from Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe,

If this unusual World Cup-affected preseason teaches teams anything, it should be that training camp is an isolated segment in which to determine roster makeup for Opening Night.

Camp was already a difficult evaluation period: 50 players practicing against teammates they don’t want to hurt, then competing against rosters half-full of kids waiting to return to junior. Throw in this year’s variable of most of the league’s best players being away for the World Cup, and you’ve got an even less accurate snapshot of competition.

But teams insist on using preseason games and practices to evaluate players before making AHL and junior assignments. It’s a risky practice. Decision-makers cannot help but make questionable decisions because of recency bias. Try as they might, GMs and coaches place too much emphasis on how players perform in two-week camp windows compared to previous seasons of viewings and data.

It’s been close to impossible to perform proper evaluation because of the absences and the varying levels of fitness. The World Cup guys returned to their club teams peaking from playing against the world’s best. The rank-and-file players are still trying to hit their high points as they prepare for the regular season.

Teams are best equipped applying prior performance to make their roster decisions. They should use camp merely to see if their players’ legs, hands, and eyes are in proper working condition.

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