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The Only Playoff Hope For The Wings - “A Huge, Huge Run”

Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News with the truth.

The Red Wings will have to go on a huge, huge run, something like Ottawa’s 20-1-2 stretch three years ago, and that is so unlikely.

Kulfan responds to a few questions so read on...

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Comments

PierreC's avatar

again ..Something from Kulfan i don’t agree. The Wings don’t need what he says, but they need more like 20-8 or around that, its always depend on what the other teams will do.

Posted by PierreC from Montreal, Canada on 01/11/18 at 08:20 PM ET

bigfrog's avatar

Agreed. The Red Wings need to win around two thirds of their remaining games to have a chance at a playoff berth. Not happening. angry

Posted by bigfrog on 01/11/18 at 08:38 PM ET

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2018 Playoffs run < The future of the Red Wings

Even if the wings do make some miraculous run, with some help from other teams, they still need to ship Mike Green and Nyquist for some picks. If Holland still has some of that magic that everyone always looks back on then he should be able to fetch two first round picks for those two. With 3 first rounders he should easily be able package 2 of them for Dahlin or another cornerstone defenseman. Then it’s all about development in the big leagues. I’m sick of seeing all of the young talent we have stuck playing in the minors because of the bad contracts we have clogging the lineup. I loved watching the veterans we have and appreciate all they have done for the Wings over the years, but I know a lot of us fans want to see a new Wings team with some younger faces.

Posted by JaySayers on 01/11/18 at 08:43 PM ET

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The vets are playing ok but their presence is preventing some of the younger guys from taking on bigger roles and possibly a couple of others from being on the roster. Would that generate more wins?

Probably not, but it would lead to more intensity and fire, I suspect, provided they had a coach with a good head for the game…something that Blashill lacks at this level.

Posted by NewfieWing on 01/11/18 at 10:02 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

I would contend that the Wings are good at evaluating the talent they have while here. Not at the draft.

So young guys not coming up now is a fine indicator that our young players arent nhl ready.

Posted by ilovehomers on 01/11/18 at 10:45 PM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

And of course getting rid of that talent in a timely manner when they know its not up to expectations or need

Posted by ilovehomers on 01/11/18 at 10:56 PM ET

Alan's avatar

If the Wings can go on a few four game streaks (with the obvious loss here and there), they could potentially push their way into the offseason. They probably won’t go much farther than the first round, but I digress.

The fact remains, of course: If the boys wanna make the second season, they’re gonna have to want it, and work for it. That remains to be seen.

Posted by Alan from Atlanta on 01/12/18 at 03:45 AM ET

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Rather than constantly debating what the RWs should do, lets wait and see what they do.

That will tell us all how serious they are about becoming a contender, or just want to keep the cash register full.

Posted by NEWing on 01/12/18 at 05:36 AM ET

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Yeah, no Ted. It’s an uphill battle for sure, but 20-1-2? It’s extremely unlikely the Wings would need anything close to that.

Right now looking at the odds, if the Wings can get to 92 points they’d have a 50-50 (or thereabouts) chance of getting in. That would mean they need 10 more wins than regulation losses the rest of the way—so something like 23-13-5.

If 50-50 seems too dicey to you, adjust from there. 96 points looks like a 98% chance to be good enough, which would be 14 more wins than regulation losses (25-11-5 or so). On the other side, just 90 points is good enough for a 1 in 4 chance.

I mean, it’s still a tall enough mountain that there’s very little chance of it happening, but no need to make it sound even worse than it already is.

Hat tip to Sports Club Stats for the calculations.

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 01/12/18 at 07:55 AM ET

Primis's avatar

This team needs a 1-20-2 stretch far more than they need a 20-1-2 stretch.

Posted by Primis on 01/12/18 at 08:55 AM ET

Colin's avatar

Let’s not obfuscate things.

In order to reach the 93pts they had the last time they skidded backwards, screaming, and on-fire into the playoffs in 2016, the Wings need 52 points, or the equivalent of 26 regulation wins. That is a huge ask for this team in 41 short games. At an absolute maximum, this means they can only go pointless in 15 games, and that’s if they literally go 26-15 for the remainder of the season, which I haven’t seen us do for quite a while. You have 82pts available for the balance of the season, and you need 52. This means you need a .634 point percentage from here to May. For comparison, that is about the clip that BOSTON, 2nd place in the Atlantic, is currently performing at.

Furthermore, even if we are able to make a 180 and suddenly become 2nd in the conference good, it still isn’t a guarantee.

Projecting the current wildcard teams out at their current, not wishful scoring pace to the end of the season, the Rangers will end up with 98pts, Carolina will have 92pts.

In all, it is a joke to me that people think we actually have a shot at the playoffs.

Posted by Colin from Ken Holland's new yacht, "Incompetence" on 01/12/18 at 09:44 AM ET

ilovehomers's avatar

skidded backwards, screaming, and on-fire into the playoffs in 2016

Ahhh, memories.

Posted by ilovehomers on 01/12/18 at 09:56 AM ET

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It sounds like Kenny spent the bye week crunching some numbers…and then tipped off Kulfan that the hope is to go 20-1-2. Solid work Kenny. Meanwhile another GM acquired Duclair for a song, shedding salary in the process.

Posted by fatsavage on 01/12/18 at 10:37 AM ET

Red Winger's avatar

They don’t have to go on a huge run, they just have to go on a huge process.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie, MI on 01/12/18 at 11:54 AM ET

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I wonder why Duclair wasn’t traded back in November when The Yotes could have gotten more for him because the market wasn’t as saturated as it is now?

#Hawksfleeceanotherteam

Posted by howeandhowe from Seattle on 01/12/18 at 01:15 PM ET

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another GM acquired Duclair for a song, shedding salary in the process.

I have not been following Chicago this year (actually was very surprised Seabrook was a healthy scratch recently), but from what I remember Panik is a very good 26 year old player.

Posted by VPalmer on 01/12/18 at 05:05 PM ET

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“They don’t have to go on a huge run, they just have to go on a huge process”.

Posted by Red Winger from Sault Ste Marie, MI on 01/12/18 at 11:54 AM ET

That’s funny. I love “process” jokes,

Posted by Mackster from Eastern Canada on 01/12/18 at 06:39 PM ET

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The Malik Report is a destination for all things Red Wings-related. I offer biased, perhaps unprofessional-at-times and verbose coverage of my favorite team, their prospects and developmental affiliates. I've joined the Kukla's Korner family with five years of blogging under my belt, and I hope you'll find almost everything you need to follow your Red Wings at a place where all opinions are created equal and we're all friends, talking about hockey and the team we love to follow.

 

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