Abel to Yzerman

Abel to Yzerman

GDT - Game 27: Red Wings (12-9-5) at Flames (9-11-4) 9:30

03/13/2013 at 8:52am EDT

GDT Plus today, bitches. There is Trouble in Paradise, much more than the diggers are letting on. It is "Huge," Babcock said. "It's not even the trip, it's tomorrow. We got a game tomorrow. We've got one out of a possible four points here lately. We need to get back on the winning side of things." Yea Mike, and you better friggin find some urgency.

This three game swing, tonight at basement dwellar CGY, Friday at EDM, and Saturday at VAN, could very well determine if the playoff streak continues. Let me explain.

FeeL Like a Number?

I know, we are only two games past the half-way point and I'm sounding general quarters. WTF you say, DET are in 7th place in the West (but have played 1 more game than others).

Let me fill in some blanks. DET have played 26 games (12-9-5 - .558%); 9-4-3 at home (.656%), and 3-5-2 (.400%) on the road. DET have 14 road games left but only 8 at home. That should scare the dickens out of everyone, but I've gone a little further.

Here I hazard an assumption, and it is slightly imperfect. I looked at the last three seasons to see the points registered by the #8 team. The sample is skewed because in the previous three years, competition was not limited to conference foes; still it is a good size sample.

2011-12 = 95

2010-11 = 97

2009-10 = 95

Let's go with 95 points being the minimum. Adjusted to a 48 game schedule, that means the target number is 55.603 pts. (95/164 = .5792% * 96).

Right now the Wings sit at 29 points, so they need 26 more to get to 55 (a friendly nod). Not too difficult with 22 games left, right?

Wrong. DET needs 26/44 = .5909 (almost 60%). In a home heavy schedule to date, DET are earning just .558% of points (and only .400% on the road).

DOOMED

The Wings need to get hot, and in a friggin hurry. Nothing in DET's numbers suggest a good result; but that is why they play the game.

SEASON RECORD:

DET: 26 GP, 12-9-5, 29 pts, (7 in Conf, 3 in Central), 68 GF, 66 GA, Last 10 5-3-2, OT 1

CGY: 24 GP, 9-11-4, 22 pts, (15 in Conf, 5 in Northwest), 64 GF, 82 GA, Last 10 4-5-1, LOST 3

DET ROAD: 3-5-2 (19)

CGY HOME: 6-5-2 (22)

TEAM STATISTICS:

DET: 0.558 point% (17), 2.54 G/G (19), 2.46 GA/G (9), 1.25 5-5 F/A (6), 14.4 PP% (25), 79.0 PK% (20), 29.5 S/G (13), 28.3 SA/G (13), 51.9 FO% (6)

CGY: 0.458 point% (26), 2.67 G/G (15), 3.29 GA/G (28), 0.72 5-5 F/A (28), 19.3 PP% (11), 77.6 PK% (27), 28.2 S/G (19), 28.2 SA/G (12), 47.3 FO% (25)

Goal Differential/Game:

DET = +0.08

CGY = -0.62

PLAYER STATS:

DET Skaters:

POS Player GP G A PTS +/- ATOI

L Henrik Zetterberg 26 6 21 27 2 20:46
C Pavel Datsyuk 25 8 17 25 9 20:13
C Damien Brunner 26 10 9 19 -2 17:08
D Niklas Kronwall 26 3 15 18 -5 24:05
C Johan Franzen 19 5 6 11 4 18:33
C Valtteri Filppula 19 4 6 10 3 17:40
D Jonathan Ericsson 23 2 8 10 2 21:25
D Jakub Kindl 19 3 4 7 11 17:34
C Tomas Tatar 18 4 3 7 2 11:22
R Daniel Cleary 26 5 2 7 -4 17:07
R Patrick Eaves 18 1 5 6 5 10:16
C Joakim Andersson 16 3 3 6 5 10:21
L Drew Miller 26 2 3 5 0 13:32
R Jordin Tootoo 26 2 2 4 2 9:25
D Brian Lashoff 21 1 3 4 -3 18:15
C Cory Emmerton 26 2 1 3 1 10:46
R Todd Bertuzzi 7 2 1 3 3 15:31
D Ian White 15 1 1 2 -1 20:29
L Justin Abdelkader 26 1 1 2 -3 14:12
R Mikael Samuelsson 3 0 1 1 -2 14:07
D Kyle Quincey 24 1 0 1 10 19:03
D Brendan Smith 15 0 1 1 5 18:16
D Kent Huskins 11 0 0 0 -3 15:20
D Carlo Colaiacovo 2 0 0 0 0 17:26
C Darren Helm 1 0 0 0 0 12:27
L Jan Mursak 2 0 0 0 0 5:38
C Gustav Nyquist 2 0 0 0 -1 12:22

DET Goalies:

Player GPI W L OT GAA PCT

Petr Mrazek 2, 1-1-0, 2.02, 0.922
Jimmy Howard 22, 10-7-4, 2.46, 0.914
Jonas Gustavsson 4, 1-1-1, 2.18, 0.908

CGY Skaters:
POS Player GP G A PTS +/- ATOI

R Jarome Iginla 24 7 12 19 -3 19:35
L Alex Tanguay 24 7 12 19 -7 20:15
L Mike Cammalleri 21 9 8 17 -8 17:23
C Jiri Hudler 21 4 12 16 -3 17:49
R Lee Stempniak 24 6 10 16 3 18:00
L Curtis Glencross 22 8 5 13 -6 19:06
D Dennis Wideman 24 3 9 12 -5 25:11
C Matt Stajan 24 3 9 12 6 17:29
D Jay Bouwmeester 24 4 8 12 -4 24:47
C Roman Cervenka 20 3 5 8 -7 13:56
D TJ Brodie 23 1 5 6 -2 17:54
C Mikael Backlund 10 4 1 5 -1 13:55
D Chris Butler 21 0 5 5 -5 16:25
D Mark Giordano 24 1 4 5 -6 23:03
L Blake Comeau 23 1 2 3 -8 11:27
L Roman Horak 6 1 1 2 -1 12:28
L Steve Begin 18 1 1 2 -1 7:29
C Blair Jones 11 0 1 1 -2 8:50
D Derek Smith 17 0 1 1 -2 12:47
L Sven Baertschi 10 0 1 1 -2 11:00
D Anton Babchuk 2 0 1 1 -2 11:57
R Tim Jackman 20 1 0 1 -4 6:17
C Paul Byron 1 0 0 0 -1 2:51
R Akim Aliu 2 0 0 0 0 4:29
C Ben Street 2 0 0 0 -2 12:58
D Cory Sarich 9 0 0 0 -4 13:20
R Brian McGrattan 7 0 0 0 -2 6:10

CGY Goalies:

Player GPI W L OT GAA PCT

Daniel Taylor 2, 1-1-0, 3.00, 0.912
Joey MacDonald 9, 3-4-1, 2.85, 0.900
Leland Irving 6, 2-1-1, 3.33, 0.883
Miikka Kiprusoff 10, 3-5-2, 3.43, 0.867

THE HOCKEY NEWS - TOTT:

DET - HOT:

Jakub Kindl - 2 pts in last 3 GP
Jimmy Howard - 2-0-2, 0.96, .965 in last 4 GPI
Jonas Gustavsson - 1-1-0, 1.92, .920 in last 2 GPI

DET - NOT HOT:

Kyle Quincey - 0 pts in last 6 GP
Dan Cleary - 0 pts in last 7 GP

CGY - HOT:

Alex Tanguay - 2 pts in last 2 GP

CGY - NOT HOT:

Michael Cammalleri - 1 pts in last 4 GP
Dennis Wideman - 2 pts in last 11 GP
Blake Comeau - 0 pts in last 3 GP
Jiri Hudler - 0 pts in last 3 GP
Lee Stempniak - 0 pts in last 3 GP
Miikka Kiprusoff - 0-2-0, 5.56, .783 in last 2 GPI

Injury Report:

DET:

Bertuzzi, Todd Back injury injured reserve
Colaiacovo, Carlo Shoulder injury injured reserve
Filppula, Valtteri Left shoulder injury day-to-day
Helm, Darren Back injury injured reserve
Samuelsson, Mikael Broken finger injured reserve

CGY:

Byron, Paul Fractured left hand injured reserve
Glencross, Curtis Upper body injury day-to-day

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bill Roose at the Wings website has the Wings Tuesday practice lines:

Babcock shuffled the forward lines a bit:

Nyquist - Datsyuk - Franzen

Filppula - Zetterberg - Brunner

Cleary - Abdelkader - Andersson

Miller - Emmerton - Tootoo

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