from Travis Yost of TSN,

... It’s an understandable approach, but try thinking like an executive for a moment. Let’s say a player on the trade block had seen his scoring production drop in recent weeks. If you are an interested buyer, you’ll surely weigh the likelihood of that scoring dip being real versus random fluctuation. If it’s the latter, then maybe there’s a possibility of acquiring a valuable asset at a fraction of the cost.

This type of evaluation is done every single day in the hockey world. Organizations are consistently trying to get ahead of the curve, and the vast majority know all too well about the pitfalls of randomness clouding or skewing their perception. But, we’re also all human – susceptible to recency bias and reactionary thinking.

How do we combat that? As you might have guessed, I’m inclined to recommend a numbers-based approach.

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