from Travis Yost of TSN,

So, this is reasonably what we would expect. 80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players. Scott Cullen has done great work looking at specific pick values.

The majority of those will realize something better than a few cups of coffee at the NHL level, of course.

What’s interesting is in the later rounds, the art of hitting on a draft pick seems to be entirely random. Round five, for example, only offers a 1.6% better chance that a player ends up as replacement level or better than a player selected in round seven.

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