debunked?

When the 'peg' becomes hockey's UFA destination and more than 2 UFA to be start signing long-term deals then you can play the see..see...I told you so game. I am glad I proved you so wrong that it shook you to your core and you can remember what I said months ago; whereas, I forgot you existed a second after I hit send on the reply--just like I will on this one.

but until then try again...look back and read the comments again as others pointed out: UFA consider a wide variety of reasons. But having two big minuses in the columns for weather and taxes can certainly sway decisions. That's the point you don't seem to be getting.

Winnipeg isn't like other Northern markets...It's winters are particularly brutal. There are 2 markets in the US (Minneapolis and Buffalo) and 2 in Canada (Edmonton and Calgary) that can compare--but they are not the same. In terms of amenities (and everything that goes with increased population) all of those cities make the 'peg seem like a hick prairie town.

That is why I was so shocked two UFA to be re-signed there. Hellebuyck was said to have demanded a trade. But looking at his age and contract you can see how the Jets overpaid in term at least which might have changed his reasoning. But Scheifele, that's still a mystery to me.

Anyone can point to one example and say see, see, I am right I just debunked your theory. Just because 1 example of a player that isn't swayed by other factors doesn't mean there isn't a larger pattern. You show the larger pattern (others expand on it and clarify) and then someone insists they are still correct by pointing at a couple of outliers--you don't argue: you ignore them.Don't argue with an idiot or a town fool is the lesson. That lesson only

....so while agreeing that taxes does play into this esp after adding escrow: it seems to get downplayed. Just like taking great weather and adding no state income taxes means a huge advantage...but then you get the town fool that says Player X didn't sign with them (ignoring the whole there is a salary cap and that team can't sign everyone) so you ignore them and move on.

okay moving on for real now:

It's not "winter is winter" you learn to deal with it. It's the, "Why do you have to do it there when here, here, and here are better options for the family so that isn't even an issue." And that is one of the reasons why Canada hasn't seen a team win a Cup since '93. That's almost Gretzky leaves for LA days of olde and his dad tries to take the heat off his wife making the family decision by providing a BS excuse territory. I wasn't even a teenager then so I really don't care the exact date.

But more-focused: The 'peg excuses seem to be divided into 2 arguments:

city issues (wife not happy living there, players thinks city's diversity is an issue)

and

team issues (this star left because it was the locker room (I would actually

call it an issue with a coach that favored vets, Wheeler and Mark Scheifele to be exact, despite a young player scoring 44 goals--and that approach cost the team dearly during Hellebuyck's prime years--and still will with couple million in dead cap going forward--but that's for a different comment), but okay I will concede the point that I've always allowed for: there are reasons besides weather and taxes to leave an organization...but that doesn't mean those two aren't factors.

And, I will go out on a limb and say if those same players were in a similar team issue situation in Tampa those team issues would become less significant factors. Setting aside the whole they were Cup contenders for a while and that attracts stars to any market: keeping more money is obvious to anyone. It's a HUGE advantage. Again Canada, last Cup champ was in '93. So plenty of data backing up this theory. Getting out of practice in 60-70 F weather and being able to do things is also significant. Happy wife happy life. Hometown and family in area is significant too as Detroit is luring players.

So again I ask why would a UFA sign long term in Winnipeg? Is anyone predicting them to be anything more than they've been the past few seasons?

It's a situation that I fear Detroit is headed into. I just call it by a different name: the Detroit Pistons (late '00 through late '10's) issue. Bubble team that

won't go anywhere when they make the playoffs. Happy to fill seats and suites. Sign a player here and there past their prime to keep fans happy, but won't move the contention needle.

I will concede that living among polar bears in winter might attract a couple of UFA more than I originally thought.