from Joe Smith of The Athletic,
All great rosters, whether they reach dynasty status or not, eventually crumble, though. The late ’70s Montreal Canadiens. The ’80s New York Islanders and Edmonton Oilers. The ’90s Detroit Red Wings. The Chicago Blackhawks, three-time champions from 2010 to 2015, tanked last season. The Pittsburgh Penguins, three-time champions from 2009 to 2017, are in danger of missing the playoffs for the second straight season.
“The salary cap,” as longtime general manager Ken Holland once said, “is undefeated.”
This is where Lightning GM Julien BriseBois is hoping to buck the trend. Tampa Bay already defied the odds in going to four Cup Finals and two more Eastern Conference finals (coming one game away from winning both) over a remarkable eight-year span. That included the stretch of a flat salary cap and two expansion drafts.
However, the reality is that the Lightning are as vulnerable this season as they’ve been in a decade. They’re not nearly as deep. Eight different rookies have made their NHL debuts for them this season. The blue line and the room’s leadership group haven’t been the same since McDonagh was traded in 2022. After ranking fifth in the league during their three Cup Final seasons from 2019-20 to 2021-22 (2.73 goals against per game), they were 14th last season (3.07) and are 23rd in 2023-24 (3.30).
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"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated - Mark Twain
I'd be careful with that prediction regarding the Lightning. They still have too many excellent players still in their prime. Yes, they'll have to make adjustments when Stamkos and Hedman leave but right now they are still playing pretty well.
It's extremely difficult for a team that has had a lot of success to play tough during the regular season especially when you are bound to get the best from opponents. But I suspect as this season progresses, they'll improve and once the playoff start, they wouldn't be an opponent I'd want to face.
I think they are trending down, for sure, but it's only natural - they couldn't possibly be trending any higher than they have the last handful of years.
Their standing this year is deceiving considering they started without Vas. They'll be in the thick of it in the spring and have the potential to take a run.
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