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Abel to Yzerman

Wings Stockpiling Draft Picks

from Rory Boylen of Sportsnet,

One final tidbit: as the Detroit Red Wings continue to retool, draft picks have become more important to them. This is the second year in a row the Wings could pick six times in the first three rounds, but it’s almost unprecedented for Detroit to hold multiple first-round picks. Remember, in the 16 NHL drafts from 1997 to 2012, Detroit didn’t pick in the first round at all 10 times.

This year, they acquired Vegas’s first-rounder in the Tomas Tatar deal. If Detroit keeps it (which you have to believe they will), the Wings will pick twice in the opening round of the draft for the first time since the 1978 amateur draft. At that point in the league’s history, the draft age was 20 instead of 18, it was called the amateur draft as opposed to the entry draft, and ’78 marked the last selection process before the NHL-WHA merger.

more on NHL teams and their draft picks after the trade deadline....

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Comments

TreKronor's avatar

And the better Philly does in the playoffs, with petr playing, the better draft pick we get.

So, go Petr?!

Posted by TreKronor on 02/27/18 at 01:48 PM ET

Paul's avatar

Ansar Khan of Mlive,

The Detroit Red Wings not only will miss Tomas Tatar’s scoring ability, they will miss his upbeat personality.

“Definitely going to miss Tats’ laughter and just the way he is, a guy that everyone enjoyed being around,” Niklas Kronwall said.

“First and foremost, he’s a good friend of ours. He’s been here for a long time. You get that kind of bond between guys. Definitely, his presence, we’ll miss it for sure.”

Jeff Blashill called Tatar “one of my favorite guys I’ve coached.”

continued

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/27/18 at 01:50 PM ET

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Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/27/18 at 12:50 PM ET

Yeah, that’s the shitty part of the business.
All the best to Tats.

But 2 1st rounders, gives you so many options, move up, get a grade A D prospect.
Draft should be fun

Posted by George0211 on 02/27/18 at 01:55 PM ET

Paul's avatar

Do I have this straight?

Wings fans root for Philly to win and for Vegas to lose?

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/27/18 at 01:56 PM ET

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Do I have this straight?

Wings fans root for Philly to win and for Vegas to lose?

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/27/18 at 12:56 PM ET

I can’t bring myself to cheer for Philly under any circumstances.

Posted by George0211 on 02/27/18 at 01:58 PM ET

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And is it a coincidence that he was traded just before his NTC kicked in…..

Posted by NEWing on 02/27/18 at 02:11 PM ET

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Wings fans root for Philly to win and for Vegas to lose?

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 02/27/18 at 12:56 PM ET

Rooting for Mrazek. Under no situation will I root for Philly.
/lifelong/ checking in, so I can’t bring myself to root for Vegas to lose. I’ve been on board with them from Day 1.

Posted by Manthanasiou87 on 02/27/18 at 02:20 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

maybe it’s my “newer” fanship (2002), but I don;t harbor hard feelings for Philly. In fact, their run in the 2010 playoffs was mesmerizing.

Shootout victory the last day of the season to squeak in (6 or 7 seed I believe). Down 3-0 to the Bruins, then 3-0 in game 7 to make it to the conference finals. then….Chicago. screw ‘em!

Posted by ilovehomers on 02/27/18 at 02:26 PM ET

Primis's avatar

If Detroit keeps it (which you have to believe they will), the Wings will pick twice in the opening round of the draft for the first time since the 1978 amateur draft.

I was just wondering this a bit ago.  I knew it wasn’t in the 90’s, thought maybe the early 80’s before I was really too young to remember.  1978, yeesh.

 

Posted by Primis on 02/27/18 at 02:48 PM ET

Primis's avatar

maybe it’s my “newer” fanship (2002), but I don;t harbor hard feelings for Philly. In fact, their run in the 2010 playoffs was mesmerizing.

Posted by ilovehomers on 02/27/18 at 01:26 PM ET

Well I know people who remember say the 70’s hate them.  But if you remember the 1990’s you probably hate them too.  The “Legion of Doom” was such a complete and utter joke and it was magnificent that DET swept them in the Finals and how they did it.  Post-Lindros, there hasn’t been much in Philly to hate because they’ve been fairly bad most of the time.

Posted by Primis on 02/27/18 at 02:50 PM ET

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Posted by ilovehomers on 02/27/18 at 01:26 PM ET

At least with me it has nothing to do with the Flyers per se, they are my least hated of the Philadelphia teams, but more to do with the fact that Philadelphia itself is awful and their fans are garbage.

Posted by Manthanasiou87 on 02/27/18 at 02:53 PM ET

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“Definitely going to miss Tats’ laughter and just the way he is, a guy that everyone enjoyed being around,” Niklas Kronwall said.

And without being in that lockeroom, you can definitely feel it just looking at Tatar on the ice, just a fun player to watch and one of my favourite players in the last 5 years or so. Very difficult to separate emotions from the reality when you see your favourite players leave your favourite team in their prime. I will be missing his goal celebrations too.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 03:03 PM ET

d ca's avatar

stockpiling picks doesn’t mean a lot if you trade down and don’t acquire top of the draft talent. the Larkin’s of the world don’t slip down to teams picking in the double digits every year.

Examples of Wings 1st rounders busts
Thomas McCollum,
Jakub Kindl,
Riley Sheahan

1st rounders not busts but not on the team
Brendan Smith,
Jiri Fischer

or trade down to the 2nd round to get names like Landon Ferraro, Tomas Jurco, Xavier Ouellet, and Ryan Sproul.

So for all of Holland’s 1st and 2nd rounds (from ‘14 and earlier) drafting we have: Larkin, Mantha, Howard, Abdelkader, Kronwall, Ouellet, and Frk with Hudler and Tatar as honorable mentions to show for it. And I’m supposed to celebrate a team that is trying to compete for an 8th seed rather than tank and get a generational talent player in the draft (or move up a few spots and get a higher ceiling player)? And people wonder why LCA is half-full?

Posted by d ca on 02/27/18 at 03:24 PM ET

d ca's avatar

^^^and yes having honorable next to Tatar and Hudler made me think after I posted it. Ask their neighbors in Tatar’s and ex’s in Hudler’s case if you don’t know what I’m talking about.

Posted by d ca on 02/27/18 at 03:27 PM ET

TreKronor's avatar

This is a pretty interesting chart, as it has all the details of the conditional picks.  https://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Future/RedWings.htm

Most curious to me is, we get a 2nd for Petr if Philly makes the Eastern Conf. Finals and Petr plays at least 6 games. 

If that happens, unlikely as it may be, that would give us 2 1st round picks and 3 2nd round picks.

Posted by TreKronor on 02/27/18 at 03:30 PM ET

duhduhduh's avatar

The “Legion of Doom” was such a complete and utter joke

Isn’t that what our current head of scouting is determined to rebuild?  Remember last draft going “Big”, like it was 1995 again. 

What we desperately need is general hockey IQ and at least one top 6 center prospect in this draft.

Posted by duhduhduh on 02/27/18 at 03:34 PM ET

Hootinani's avatar

With Tyler Wright at the helm, there is a high likelihood that all of those picks will be wasted.

Posted by Hootinani from the parade following Babs out of town on 02/27/18 at 03:58 PM ET

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This is a pretty interesting chart, as it has all the details of the conditional picks.  https://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Future/RedWings.htm

Most curious to me is, we get a 2nd for Petr if Philly makes the Eastern Conf. Finals and Petr plays at least 6 games. 

If that happens, unlikely as it may be, that would give us 2 1st round picks and 3 2nd round picks.

Posted by TreKronor on 02/27/18 at 02:30 PM ET

Good link.

How about this, is there another team in the league that has this many picks this upcoming draft?

Posted by neffernin on 02/27/18 at 04:01 PM ET

TreKronor's avatar

How about this, is there another team in the league that has this many picks this upcoming draft?

Nice little chart on this page: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/teams-hold-draft-picks-2018-nhl-trade-deadline/

Wings have the most picks at 11, followed by MTL and NYR at 10.

Calgary is tied for fewest at 5, which could be interesting.  They have a pretty young team, so it could be a few years before they are a true contender.  Being low on picks now isn’t going to help them down the road.

Posted by TreKronor on 02/27/18 at 04:27 PM ET

d ca's avatar

^^^
Rangers have 3x 1st round picks (7, 26, 31), 2x 2nd round (38, 47) and 2x 3rd round (69,88).

Also the blackhawks have 2 picks in the 1st round (8, 29) and both are immediately before the Wings pick (#9, 30).

The Avs have 2x 1st rounders (#‘s 3 and 14 right now) and 2x 2nd rounders.

Montreal has 1 in the 1st (#5) and 4x 2nd round (36, 39, 54, 59).

NYI have 2x 1st rounders (12, 17) and 2x 2nd rounders (43, 48).

The better site to go on is https://www.capfriendly.com/draft/2018 it too has the conditions of the draft picks.

Posted by d ca on 02/27/18 at 04:32 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

Wings fans root for Philly to win and for Vegas to lose?

I’m rooting for Mrazek to win 5 and get the Flyers into the playoffs (4th becomes a 3rd), and wouldn’t mind if Philly gets to CF with Razer in net, esp if they roll over Pit on the way (3rd becomes a 2nd). My hatred for the Flyers from the ‘90s has dissipated over time, mostly when Lindros left.

I don’t see any conditionals on the picks we got for Tatar, so I don’t see any reason in that regard to root against Vegas…

Posted by Steeb on 02/27/18 at 04:32 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

Posted by d ca on 02/27/18 at 03:32 PM ET

The picking order there isn’t set in stone, I believe it’s based on the standings as of today. Plus, there’s the draft lottery for round 1, of course. You probably know that, I just wanted to clear up.

Posted by Steeb on 02/27/18 at 04:36 PM ET

d ca's avatar

yup steve totally understand that.

my point was the Wings don’t have the best picks in the draft (as of today). Rather have higher #1’s and 2’s than the most overall and wanted to point that out to people raving about have the most.

Posted by d ca on 02/27/18 at 04:41 PM ET

d ca's avatar

If you want to read a good article about draft position vs career outlook

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131

or the older article

https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144


If you want to look at 1 chart that says it all

which is why tanking and picking higher is important (note there are outliers—but they are few and far between).

Posted by d ca on 02/27/18 at 04:48 PM ET

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so I don’t see any reason in that regard to root against Vegas…

The lower they finish, the better/higher will be our first round pick from them

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 04:50 PM ET

TreKronor's avatar

which is why tanking and picking higher is important

It would be great to also have a chart to show the correlation between tanking and a high draft pick, because tanking doesn’t necessarily equate to picking higher, such as was the case in the 2017 draft.

Posted by TreKronor on 02/27/18 at 04:51 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

The lower they finish, the better/higher will be our first round pick from them

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 03:50 PM ET

Ah, ok. Makes sense. They’re still in the playoffs, tho so it’ll be somewhere around 25th if they don’t make the finals…. Also gotta wonder if taking thier 1st NEXT year might have been a better move (we have their 2nd), on the off chance that this season was a fluke and they’re as bad next year as everyone expected them to be this year.

Posted by Steeb on 02/27/18 at 04:58 PM ET

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Also gotta wonder if taking thier 1st NEXT year might have been a better move (we have their 2nd), on the off chance that this season was a fluke and they’re as bad next year as everyone expected them to be this year.

Just a FYI, the trade was for the Islanders second round next year. Which could still work out quite well, better than if Vegas regresses at all next year.

Posted by Manthanasiou87 on 02/27/18 at 05:11 PM ET

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It would be great to also have a chart to show the correlation between tanking and a high draft pick, because tanking doesn’t necessarily equate to picking higher, such as was the case in the 2017 draft.

Finishing badly absolutely does correlate to picking higher, it just isn’t perfectly correlated

Posted by EthrDemon on 02/27/18 at 05:24 PM ET

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Also gotta wonder if taking thier 1st NEXT year might have been a better move

Good point. Vegas could easily be a fluke and it could have been a lottery pick next year. But possibly that’s the reason Vegas would not trade it.

They’re still in the playoffs, tho so it’ll be somewhere around 25th if they don’t make the finals…

I do not think playoffs matter in draft order, just the regular season standings. Somebody correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 05:35 PM ET

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Also gotta wonder if taking thier 1st NEXT year might have been a better move

Good point. Vegas could easily be a fluke and it could have been a lottery pick next year. But possibly that’s the reason Vegas would not trade it.

They’re still in the playoffs, tho so it’ll be somewhere around 25th if they don’t make the finals…

I do not think playoffs matter in draft order, just the regular season standings. Somebody correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 05:35 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

I do not think playoffs matter in draft order, just the regular season standings. Somebody correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 04:35 PM ET

Cup champs 31st, runner-up 30, conf finalists 29 & 28. Then it goes by reg season division winners by points, and then the rest of the standings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_Entry_Draft#Selection_order_and_draft_lottery

Posted by Steeb on 02/27/18 at 05:52 PM ET

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I do not think playoffs matter in draft order, just the regular season standings. Somebody correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by VPalmer on 02/27/18 at 04:35 PM ET

They matter a little:
Picks 1-15: Non-playoff teams, lottery
16-27: Playoff teams by standings, low to high (see below)
[24-27]: Division champs, unless they were in final 4*
28/29: Conference final losers
30: Cup runner-up
31: Cup winner

*This is the only way it makes sense that Montreal picked after Minnesota & Columbus last year

So the VGK 1st is likely to be in the 25-27 range.

 

Posted by EthrDemon on 02/27/18 at 05:58 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

Posted by Steve in San Francisco on 02/27/18 at 04:52 PM ET

Woops, yea, 1-15 non-playoff teams lottery, natch.

Posted by Steeb on 02/27/18 at 06:01 PM ET

hockeyfreak13's avatar

I do not think playoffs matter in draft order, just the regular season standings. Somebody correct me if I am wrong.

They do. Teams that participate in the conference finals pick last. Then division winners. Then everyone else. Since VGK are going to win their division, I think the best we can reasonably hope for is 26 or 27.

Posted by hockeyfreak13 from Grand Rapids on 02/27/18 at 06:06 PM ET

duhduhduh's avatar

So, just speculating: what if the Wings win more than they should and don’t look as if they will pick in the top 5. They have two first rounders. Would you send them both with AA to Ottawa for Karlsson?

Posted by duhduhduh on 02/27/18 at 08:52 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

Posted by MoreShoot on 02/27/18 at 07:52 PM ET

Definitely not. This team isn’t one Erik Karlsson away from being a contender, as great as he is. The Sens got stellar goaltending and timely scoring last year to get as far as they did. I don’t see that coming from this team. Hopefully, KH doesn’t see it either…

As far as trading the two 1sts to move up, obvs we wait til after the lottery. But I’m not sure how much higher we’d get for (as it stands right this minute) #9 and #30 overall, unless there’s somebody we really want and can find a taker. This is reportedly a deep draft, tho, so two 1sts may be worth more than anyone we could get a little higher.

Posted by Steeb on 02/27/18 at 09:16 PM ET

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They have two first rounders. Would you send them both with AA to Ottawa for Karlsson?

Posted by MoreShoot on 02/27/18 at 07:52 PM ET

Not way am I paying anywhere near the market price for 1 year of Erik Karlsson

Posted by EthrDemon on 02/27/18 at 09:23 PM ET

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[quoteThey have two first rounders. Would you send them both with AA to Ottawa for Karlsson?

Posted by MoreShoot on 02/27/18 at 07:52 PM ET

Not way am I paying anywhere near the market price for 1 year of Erik Karlsson]

I would tend to agree with you except that the Wings could move Karlsson at the trade deadline if they couldn’t reach an agreement on an extension and likely recoup what they gave up.

I honestly don’t believe the Wings are in the equation with Ottawa because they need to give up more NHL caliber talent, probably Larkin, to make it happen.

However, I’m not really of the camp that you don’t try to add a talent like Karlsson just because he won’t elevate the Wings to Cup contender. Why? Because I believe to be a Cup contender you have to have elite or at least near elite top pair defensemen. These are incredibly hard to come by. At least by having Karlsson, you’d have that piece in place and if re-signed have at least 4-5 years to gather/develop the other pieces.

Posted by evileye on 02/28/18 at 11:33 AM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com