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The Malik Report

Red Wings mid-day news: scouting the Leafs, Yakupov training in Detroit and draft talk

As it turns out, the supposedly quietest weekend of the off-season's yielded a conveniently-planted rumor about the Red Wings sending Jordin Tootoo back to Nashville, a solid number of overnight report stories and a state-of-the-Wings assessment from Ken Holland, and MLive's Ansar Khan continues his survey of the Red Wings' Eastern Conference foes with a survey of the Toronto Maple Leafs (Khan's also penned articles about the Canadiens, Senators, Bruins, Sabres, Panthers and Lightning):

Maple Leafs' strengths: Scoring shouldn't be a problem, as the Leafs have two potent lines with a top six led by Phil Kessel, the team leader in goals, assists and points. Nazem Kadri had a breakout season (18 goals, 44 points). Joffrey Lupul missed two-thirds of the season with injuries but managed 18 points in 16 games. David Clarkson, one of this year's top free agents, adds goal-scoring ability and toughness to a team that led the NHL in fighting majors (44) by a large margin without him in 2013. They have two good checking centers in newly acquired Dave Bolland and Jay McClement. They have a solid combination in goal with James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier, who had backed up Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles.

Maple Leafs' weaknesses: Puck management was an issue, as the Leafs led the league in giveaways. They also tied for the worst shot differential in the league (minus-6). They are rumored to be shopping Cody Franson, their scoring leader on defense, who's a restricted free agent. That would leave them thinner on an average blue line anchored by Dion Phaneuf.

Maple Leafs outlook: The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time since 2004 and were poised to knock off the Boston Bruins in the opening round before a monumental Game 7 collapse – the Bruins scored three times in the final 11 minutes of regulation to tie it and won 6-5 in overtime. It should be a learning experience for a Leafs team on the rise. Toronto should make the playoffs, if not challenge the Bruins for the division.

Khan continues at length, and I'm already in an, "I despise the Leafs" mood today because HockeySverige.se's Uffe Bodin posted a frickin' hour-long Hockey Night in Canada-produced documenary of the Leafs' successful 1992-93 season (and I was in attendance when they defeated the Wings in the first round of the playoffs in rather devastating fashion).

I'd much rather be in Grand Marais than headed to Wal-Mart on a rainy late July Sunday anyway, so hearning Joe Bowen say that classic Torontonian one-wording of the "TorontomapleLEAFS'" name gets my dander up almost instinctively.

 

 

 

In other news, I was a little surprised to read that Edmonton Oilers forward Nail Yakupov told Sport-Express's Sergey Gavrilov that he's going to be spending his August training in Metro Detroit with Igor Larionov, but I'm guessing that Larionov brings most of his clients to the Motor City in the summer. I wonder if Yakupov will be skating with the Wings when they begin informal practices in Troy and at the Joe...

If you were not aware of this promotion...

And the Detroit Athletic Company's Bruce Mason continues his two-part analysis of the Wings' draft history (again, Detroit Athletic is a merchandise-selling shop that happens to posit articles about Detroit sports, so you've been warned), following up his take on Jimmy Devellano's tenure as the team's decision-maker with a surprising stat about the Wings' luck in the first round...

For such a dominant organization that’s among the best in all of professional sports, its quite humorous – and impressive – that the Wings have had 39 first-round picks, and just one stayed for his entire career: Steve Yzerman.

But I'm just not a fan of spending so much time nitpicking about who the Wings could've picked when players actually pan out, even if they're not superstars...

Wings general manager Bryan Murray made a solid selection in Martin Lapointe (10th overall, 1991), but he could have selected a dynamic player such as Alexei Kovalev (1,029 points), who was selected 15th overall, or Markus Naslund (869 points) taken 16th overall. Lapointe had 381 career NHL points and 1,417 penalty minutes.

In 1992, Murray selected Curtis Bowen (22nd overall), who never played an NHL game. And in 1993, he chose defenseman Anders Eriksson, who played 151 games across three seasons but never reached his potential. The very next pick after Eriksson? Todd Bertuzzi (New York Islanders), who later went to Vancouver and scored 25 goals or more in five of six seasons from 1999-2000 through 2005-06.

Eriksson was just the start of a bad string of luck with defensemen selections. The Wings followed with Yan Golubovsky (23rd overall, 1994), Maxim Kuznetsov (26th overall, 1995), Jesse Wallin (26th overall, 1996) and Jiri Fischer (1998, 25th overall).

And he continues by noting that Ken Holland's Wings picked Jakub Kindl ahead of Tuukka Rask. During every draft year, there are always cringe-worthy, "Why did the Wings pass over X for Y?" scenarios, but that's the truth for the 29 teams that didn't know that X was going to develop into a superstar and Y was not.

Drafting is the first step in the player development process, and the Red Wings' drafting record has gotten a little better in no small part due to the team's increasingly heavy emphasis on and investment in ensuring that their players are given every competitive advantage in terms of learning how to train properly, how to work on improving their on-ice skills and offering mentorship and guidance to their prospects...

But drafting is still a guessing game, and player development truly depends on the players themselves as it does on the teams who pick them--and when you've got a 1-in-30 chance for drafting a player in 1 of 7 rounds instead of a 1-in-20 chance of picking a player over the course of 12 rounds, the post-second-lockout draft is really stacked against teams attempting to make needle-in-haystack picks, so the closer the Wings get to the present, the harder it becomes to grab someone that another team hasn't seen or to really out-wait an opponent for that player your scouts aren't completely sold upon.

That's not an excuse for the Wings' draft gaffes, but it's an explanation as to why the, "The Wings should have picked Mike Cammalleri over Igor Grigorenko" comparisons in even regarding early-2000's picks becomes harder and harder as we get closer and closer to watching a team attempt to pick players whose careers are still in progress while scouting on an ever-increasingly-even playing field. It's gotten incredibly hard to out-scout your opponents, and when the "jury is still out," it's not nearly as easy--or fair--to play the "should've and could've" game.

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Comments

HockeytownOverhaul's avatar

We’re going to be a seeing a “Who the Wings could’ve drafted after Tyler Bertuzzi”

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 07/28/13 at 12:48 PM ET

Primis's avatar

We’re going to be a seeing a “Who the Wings could’ve drafted after Tyler Bertuzzi”

Posted by HockeytownOverhaul on 07/28/13 at 01:48 PM ET

Doubt it.  We have yet to see a “who was drafted after Evan McGrath”.  If Lil’ Bert bombs, it’ll just be forgotten completely unless nobody else in the 2013 draft class pans out either.

Posted by Primis on 07/28/13 at 01:01 PM ET

calquake's avatar

If anyone is interested, NHL channel playing Ducks vs Wings Game 6 from 5/10/13.

Posted by calquake on 07/28/13 at 01:09 PM ET

Primis's avatar

BTW… re: Anders Eriksson… he got a return of one Chris Chelios.

Re: on Maxim Kuznetsov… he got a return of one Mathieu Schneider.

When you realize that, it makes it a lt harder to bang on those picks.

Eriksson was just the start of a bad string of luck with defensemen selections. The Wings followed with Yan Golubovsky (23rd overall, 1994), Maxim Kuznetsov (26th overall, 1995), Jesse Wallin (26th overall, 1996) and Jiri Fischer (1998, 25th overall).

There was nothing wrong with the Jiri Fischer pick, even in retrospect.  You can’t even call what happened to him “bad luck” because it may have saved his life.

Posted by Primis on 07/28/13 at 08:35 PM ET

Vladimir16's avatar

“The Wings should have picked Mike Cammalleri over Igor Grigorenko”

Fuch that! Grigorenko could have been something special if hadn’t nearly died in a car accident.

Posted by Vladimir16 from Grand River Valley on 07/29/13 at 07:07 AM ET

Nathan's avatar

Hate to be too defensive (no pun intended), but the Fischer pick was a very good pick that was panning out quite well going through the Wings’ usual “slow burn” development process. No, he wasn’t going to be Nick Lidstrom #2, but he had turned himself into essentially what a guy like Brad Stuart became—utterly dependable, rock solid, stay-at-home D with a very good first pass. Also, Kindl’s game improved dramatically last season to a point where he’s starting to look like the guy we’ve always wanted him to be. It’s probably too soon to jump to saying he’s “arrived,” but this upcoming season will be telling. If he continues the way he played last year (with some more improvements), I’ll be thrilled.

I think people too often think “first round pick” and think of stars. But how many true stars are there in the game? You don’t have to get dominant player in the first round to consider the pick a largely successful, and good choice. It’s hard to get solid NHLers that can stick for a decent number of games. When you get guys that play hundreds of NHL games and produce, you probably did okay.

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 07/29/13 at 07:21 AM ET

shanetx's avatar

I wish more distinction was drawn between first round picks versus, say, top three-to-five.  In the NBA there is a distinction between first round and lottery picks.  The NHL is different in that later rounds have a better chance of yielding talent, but also different in that the players are much younger on the development curve.  If a 25-30 guy is an every day player then it was a pretty decent pick.  If a top three guy is merely an every day player it might not have been a good pick.  Far from the same. 

I’d also suspect the Wings have one of if not the lowest average draft position of all teams.  That is pretty huge.

Posted by shanetx from Floydada, Texas on 07/29/13 at 09:21 AM ET

Primis's avatar

I’d also suspect the Wings have one of if not the lowest average draft position of all teams.  That is pretty huge.

Posted by shanetx from Floydada, Texas on 07/29/13 at 10:21 AM ET

The Hockey News confirmed this recently:  DET has easily the lowest average draft position in the last 10-15 years I think it was.  I think SJ is next then…

I don’t consider any 1st rounder that plays some at the NHL level a “bust”.  There are guys like Hugh Jessiman that don’t ever make it, now THERE is a bust.

Posted by Primis on 07/29/13 at 09:29 AM ET

Nathan's avatar

I think the expectation of what you get out of a draft pick from pick #1 overall down to the last pick in the draft should be an exponential decay. Pretty quickly right in the first round, your expectations should lower quite a bit. I like shanetx’s point about how in the NBA people generally consider lottery picks and the rest of the first round almost like two different rounds when it comes to judging the quality of the player. The NHL is really a similar thing (adjusted for the larger NHL roster size and thus less reliance on star players).

Posted by Nathan from the scoresheet! on 07/29/13 at 10:22 AM ET

Kate from Pa.-made in Detroit's avatar

That’s not an excuse for the Wings’ draft gaffes, but it’s an explanation as to why the, “The Wings should have picked Mike Cammalleri over Igor Grigorenko”


Cammi was pulled from a game in progress. He was traded from the Habs back to Calgary. Taken right off the ice if I remember correctly. That tells me something aboot character.

Grigorenko was highly touted, but, was injured in an auto accident in Russia. He came to camp out of shape and thought he was somehow entitled to jump right into the big league.


Lets Go Red Wings!!!!!

Posted by Kate from Pa.-made in Detroit on 07/29/13 at 12:33 PM ET

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The Malik Report is a destination for all things Red Wings-related. I offer biased, perhaps unprofessional-at-times and verbose coverage of my favorite team, their prospects and developmental affiliates. I've joined the Kukla's Korner family with five years of blogging under my belt, and I hope you'll find almost everything you need to follow your Red Wings at a place where all opinions are created equal and we're all friends, talking about hockey and the team we love to follow.