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Abel to Yzerman

Open Post- Day 2 Of The 2021 NHL Draft

Watch on the NHLN, SN and SN NOW beginning at 11:00am ET.

Detroit picks today- Round 2 #38, Round 3 #70, Round 4 #102 & #128, Round 5 #134 and Round 6 #166.

An active discussion in the open post from Day 1, let the conversation continue.

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Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar

I am hoping for Liam Gilmartin - plays left wing - power forward at 70. Rated at 85

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 12:35 PM ET

d ca's avatar

I like the D draft picks. We will need more top 4 guys than just Sider and Hronek in a few years. I also like that Stevie is moving up to get his guys

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 07/24/21 at 12:15 PM ET

They really need to develop these guys. They have a ton of d-men that were drafted in recent drafts…more players than spots. If half of these guys turn into pros that should cover the top 4 easily.

2021 R1 #6 Simon Edvinsson (18) LHD
2021 R1#35 Shai Buium (18) LHD
2020 R2#32 William Wallinder (19 in a few days) LHD,
2020 R3#63 Donovan Sebrango (19) LHD
2020 R3#70 Eemil Viro (19) LHD
2019 R1 #6 Moritz Seider (20) RHD
2019 R6#177 Gustav Berglund (20) RHD
2019 R2#35 Antti Tuomisto (20) RHD
2019 R2#60 Albert Johansson (20) LHD
2018 R2#36 Jared McIsaac (21) LHD
2017 R2#38 Gustav Lindström (22) RHD
2016 R2#53 Filip Hronek (23) RHD

They really need to start focus on scoring forwards at this point. Problem is that at this point in the draft it is bottom 6 guys available…

 

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 12:38 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar

The Colton Dach Left Wing kid might be worth it if he can work on his skating speed. Supposed to have a heater of a wrist shot.

Not sure if there and any good Centers left.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 12:40 PM ET

awould's avatar

I’m guessing the plan is to get at least one solid scoring forward via trade or FA as there are a lot more of them that become available than top line D or sold goalies. I’m happy to see them stocking up on D and G.

Posted by awould on 07/24/21 at 12:44 PM ET

d ca's avatar

The Colton Dach Left Wing kid might be worth it if he can work on his skating speed. Supposed to have a heater of a wrist shot.

Not sure if there and any good Centers left.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 12:40 PM ET

too late…Chicago with his brother

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 12:56 PM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

They really need to start focus on scoring forwards at this point. Problem is that at this point in the draft it is bottom 6 guys available…

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 12:38 PM ET

I don’t disagree, we need scoring too. SY is likely just going for guys most likely to turn into top 4 D / top 6 F players. Probably didn’t have the same confidence in the forward group selected in the #38 pick range. This year was touted as being D heavy, so looks like stevie is just rolling with it.

I really liked Albert Johansson in last years world junior tourny, hoping he turns into something for us.

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 07/24/21 at 12:58 PM ET

d ca's avatar

2 hours to complete the 2nd round…ridiculous

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 01:00 PM ET

MurrayChadwick's avatar

I don’t mind this approach at all. The three high end centers were off the board by the time we picked 6, and nobody top end was sitting there thereafter.

Stevie is building from the backend out, which is smart if you follow the development trends and what we have currently.  The backend will take 2 years longer to materialize than the front end, and the front end can do so with a solid back end more easily. 

The Wings have their centers for the next 4 years in Larkin Ram and Veleno, and insert whomever in the 2/3 slot. In reality we should have our top 6 in place for the next 2 as well, no more need for wingers.

I assume we’ll focus up front next year and potentially with the trade deadline moves (Leddy?) so the core that he’s drafting/acquiring all builds together in a uniform manner, before the contracts and cap choke us out

Posted by MurrayChadwick from Window Seat on the Captain's Ship on 07/24/21 at 01:06 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar


too late…Chicago with his brother

yep - I knew that was comming.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 01:08 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar

I don’t see him on the board of prospects at all. Could have probably had him as a free agent after the draft.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 01:13 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar

Carter Mazur - #91 in purple

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNzWwDgSzW4&ab_channel=Tri-CityStorm

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 01:21 PM ET

Avatar

We are years away still.  There will be a few more drafts for forwards.  Odds of a player even skating in the NHL outside the first round drop way off.  Part of stock piling picks isn’t just about “kicks at the can” it’s about using them to trade for what you are after.

Posted by SevensForTed on 07/24/21 at 01:21 PM ET

d ca's avatar

I don’t see him on the board of prospects at all. Could have probably had him as a free agent after the draft.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 01:13 PM ET

Mazur?

He was rated between the 3rd and 5th round.  # 67 among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting

assets: speed,  defensive awareness, shot, leadership (captain of team)
cons: needs to add strength and work on forecheck and throwing his body around

Seems like a 4th line shutdown/ PK player

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 01:22 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar


He was rated between the 3rd and 5th round.  # 67 among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting

Ah - kk He isn’t on the list I was looking at.

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 01:27 PM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

Muzur’s potential from the hockey writers:

When it comes to his NHL potential, Mazur could realistically project to be a middle-six winger who can play a versatile scoring and shutdown role on whichever team decides to draft him. If he is able to get stronger, he’ll be able to contribute in more ways than just offensively, which would make him a good asset to have in both even strength and special teams situations.

Small skilled winger. Likely more of a depth guy with scoring ability and hard work ethic from what I’ve read.

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 07/24/21 at 01:28 PM ET

OlderThanChelios's avatar

Mazur’s a Detroit native and a former Little Ceasars player. I’ll bet he’s thrilled right now. And he’s going to the U of Denver just like Buium. Interesting.

The backend will take 2 years longer to materialize than the front end, and the front end can do so with a solid back end more easily.

Must. Not. Type. What. I’m. Thinking.  rolleyes

Posted by OlderThanChelios from Grand Rapids, MI on 07/24/21 at 01:38 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Justin Robidas is a name I’d like to see for Detroit. speed and work effort

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 01:44 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Come on Robidas at 102 now

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 02:39 PM ET

d ca's avatar

okay at 114 now…

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 02:47 PM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

Depth and long shot part of the draft now. When was Hakan Andersons last late round gem? He’s probably about due for another one

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 07/24/21 at 02:54 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

Looks like we acquired a pick at 155 for moving back a couple.  So, 114, 134, 155, 166 now.

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 02:54 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

... well I like the name….

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 03:06 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

Redmond (Red) Savage from EliteProspects:

With a bit of space down low, Savage is a flashy, occasionally dynamic offensive creator. In transition, he manipulates defenders with hands and feet that transmit different information, eye deception, and nearly unmatched pace. Slip and hook passes, even when moving, and a desire to hunt the high-danger option makes him a set-up threat. And, he’s a threat from mid-range with his mechanically-sound wrister shot. -EliteProspects 2021 NHL Draft Guide

A problem for opponents on the forecheck and an absolute beast on the penalty kill, EPRinkside.com

He’s got a refined offensive game, showing the ability to beat defenders with a slick dangle or stickhandling move, EPRinkside.com

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 03:08 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

From Dobber Prospects:

Red Savage, C/W, U.S. U18, USNTDP
DH pre-Draft: 72

Every year, the U.S. National Team Development Program seems to produce a quality player
that’s somewhat buried in their lineup due to their abundance of talent. Savage is the player a lot
of analysts like in that sense. His motor and consistency are what jump off the screen right away.
His sneaky skill and understanding of what to do next on any given play will make him a player
coaches can lean on in important moments. In fact, Savage’s skill is what makes many believe he
could develop into more if given the opportunity. He rarely overcomplicates things. Instead, he’ll
make the simple, correct play time after time, but he will bust out a dirty dangle once in a while.
Savage could be sneaky valuable in fantasy leagues that count hits and other peripherals.
UPSIDE: 20-31-51 | 3YP: 15-18-33 | COMPARABLE: Zach Hyman

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 03:11 PM ET

Royal Grand Exalted PooBah's avatar

Posted by Royal Grand Exalted PooBah from the basement of the Alamo on 07/24/21 at 03:11 PM ET

Shanny_Fan's avatar

Kid is gonna sell a lot of jerseys if he makes it

Posted by Shanny_Fan on 07/24/21 at 03:17 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

Liam Dower Nilsson on EliteProspects:

He is a playmaker, a passer, a set-up man, the player who feeds you the puck through three layers of defence right on your tape at the goal-mouth and the quarterback of your power play. Dower-Nilsson never reveals the position of his intended outlet. He scans the ice once to locate it and then looks away, only tracking its progress in his peripheral vision. -EliteProspects 2021 NHL Draft Guide

From Dobber Prospects:

Liam Dower-Nilsson, C, Frolunda J20, Nationell
DH pre-Draft: 61
Dower-Nilsson is rounding out his game as a quality two-way center that understands the
importance of play in his own end. He is a good skater that works off his edges through the
neutral zone to evade his opponents and does a good job of providing support when not on the
puck in transition. He shows neat puck skill at times, but there are other times when he seems to
be trying to force a move when a simpler play could have been made. The young Swede has
produced at a solid clip during his time against his age group, but understandably struggled at the
men’s pro level. He may not be the flashiest fantasy option, but there will be real-life value that
likely exceeds that of the former.
UPSIDE: 18-28-46 | 3YP: 12-20-32| COMPARABLE: Nick Bonino

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 03:51 PM ET

Avatar

Frolunda is officially our farm club, right?

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 03:56 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Frolunda is officially our farm club, right?

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 03:56 PM ET

Either that or some players stood out while they were watching Raymond’s progress.

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 04:18 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

Oscar Plandowski, RD:

Elite Prospects:
He chains mohawks into pivots, into crossovers, into absorbing contact…He can pretty much do all the skating moves you want. The handling and shooting skills are there, too. Hands away from body, steps into the pucks…He’s elusive. -EliteProspects 2021 NHL Draft Guide

Dobber Prospects:
Oscar Plandowski, RD, Charlottetown, QMJHL
DH pre-Draft: NR
A smooth-skating defender that loves to join the rush, even if it’s not always appropriate at the
time. He likes to take risks and uses his mobility to make up for it when he does make a mistake.
There is a lot to like in Plandowski’s game when you look at the raw tools that make an NHLer,
but at the same time, he rarely finds a way to put them together consistently. He may display his
mobility and big shot on one shift and then be an overly-reserved defensive presence on another.
He’s still trying to figure out what kind of player he is, which makes his projection a bit more
difficult. There is quite a bit of risk with Plandowski, but if you can get him late, there could be a
good depth blue line piece on a fantasy or NHL roster.
UPSIDE: 8-24-32 | 3YP: 4-18-22 | COMPARABLE: Nick Jensen

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 04:21 PM ET

Steeb's avatar

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 03:56 PM ET

Nick Kronwall is involved in Frolunda’s program at some high level, so Wings mgmt have a bit of an inside track on players there.

Posted by Steeb on 07/24/21 at 04:22 PM ET

Avatar

They really need to start focus on scoring forwards at this point.

Some of those guys have already made the team and are a perfect example of how only 1 or 2 guys out of every big crop of draft picks even makes it. Yes we have a long list of recent D picks but most of them will not make it and only a few of them even have top4 potential. Other than Seider we have no potential elite top line defenders in the system. A handful of guys who might make it as 5/6 NHL D and a couple more who might be 3/4 guys.

At the end of the day SY has preached BPA and he’s shown a willingness to trade. Top tier defenseman have huge trade value as well. If more than enough of these guys start to hit then you trade one away for an established forward. That’s why you draft for BPA.

Posted by beantownredwings on 07/24/21 at 04:26 PM ET

Hippy Dave's avatar

Last pick - Pasquale Zito C from the Windsor Spitfires 5’11’’ 166

Looks like he didn’t play last year. 

Couldn’t dig up much but here’s his fight card: https://www.hockeyfights.com/players/n30870 - he’s got a little pit bull in him.

 

Posted by Hippy Dave from Somewhere West of Detroit on 07/24/21 at 04:43 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Posted by beantownredwings on 07/24/21 at 04:26 PM ET

Yes and no. You draft for BPA to a point. You can’t keep drafting RHD when you already have 2 penciled in for the next 7 years. And when you draft 2 d-men in the top 6 in ‘19 and ‘21 you probably want to select a different position in ‘22 even if you skip over the BPA to the next best.

I think you are overemphasizing the system vs the organization—especially due to the ages of the players on the Wings. Hronek to me may not be “elite” but is a top 3 d-man in any system for sure and between Seider and Honek you have your top 2 RHD’s and the only RHD opening is 3rd pair. Lindstrom is that (and 3rd pairing guy should be replaceable without too much trouble if he becomes too expensive for that pairing). So that locks down the right side for the next 7 years at least (as Hronek is 23, Seider 20, Lindstrom 22). And the right side is supposedly the harder side to fill.

So now I am looking for 3 additional LHD d-men out of all the remaining picks (and really 2 because you took Edvinsson in the top 6). So I need a 2nd pairing guy and 3rd pairing guy out of:

2021 R2#35 Shai Buium (18) LHD
2020 R2#32 William Wallinder (19 in a few days) LHD,
2020 R3#63 Donovan Sebrango (19) LHD
2020 R3#70 Eemil Viro (19) LHD
2019 R2#60 Albert Johansson (20) LHD
2018 R2#36 Jared McIsaac (21) LHD

...and if none turn out then 2nd/3rd pairing d-men are available on the UFA market. But I suspect they have 2 guys that can be 2nd/3rd pairing guys in those prospects above.

But more to you point:
During a normal draft year sure you hope for 1 or 2,however; the Wings had way more high round picks than a normal draft year the last few. They had 4 picks in the first 2 rounds in each of the last 3 years. That changes the math probabilities.

Where they draft too is key to having guys make the team as

80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players.

Those percentages increase when picking in the top 10 in the 1st round and towards the top of the 2nd and 3rd. There will be up and down years as best summed up by Nail Yakupov vs Sidney Crosby at #1, but multiple years of multiple high picks change the expected results for sure.

...and don’t forget the Wings have an extra pick in the 2nd and two extra’s in the 4th next year plus at least Leddy, Namestnikov, and Stetcher to trade along with two cap retention contracts they can absorb this year for even more draft capital…they are still a non-playoff expected team so there’s always the draft lottery next year.

finally, to your point about trading a BPA d-man is that what you gave up is not always what you will get back. Sure you can trade a d-man that becomes a 2nd pairing guy and the 3-4 years of development your organization put in to him—but that doesn’t mean you got equal guy back as it’s usually for a future draft pick.

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 05:28 PM ET

Avatar

I still cannot understand what happened to Aatu Raty. He was projected to go between 15 and 25 on 95% of mock drafts. Went 52nd. Not that I know who he is, but reading how many DRW fans wanted him at 23, I am curious now.

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 05:32 PM ET

Avatar

You can’t keep drafting RHD when you already have 2 penciled in for the next 7 years.

That’s unequivocally wrong. A strong RHD has some of the best trade value on the market. You don’t pass up an elite or better player because you’re missing a winger with less value. You go out and use that 3rd awesome RHD to address your area + more. This is pretty basic actually and SY has been saying this for two years.

Hronek is a 2nd pair guy on most teams. He is not top 3 in every system, only in the bottom tier teams of the league. Like us.

There were no elite centers in this deaft. McTavish and Beniers were both gone and they aren’t even #1 guys. You don’t reach for a guy who maybe just maybe will turn out to be a 3c when you’ve got a guy like Edvinsson sitting right there with top our potential and guaranteed top4 written all over him.

Making the team and elite top line/top pair type guys are two different things. Did you really want to force a center and end up with another Rasmussen?

If your biggest need is elite centers the best way to get that via trade is having an elite defenseman. If you’re trading for futures you do so pulling in more picks. SY has shown amazing ability to trade in this league since taking over in TB and I have all of the confidence in him moving forward.


Bottom line is dont reach in the top ten for bottom forwards when there are elite D available.

Posted by beantownredwings on 07/24/21 at 05:48 PM ET

SYF's avatar

Frolunda is officially our farm club, right?

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 03:56 PM ET

The water and fertilizer are top notch.  Excellent seeds.  Clean fields (ice?).  Healthy air.  Plenty of room to roam.  LOL

Posted by SYF from impossible and oddly communally possessive sluts on 07/24/21 at 06:06 PM ET

Avatar

If your biggest need is elite centers the best way to get that via trade is having an elite defenseman

Ryan Johansson for Seth Jones comes to mind

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 06:13 PM ET

d ca's avatar

Posted by beantownredwings on 07/24/21 at 05:48 PM ET

Absolutely disagree with you—there is a difference between “grabbing a d-man” and continuing to add RHD when you have a clear log jam of them and will do so for the foreseeable future.

BTW Edvinsson’s a LHD. That was an area of need and has nothing to do with grabbing another RHD. There was a need at LHD, G, and #1 centre.

The grabbing another winger example doesn’t apply to the Wings either as they are flushed with those too (Vrána, Zadina, Raymond, Berggren, and Rasmussen plus Fabbri if you think Veleno is the team’s better centre). In fact grabbing another winger would be worse than grabbing another RHD.

look at their last rankings:
Pronman’s
2. Dylan Guenther, RW, Edmonton-WHL
3. William Eklund, LW, Djurgarden-SHL
4. Luke Hughes, LHD, U.S. NTDP-USHL
8. Brandt Clarke, RHD, Barrie-OHL
10. Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton-WHL
11. Jesper Wallstedt, G, Lulea-SHL
12. Simon Edvinsson, LHD, Frolunda-SHL

Wheeler’s
3. Brandt Clarke — RHD, Barrie Colts/HC Nove Zamky, 6-foot-2
5. William Eklund — C/LW, Djurgårdens IF, 5-foot-10
6. Dylan Guenther — LW/RW, Edmonton Oil Kings/Sherwood Park Crusaders, 6-foot-2
7. Luke Hughes — LHD, U.S. NTDP, 6-foot-2
11.  Simon Edvinsson — LHD, Frölunda HC/Västerås IK, 6-foot-4

Clarke was the RHD. Clarke was rated higher than Edvinsson by more than a few scouts. In fact the NHL Draft Consensus Board showed:
3. William Eklund
4. Brandt Clarke
5. Dylan Guenther
6. Luke Hughes
7. Mason McTavish
8. Simon Edvinsson

You didn’t see SY grab better rated Clarke because RHD are valued more than LHD did you? No he choose need.

The NHL Draft Consensus Board used sources that included: TSN’s Bob McKenzie,TSN’s Craig Button, DobberProspects, Data analyst Rachel Doerrie, DraftPro, Elite Prospects, FC Hockey, Tony Ferrari, The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy,McKeen’s Hockey, Hockey Sense with Chris Peters, Red Line Report, Cam Robinson, Mark Seidel,  Scouching Smaht Scouting, The Draft Analyst, The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, and The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler. Given that McKenzie’s list comprises its own consensus of 10 NHL scouts, it was weighted more heavily, with his ranking accounting for one-third of the average score (in essence giving each of the scouts he surveyed equal weight to one of the other 20 lists that made up the rest of the consensus arrived at here).

Look at Craig Button’s last mock draft:
3. Anaheim Ducks - Dylan Guenther
5. Columbus Blue Jackets - Simon Edvinsson

Look at Corey Pronman’s last mock draft:
3. Anaheim: William Eklund, LW, Djurgarden-SHL
5. Columbus: Simon Edvinsson, LHD, Frolunda-SHL

you didn’t see SY take the BPA (either winger) ...no he grabbed need LHD.

...bottom line is that there are a magnitude of factors in drafting a player and organizational needs sometimes mean you skip over a position and player that your scouts may have rated slightly ahead of another. No one is talking about skipping over an elite d-man to grab a bottom six forward and saying so is a ridiculous example.

Organizational need does explain why the Wings took Cossa over Chaz Lucius or Cole Sillinger even though BPA wasn’t a goalie. Again it’s need and what the organization has already.

Posted by d ca on 07/24/21 at 06:54 PM ET

Avatar

Watched the interview with Nilson, what a confident matured young man. Captain of team Sweden U-18 I think.
His best friend is Edvinssom and they were watching draft in the same room:)

Posted by VPalmer on 07/24/21 at 07:14 PM ET

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Welcome to Abel to Yzerman, a Red Wing blog since 1977.  No other site on the internet has better-researched, fact-laden and better prepared discussions than A2Y.  Re-phrase: we do little research, find facts and stats highly overrated and claim little to no preparation.  There are 19 readers of A2Y. No more, no less. All of them, except maybe one, are juvenile in nature.  Reminding them of that in the comment section will only encourage them to prove that. Your suggestions and critiques are welcome: wphoulihan@gmail.com