Kukla's Korner Hockey

Kukla's Korner Hockey

Possible First Round Upsets Using Analytics

04/25/2022 at 1:58pm EDT

from Travis Yost of TSN,

In the pantheon of fears in sports, being the target of a first-round upset is near the top of the list. There’s little worse than being sent home early and unexpectedly, and some organizations can live this nightmare for years.

Hockey is a low-scoring, volatile sport susceptible to upsets. It’s part of what makes it so captivating. Yet we know talent does prevail long-term – look no further than what the Tampa Bay Lightning have done in recent years, or a handful of other brief dynasties predating them.

As we head into the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs, a question arises: Are there statistical indicators of a team’s likelihood of being upset against an inferior opponent, and if so, what are those measurements?

To analyze this, I started with the trailing 10 years of first-round playoff performances. Teams that advanced as the stronger seed from Round 1 were differentiated from teams that were upset in the opening round. I focused on the usual key performance indicators for the time being – goals and expected goals (shots adjusted for quality), stop rates and save percentages, with those numbers split across the varying game states.

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Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

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