from Damien Cox at the Toronto Star,

In the past six games heading into Saturday’s road date with the Colorado Avalanche, the Leafs have won three and lost three. No big deal. But part of that has been a regression to the norm for Murray and Samsonov, both of whom were in the NHL’s top six in save percentage after the romp over the Ducks.

That regression hasn’t been due to overwork. In four of those six games, the Leafs have allowed 21 shots or fewer. But they’ve still allowed 19 goals (not counting empty-netters) on 140 total shots for a team save percentage of .864. Murray faced only 59 shots in three outings and gave up seven goals, including four to a bad Arizona team in a 6-3 defeat Thursday night. Samsonov, with more work, has surrendered 12 goals on 81 shots.

This may be a blip. The NHL schedule gets goofy around this time of year with the Christmas break. The first 30 games is also a larger sample size than the last six.

At the same time, it seemed unlikely that Murray and Samsonov had both suddenly found a higher level just by pulling Leafs jerseys over their heads. Their play of late feels a little like Paul Simon’s famous lyric: “Slip slidin’ away/you know the nearer your destination the more you’re slip slidin’ away.”

The destination, in this case, is the post-season. As the Leafs know well from the Freddie Andersen years, it’s once thing to look like one of the NHL’s best goalies in November, and quite another to look that way in April.

As 2023 dawns, the Leafs still don’t have a No. 1 goalie. By contrast, Tampa has used Vasilevsky for 25 games and Brian Elliott for nine. Boston has leaned more on Linus Ullmark than Jeremy Swayman, and both have been rock solid. These are likely the teams the Leafs will have to defeat in the spring.

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