the lottery going up at 6:40pm.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 06/02/21 at 11:24 AM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

I’m resigned to the fact that we’re not going to get a favorable ball bounce here, but for eff’s sake, can the balls just bounce to one of the other top 5 so we don’t move back for a change?

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerHolland2.0's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 06/02/21 at 12:11 PM ET


I’m going to pretty enraged if any of the bottom 5 end up with #1 or #2 pick. Considering the number of high picks Buffalo & NJ have had recently, I’m not going to be thrilled seeing them get it either.

Posted by evileye on 06/02/21 at 12:45 PM ET

Down River Dan's avatar

#1 - Chicago

#2 - Philadelphia

With the 8th pick in the Draft Detroit takes…??  shut eye

Posted by Down River Dan on 06/02/21 at 01:41 PM ET

SYF's avatar

“No lower than eighth, we promise, Wings,” says Billy Daly.  “We promise.”

Posted by SYF from impossible and oddly communally possessive sluts on 06/02/21 at 02:05 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar

If the Rangers win 1st over all would Bettman have to resign? Could he survive the scandal implications?

Going to be pissed if the Wings drop to 8th. That’s just another kick to the nuts that I as a fan will not tolerate.

There should be a rule that any team that drops in the lottery 6 yrs in a row gets a compensatory beginning of the 2 round pick. Or after a certain number of spots. Say 10 spots in a you get a comp pick.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 06/02/21 at 02:16 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

Since their 25-year playoff run ended, the Wings have dropped in each of the ensuing four lotteries.

It’s not just that they dropped, it’s that out of the total of 12 possible slots they could drop in those four years, they dropped 11. That’s worse than “bad luck.”

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 06/02/21 at 02:37 PM ET

Paul's avatar

Rory Boylen of Sportsnet with some good and bad scenarios from the lottery, the Wings are not mentioned.

...we wanted to sift through some of the possible lottery outcomes and separate the “good” results from the “bad.” Some teams really need this win, while others would really be rubbing salt in the wound if they find more luck.

Here are the range of possibilities.

Seattle Kraken: What better way to be introduced to the NHL than to win the first-overall pick in the lottery? The Kraken, like the Golden Knights before them, start with the third-best odds (tied with third-last New Jersey). Vegas wasn’t selected in their first lottery and ended up getting bumped down to the sixth-overall pick after New Jersey, Philadelphia and Dallas jumped over them in the order. The Golden Knights took Cody Glass with the pick.

Seattle will get to pick its team two days before the entry draft, and if they’re able to make those picks and trades knowing they also have the first (or second) pick, it’ll be a great thing to hold in the back pocket. There may not be a generational talent atop this draft, but the higher they pick the better odds they’ll choose a difference-maker who can help define the franchise for years to come. It’d be one advantage that Vegas didn’t have.

Vancouver Canucks: No team has had worse luck at the draft lottery than Vancouver. Actually, it dates all the way back to their inaugural season, when the Canucks lost a spin of the wheel to Buffalo for the first pick in the Amateur Draft. The Sabres ended up taking Gilbert Perreault and the Canucks got Dale Tallon.


Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 06/02/21 at 02:55 PM ET


This is a fun site if you haven’t been to it yet.

I did 12 sims, Wings moved up to the 2nd pick 4 times, dropped to the 7th pick 4 times, and only got the 1st pick once.

Posted by Jdunc from Flint, MI on 06/02/21 at 03:14 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com