Abel to Yzerman

Abel to Yzerman

A2Y- The Last Ten Games

03/27/2023 at 6:44am EDT

from Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press,

Continuing to lose over the final 10 games will help the Detroit Red Wings in the 2023 NHL draft lottery, from an organizational standpoint.

But as players keep pointing out: It’s way more fun to win.

Given the strength of their schedule, fun will be challenging to have. This week offers four tests: Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Thursday against the Carolina Hurricanes, Friday at the Winnipeg Jets, and Sunday at the Toronto Maple Leafs....

It’s on the Wings to find meaning in these remaining games. They’ve scored only nine goals over their past six games, and were unable to convert on seven power plays in the 3-0 loss to the Flyers.

Since Feb. 23, when winning seven of eight games gave the Wings a brief stay inside the playoff picture, the Wings have gone 3-11-1. Dylan Larkin has a team-leading 11 points in those 15 games, but multiple players being counted on to score have little to show: Lucas Raymond (one goal, six points, minus-9 rating); David Perron (two goals, seven points, minus-8 rating); and Andrew Copp (two goals, seven points, minus-6 rating).

more ($)

Paul

from Max Bultman of The Athletic,

A team creating more than it gives up, and largely taking care of business on special teams (a couple short-handed goals notwithstanding), is tough to square with a 3-8 record. Over that span, each of those three numbers ranks in the top half of the league. Instead, the result has been a despairing plummet in the standings.

How can that be?

As youve likely guessed, the foundation of the answer is that the Red Wings actual five-on-five goals share is much, much worse than the expected goals data would suggest. At 26.23 percent, thats the worst number in the league since the trade deadline, and it can be broken down into two components: a 4.13 shooting percentage at five-on-five (a league worst in that span), and an .881 save percentage that ranks bottom-five.

Yes, that likely points to some positive regression due to the Red Wings. And yes, its a small sample. But the most important takeaway here is not that the Red Wings have simply been unlucky over the month of March.

While a season-long run with five-on-five and special teams numbers like those would likely lead to better outcomes, the fact the results have been so bad in spite of them actually says something far more revealing about what the team lacks. And, by extension, what it must seek this offseason.

It made me think of something Lalonde said in the immediate aftermath of the Red Wings 5-1 loss to the Avalanche a week ago: The analytic minions are going to tell us we outchanced them. All the underlying numbers are going to say we played a pretty good game. But we didnt execute, and their difference-makers were difference-makers.

more ($)

Paul

from Mike G. Morreale of NHL.com,

This week, the top seven rookies in the Atlantic Division (in alphabetical order):

Jonatan Berggren, F, Detroit Red Wings: The 22-year-old left wing is tied for third among Atlantic Division rookies in goals (12) and is sixth in points (23) in 57 games and averages 13:29 of ice time in a bottom-six role. The second-round pick (No. 33) in the 2018 NHL Draft ranks second in the division with eight power-play points (four goals). He's a left-handed shot who can play either wing on any line and had 64 points (21 goals, 43 assists) in 70 games for Grand Rapids of the American Hockey League in 2021-22, his first season in North America.

more names, no more Wings...

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About Abel to Yzerman

Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977. No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y. Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation. There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature. Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that.

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