from Cathal Kelly of the Globe and Mail,
Eventually, they all get to the same place. They dislike the pressure. They resent the questions. They hate the media and the daily grind. They despise that one loose comment can become a week of headlines.
They start snapping or giving non-answers or become permanently surly. Recall Mike Babcock’s constant sneer near the end.
Their look grows vacant. They aren’t having any fun.
Because the Leafs have tried everything else, how about trying fun?...
You know what can be done by the Toronto Maple Leafs? Anything they want. Stop thinking like some podunk club from the back end of nowhere and start thinking like Manchester United. If everyone agrees you are “a different beast,” act that way.
The Leafs spent seven years acting like things happen to them – good things (they win the draft lottery) and bad things (the refs job them in the playoffs again). Before this all falls apart, try making things happen for a change.
A new centreman isn’t going to change much. A new leader might.
from Matt Larkin of The Daily Faceoff,
It likely wont be long before we know. If the Leafs, freshly eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs, plan to move on from Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander or John Tavares before 2023-24, its likely to happen in the next five to six weeks.
Why? Because various movement restrictions pop up on their contracts starting July 1.
Matthews is eligible to sign an extension July 1. He has one season remaining at a cap hit of $11.64 million. July 1 will trigger a full no-movement clause for the final season of his current deal.
Marner has two seasons remaining on his contract at $10.90 million, and his full no-movement clause also kicks in July 1.
Nylander has one season left at $6.96 million and is eligible to sign an extension July 1, the same day his modified no-trade clause kicks in, consisting of a 10-team no-trade list.
Captain Tavares has a full no-movement clause and two seasons left at an $11-million cap hit.
The Leafs addressed reporters Monday at Ford Performance Centre for their year-end media availability. Many questions lingered in the air, from the futures of their many pending UFAs to the fates of coach Sheldon Keefe and GM Kyle Dubas. But what happens to the Core Four was as prominent a topic as any.
continued
All teams with multiple superstars have that championship window. If they are lucky, it can last 7-8 years--but, usually it's 5-6 years.
Toronto had their hand picked coach in place (Babcock)--one with a championship pedigree. Box 1 checked.
Toronto had the team after years of losing to restock talent. Toronto's window opened up in 2017-18 (when they had Patrick Marleau, James van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Jake Gardiner, Nikita Zaitsev, Morgan Rielly, and Frederik Andersen in net).
That team fizzled in the 1st round so they made a huge addition and added John Tavares that off-season for 7 years and $77M and a full NMC. They knew full well that the first few years would be much better than the last few (sound familiar Wings fans?) Given the cap that move accelerated their clock. They were counting on an ever increasing cap to mask the last few years of the contract and that the team's championship or two in between would mollify the problems on the back end of the deal.
Dubas bet wrong.
A flat salary cap caused changes. Babcock was let go in 2019 after failing twice (and for other reasons). Dubas choose to keep the youngest most skilled of the group from that first window and structure the team
around skill and their cap hits.
The league gave them every opportunity. Hosting a bubble city one year. An all Canadian route to the Stanley
Cup the next. The results were similar--early playoff exits.
The GM went all in trading away draft capital (in 2023: 1st, 2nd, and 3rd; in 2024: 2nd and 3rd; in 2025: 1st and 2nd) to acquire the complimentary pieces and rental players. It didn't make a difference: the team ended up with 2 more playoff wins than the previous versions. 5 of the 16 necessary. They weren't close.
Now they are faced with another longer term issue. Lock-ins of NMC's and NTC's and contract extensions that will become necessary. Which means all the skill can walk away and leave the team with nothing in exchange. All while trying to navigate a tagging issue and a salary cap that is in flux because of COVID escrow.
Given their results this becomes a trickier issue as they have 0 championships during the first 5 years of their championship window. Do they go all-in like Detroit, Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh and a few others have done---and extend that window to 8 years knowing full well that the rebuild after their window will be during a time when their core is just starting their 30's and will lead to mediocrity (never finishing low enough to pull the next generational player nor high enough to be a real Cup contender)? Do they try a soft reset to extend that window by getting better depth and talent to surround their core (by moving at least one of them)? Or is the solution beyond their control as the core hits UFA where they get to decide their futures?
It's a risky bet and one Ken Holland lost. One Stan Bowman lost. One Jim Rutherford lost. Notice all of those GM's are not with the teams that they made the bets for. Maybe Dubas should read those tea leaves and jump to the next job where he can seek a chance with a new core without having to be the guy to trade away his guys.
If Dubas is really the smartest guy in the room: he'll be the one jumping a sinking ship.
Put it this way:
How many Stanley Cups did the lightning win with SY as GM?
The answer is 0....but who gets the credit in hockey circles.
Hit the old nail right on the head. Dubas hands are pretty much tied. He needs to upgrade the goal tending and defense with no money to do it.
Great write up dca.
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