Kukla's Korner

Kukla's Korner Hockey

How Much Is Mike Green Worth?

from Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post,

After factoring in aging and recent performance, a reasonable 2015-16 estimate for Green would be between six and seven point shares skating top-line minutes for another team, a mark that would have placed him in the top 50 among all defenseman this season and in the top 25 for all right-handed blue liners.

The NHL salary cap is set at $71.4 million for the 2015-16 season, so for a team looking to garner 100 standings points during the regular season, the minimum you would expect a championship team to have, that would value Green’s performance between $4.3 and $5 million for the 2015-16 season. If he can replicate the production from this past season, he would provide $6.1 million in value, which was close to his actual cap hit for the season ($6.08 million).

However, his contract demands will likely exceed that, so the Capitals made the right choice letting him go. And now we wait to see which NHL club is willing to overpay.

more

Filed in: NHL Teams, | KK Hockey | Permalink
  Tags: mike+green

Comments

Avatar

If the wings got him for 6mil for 5 years i’d do it.

Posted by Pasha1277 on 06/29/15 at 11:06 AM ET

Avatar

maybe not…? 5 mil? i’m not sure anymore. the wings aren’t getting him so whatever.

Posted by Pasha1277 on 06/29/15 at 11:09 AM ET

Avatar

Definitely more than 5.  Brooks Orpik got 5 a year.  I would suspect with the UFA d class being thin, that he gets more like 6.5 - 7 a year.

Posted by gretzky_to_lemieux on 06/29/15 at 11:17 AM ET

nEgativezEro's avatar

I doubt he ends up coming to the Wings, but he does check off numerous boxes the Wings are looking for. Right-hand shot, great skating and puck-moving ability, just entering his 30s. Injuries are still a concern, as is the thought of his defensive play.

I feel like he’ll need to WANT to play for the Wings to end up here. I imagine Holland will absolutely be in contact with his agent, if he hasn’t been already. Detroit might not pony up the most cash, but if they can guarantee him a top-4 role (if not top-pairing), plus the generally decent position the team is in for the present and future for success, he could choose to come here.

If you look at the chart and numbers, Green was an incredibly effective player last season. I think that would translate very well to the Wings if he were to be signed. Assuming Blash continues using DeKeyser and Quincey as the shut-down duo, Green could still log big minutes and not be forced up against the other teams best players.

If I was the GM, I think I’d be willing to go up to a $6.5 million, 5 year deal. Ideally I’d like to get him in the $5.5-  $6 range, but UFA players, especially the top of the class ones, typically need a little extra to grease the wheels in your direction. He will definitely have some strong offers from other teams. Edmonton could be a really strong suitor, and a very attractive place to go given the state of the team since Chiarelli took over.

Posted by nEgativezEro on 06/29/15 at 11:19 AM ET

nEgativezEro's avatar

Also, in the unlikely event that he ends up in a Wings sweater, does he duke it out with Ericsson for #52, or does he change to a new number?

Posted by nEgativezEro on 06/29/15 at 11:22 AM ET

Primis's avatar

Sub-$5m.  Kyle Quincey money, maybe.  He’s a 3rd pairing d-man that can maybe be a PP specialist.  But lacks in all other areas.  Look at some of the guys the Caps were willing to give ice time over him… it speaks volumes.

Posted by Primis on 06/29/15 at 11:23 AM ET

Avatar

Sub-$5m.  Kyle Quincey money, maybe.  He’s a 3rd pairing d-man that can maybe be a PP specialist.  But lacks in all other areas.  Look at some of the guys the Caps were willing to give ice time over him… it speaks volumes.

If he is sub-$5m then I hope Rutherford grabs him.  That would be a steal.

Posted by gretzky_to_lemieux on 06/29/15 at 11:26 AM ET

Avatar

If he is sub-$5m then I hope Rutherford grabs him.  That would be a steal.

He’s not sub-$5m.  Nobody on any team in the league is worth $5m according to Primis.

Posted by Garth on 06/29/15 at 11:31 AM ET

Avatar

He’s not sub-$5m.  Nobody on any team in the league is worth $5m according to Primis.

Posted by Garth on 06/29/15 at 11:31 AM ET

I love it when people pull arbitrary numbers out of their heads.

Posted by George0211 on 06/29/15 at 11:35 AM ET

Paul's avatar

YouTube video of Green via Sportsnet.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 06/29/15 at 11:58 AM ET

Hootinani's avatar

Ive got like 7 dollars on me right now, but Im gonna want change.

Posted by Hootinani on 06/29/15 at 12:08 PM ET

Primis's avatar

He’s not sub-$5m.  Nobody on any team in the league is worth $5m according to Primis.

Posted by Garth on 06/29/15 at 11:31 AM ET

I love it when people pull arbitrary numbers out of their heads.

Posted by George0211 on 06/29/15 at 11:35 AM ET

You guys should try research sometime.  There are these amazing and fantastical things called “websites” that list player salaries, stats, depth charts, and more!...

Green’s own coach (one that knows defense quite well) deemed Green a 3rd pairing guy to minimize the effect of his errors.  Both Karl Alzner and Brook Orpik (neither of them very good skaters) were preferable options apparently.  Matt Niskanen is top pairing for them, and they got him at $5.75m last year as a UFA.  Therefore, Green should command less.  South of $5m seems about right.  Maybe in $4.5 range is right for him, and only because of his potential PP contributions.  If not for those, he might be worth south of $4m.

Oh, and then there’s the small matter of this chart:

http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=3&scoresit=8&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit;=&playoffs=All&names;=&team=WSH&pos=6&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=61&yaxis=96&caxis=9&saxis=103&mintoi=250&tab=2&usedaterange=0&start0=20142015&end0=20142015&end1=2015-06-29&splitseasons=1

Green is way, way down in the bottom right.  That is not good, not good at all.  Certainly not a $6m guy.

Your moves….

 

Posted by Primis on 06/29/15 at 12:36 PM ET

Avatar

Your moves….

Green is a 45-point, offensive defenseman in a shallow, shallow UFA pool.

If you really think there’s even a chance that he’s going to be had for less than $5M then I genuinely don’t know what to say.  The ONLY way that happens is if he’ takes a small, one-year deal on a top-tier team in order to win a Cup before cashing in big-time next year.

Posted by Garth on 06/29/15 at 12:51 PM ET

Avatar

Oh, and then there’s the small matter of this chart:

http://war-on-ice.com/playertable.html?mansit=3&scoresit=8&homeawaysit=1&shotattsit;=&playoffs=All&names;=&team=WSH&pos=6&start1=2014-10-01&xaxis=61&yaxis=96&caxis=9&saxis=103&mintoi=250&tab=2&usedaterange=0&start0=20142015&end0=20142015&end1=2015-06-29&splitseasons=1

So…..? An offensive defensman has a lost of offensive zone starts, OK. I’m shocked.

Notice the sarcasm

Posted by George0211 on 06/29/15 at 12:54 PM ET

mrfluffy's avatar

Let’s put it this way…

If Holland signs Green for $6 to $6.5 million for 5 years…this time next year you’ll be wanting his head.

...

and there’s no way in hell Holland will offer that sort of contract.

Posted by mrfluffy from the phone, calling Detroit, telling them it's on 06/29/15 at 01:19 PM ET

Avatar

Posted by mrfluffy from A wide spot on I-90 in Montana on 06/29/15 at 01:19 PM ET

I don’t think Holland will be spending this kind of money on Green or anyone for that matter. He has stated a few times already he needs cap space after next season.

Posted by George0211 on 06/29/15 at 01:20 PM ET

Avatar

You guys should try research sometime.  There are these amazing and fantastical things called “websites” that list player salaries, stats, depth charts, and more!...

Oh yes, and according to those magical website, this 3rd pair D-man averages almost as much ice time as Ericsson and Quincey who were our 1st and 2nd pair D.

 

Posted by George0211 on 06/29/15 at 01:22 PM ET

Avatar

Posted by Primis on 06/29/15 at 12:36 PM ET

The chart indicates that Green was zone-start sheltered relative most of his fellow blueliners. But it also indicates that Green was very successful in the role he was given to play, with easily the best possession stats of any Capitals blueliner who played at least half the season.

Orpik played the hardest minutes, but was a trainwreck. Looking at the raw numbers (rather than relative), Alzner and Carlson got about 50-50 zone starts and were also pretty close to 50-50 in terms of possession.

IMO the only guy with a stronger analytics case than Green for the Caps is Niskanen, who was nearly (although not quite) as good on possession numbers but played more, tougher minutes.

I think Green was badly misused in Washington last season. You can say his coach didn’t trust him with more than 3rd pairing minutes, but coaches (even very good ones) are not infallible. How many times did we complain that Babcock played favorites with certain guys while putting others in the doghouse for seemingly very little.

I think Washington made a mistake evaluating Green this season. I think he’s a lot better than a third-line defender with scoring skill. I think he’s at worst their second-best defender (not just based on this year’s stats, but the analytics going back several years). He has always been the team’s best possession driver on the blueline, significantly better than even Carlson in this regard (and Carlson is a good player).

I also think that, after making big money, long-term investments in Orpik and Niskanen (both of whom shoot right, as does John Carlson), demoting Green to the third line became more or less a political necessity. They made their bed with those two, even though Orpik is awful. They were not going to put Orpik on the third pairing after signing him to 5 years and $27.5 million. There was no doubt a lot of motivation in Washington to prioritize their long-term commitments and try to make them successful over a guy they knew would be gone after the season, even if it made them worse on the ice.

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 06/29/15 at 02:30 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar

Let’s put it this way…

If Holland signs Green for $6 to $6.5 million for 5 years…this time next year you’ll be wanting his head.

...

and there’s no way in hell Holland will offer that sort of contract.

I couldn’t have stated it any better. Green will not be a Red Wing unless it’s for a reasonable contract which is highly unlikely.  confused

Posted by bigfrog on 06/29/15 at 11:12 PM ET

Add a Comment

Please limit embedded image or media size to 575 pixels wide.

Add your own avatar by joining Kukla's Korner, or logging in and uploading one in your member control panel.

Captchas bug you? Join KK or log in and you won't have to bother.

Smileys

Notify me of follow-up comments?

Feed

Most Recent Blog Posts

About Kukla's Korner Hockey

Paul Kukla founded Kukla’s Korner in 2005 and the site has since become the must-read site on the ‘net for all the latest happenings around the NHL.

From breaking news to in-depth stories around the league, KK Hockey is updated with fresh stories all day long and will bring you the latest news as quickly as possible.

Email Paul anytime at pk@kuklaskorner.com