...Pittsburgh has been outshot 144 to 136 in the series, with high-danger scoring chances — those that originate in the slot or crease — also in Washington’s favor (51 to 42). According to Emmanuel Perry, after adjusting for shot location and volume, the Capitals should be outscoring the Penguins 12 to 11, and be tied in the series after four games. Instead, it’s the Penguins who have the lead on the scoreboard thanks in part to potting goals that have low probabilities of success in the first place.

-Neil Greenberg of Fancy Stats at the Washington Post where you can read more from the analytical side of this series.