Kukla's Korner

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Sometimes I Just Stare

I am not against analytics but sometimes I just get lost.

I am old-school when judging hockey talent and team play and do wonder what Sam Pollock would have to say?

 

Filed in: NHL Teams, NHL Talk, | KK Hockey | Permalink
 

Comments

ilovehomers's avatar

The advanced stats have gone overboard for me. I bought into CORSI, because its a stat you can actually count and isn’t all that subjective. Then you dig into shot charts, save percentage (high, medium, low) all were sensible to me.

But when you try to attribute “wins” to an individual, and start talkong about .4 wins…then theres expected goals for/goals against…I’ve lost interest.

Posted by ilovehomers on 07/19/21 at 04:15 PM ET

SYF's avatar

I do get some of it, but I much prefer the graphics of where a player is (and what he is doing) when a goal is scored, what kind of shot it was (slap, wrist, etc.), and where in the net the goal was scored and all related percentages in those areas of the ice.  Those are fun to me and why I LOVE watching racing on live streams (i.e.: NASCAR, IMSA GTLM, etc., but I stay the farthest away from Formula One - no other racing form has such entitled divas).  How fast they’re going around the track and where on the track they’re the fastest; time spent in the pits relative to position and position after the pit stop; how long those pit stops take; etc.  THAT stuff to me is fun.

What’s shown here is whether or not a player is gonna give you value for what you paid for him.  I’m not a fan of that for the reason that it devalues everything else that the player brings to the team.  It is strictly an individual player analysis according to his salary and barely anything to do with trying to win.

Posted by SYF from impossible and oddly communally possessive sluts on 07/19/21 at 05:58 PM ET

Avatar

I still feel nothing beats the eye test.  Problem is the eyes watching vary in levels of ability to track the play themselves.  But I always trust what I see first.  Certain analytics may make me adjust my position but not usually.  I can see why they’d be used in contract negotiations though.

Posted by ThatGuy on 07/19/21 at 06:21 PM ET

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I honestly wonder what Sam would do too… if anyone hasn’t read Scotty by Dryden they should!

Posted by SevensForTed on 07/19/21 at 06:22 PM ET

SYF's avatar

I still feel nothing beats the eye test.  Problem is the eyes watching vary in levels of ability to track the play themselves.  But I always trust what I see first.  Certain analytics may make me adjust my position but not usually.  I can see why they’d be used in contract negotiations though.

Posted by ThatGuy on 07/19/21 at 06:21 PM ET

+19.  I would much prefer the good old fashioned eyeball test, too.  It’s just a matter of re-training how we watch hockey and then combining it with advanced analytics.  To me, I would really leave the above numbers to deep diving armchair GMs.  It’s fun for them and it creates a new and different kind of fan of the game.

Posted by SYF from impossible and oddly communally possessive sluts on 07/19/21 at 06:28 PM ET

BladesOfSteel's avatar

I would love to effortlessly understand what these charts are telling me. I need somewhere to explain these like I’m 5yrs old.

Posted by BladesOfSteel on 07/19/21 at 07:44 PM ET

damndog revenge   From the bowels of Detroit's avatar

I still feel nothing beats the eye test.  Problem is the eyes watching vary in levels of ability to track the play themselves.  But I always trust what I see first.  Certain analytics may make me adjust my position but not usually. 

Posted by ThatGuy on 07/19/21 at 06:21 PM ET

This 100%. I like Analytics but to a certain degree. I love math and use it everyday but I was brought up in the game and also trust my eyes first. But Analytics probably got started by some hockey fans that were also math geeks that figure the old type of stats were empty. And i think.with Corsi and Fenwick they did okay. I enjoy it.

BUT, now these sites are charging crazy money to figure out all this shit about a player or his team that is over most people’s heads. Including mine at times. But what the Market will bear, right? An example is Evolving Hockey. Decent.site but they have created their own new stat called GAR and to get this key to the Universe of Yoda like information it will cost you.60 bucks/year. F that. I will watch the game and make my own assertions. Everything is money driven and everyone is looking for their own shakedown.

And i extend that to writers also. Detroit Hockey Now wants some like 50 bucks/year for empty articles i can read anywhere with the same information. At least Bultman is a good writer and tries to dig deep. He puts a lot into it but most others they write fluff pieces to appease their editors. Information Age is a joke which is choking off innate and and awareness logic. Trust your instincts and enjoy the game you love.

Posted by damndog revenge From the bowels of Detroit on 07/19/21 at 09:12 PM ET

Primis's avatar

The advanced stats have gone overboard for me. I bought into CORSI, because its a stat you can actually count and isn’t all that subjective. Then you dig into shot charts, save percentage (high, medium, low) all were sensible to me.

But when you try to attribute “wins” to an individual, and start talkong about .4 wins…then theres expected goals for/goals against…I’ve lost interest.

Posted by ilovehomers on 07/19/21 at 04:15 PM ET

This is me.  There are 3 or 4 “fancy stats” that make some sense as a tool to judge a player.  The rest though… man, I don’t think they actually have any value TBH.  They’re designed to feed an increasingly-gambling-centric system, and nothing more.

Posted by Primis on 07/19/21 at 09:52 PM ET

Chet's avatar

the computer boys (and girls) are saying this guy will be an average to below average bottom six F sooner than later, and signing him to a six year deal at that number is completely *#$%@&1ng stupid. they’re probably right.

Posted by Chet from twitter: thegansen on 07/20/21 at 04:05 AM ET

Chet's avatar

they’re saying even if “grit” and “intangibles” and a Cup winning resume matter to some extent, but nobody escapes Father Time and he’s already close to getting caught. i don’t care if a player has 5 Cups—at a certain point, he won’t be able to keep up in the league, and that point is close for him. that’s the basic premise. and he’s only 28, so they’re saying he’s almost for sure out of the league by 34! young mans game these days.

Posted by Chet from twitter: thegansen on 07/20/21 at 04:10 AM ET

damndog revenge   From the bowels of Detroit's avatar

.  They’re designed to feed an increasingly-gambling-centric system, and nothing more.

Posted by Primis on 07/19/21 at 09:52 PM ET

Truth right there

Posted by damndog revenge From the bowels of Detroit on 07/20/21 at 07:02 AM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

I’m not an advanced stats person, because I’m not sure how they’re including the game around the player, like the talent the player plays against and the talent the player plays with (not all 1st 2nd 3rd 4th lines are created equal)  and/or the situational stats.  I know zone’s are considered, but what about when your pressing vs. defending.

Red Wings example, when we are down a goal, a guys like Hirose are going to get a regular shift, and we’re going to be pressing, D joining rushes, trying to fit seam passes, etc.  when we’re up a goal, his ice gets limited and when he’s out, we’re protecting the back end, playing safe, high and hard off the glass vs. trying to squeeze something up and through etc.

Maybe the stats do, maybe they don’t, I haven’t expended the brain power if they do.

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerHolland2.0's pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 07/20/21 at 12:10 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

Posted by MurrayChadwick from YzerHolland2.0’s pixie dust fueled bandwagon on 07/20/21 at 12:10 PM ET

For stats like corsi, you can filter for game situations, i.e. tied or “close” meaning within 2 goals (i think its 2).

Posted by ilovehomers on 07/20/21 at 12:39 PM ET

Avatar

There is also an adjustment for “quality of linemates” as well in a lot of these stats, and quality of competition (aka the line you’re playing againt), but from what I’ve seen (and I haven’t dug too deep), they generally generalize into are you playing against a 1rst line, 2nd line, etc… and not necessarily how good of a line.

And as much as these more newer counting and rate stats are better because they take into accoutn a higher number of events, its still not a lot of data.  Shooting percentages fluctuate quite a bit year to year for players, what goales you play against… I mean, it seemed like every other Detroit game I watched last year, they were playing agianst the other teams backup… is that accounted for?  There are just so many variables in hockey, trying to isolate for one or two I think really makes the data,... while usable, not the be all and end all.

Posted by DieByTheWing on 07/20/21 at 01:59 PM ET

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Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

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