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Worst 20 Team And Zone Adjusted Corsi Rating

As I continue looking at sabermetrics and hockey, I am looking at the worst 20 players by team and zone adjusted Corsi ratings.  This is the converse to the top 20 players list that I have already written about.

This group of players did very poorly in terms of puck possession in 2010/11.  The list is found by measuring the raw Corsi rating of all players in the league (this is the difference between attempted shots for and against when a player is on the ice at 5 on 5).  That number is then adjusted for team effects and for zone starts (whether or not a player is on the ice for faceoffs in the offensive, defensive or neutral zones).  This provides context to give a pretty good individual assessment of an individual player’s puck possession success.  In principle other effects can be taken into account including quality of linemates and opposition players, but this is more complex and has less of an effect on the numbers.

Here are the worst 20 players by team and zone adjusted Corsi ratings in 2010/11:

2010/11 Worst 20 Players By Team and Zone Adjusted Corsi Ratings
Rank  
Player   
Team   
Adj Corsi Rating
1Cam FowlerAna

-227.12

2Jamal MayersSJ

-208.76

3Tanner GlassVan

-206.92

4Cam JanssenStL

-204.52

5Travis MoenMon

-194.24

6Marcus JohanssonWas

-193.84

7Craig AdamsPit

-179

8Bryan BickellChi

-174.8

9Rod PelleyNJ

-170.16

10Rene BourqueCal

-161.56

11Deryk EngellandPit

-159.4

12Rob NiedermayerBuf

-157

13Shaone MorrisonnBuf

-156

14Luca SbisaAna

-152.12

15Dan GirardiNYR

-150.6

16Robyn RegehrCal

-148.36

17Jordan LeopoldBuf

-146

18Erik ChristensenNYR

-142.2

19Fernando PisaniChi

-141

20Scott NicholSJ

-139.96



I have only included players who played 50 or more games played in 2010/11 in this list.  This is necessary to ensure that the team adjustment is meaningful.  I have also only included players who played only for one team in the season as a team adjustment is less certain when a player is with more than one team in the season.  The second restriction likely is the only reason that Paul Mara, Brent Sopel, Joffrey Lupul and Ben Eager are not on this list.

For the most part this is a group of borderline NHL players who had little value in 2010/11.  The player who is seen as having the biggest value on this list is likely Robyn Regehr of Calgary, who has been acquired by Buffalo.  I think he is worthy of another post to look at his case.

Paul Mara probably would have led this list by a significant margin.  That is likely a significant part of the reason that he remains unsigned this summer, however he split the season between Anaheim and Montreal, so he cannot be included on htis list correctly (though I accidentally had him on the earliest version).  That leaves Cam Fowler as the worst player by adjusted Corsi in the league last year.  He was a potential laden rookie who probably wasn’t ready to be an NHL player.  Though he showed offensive ability, his defence was not nearly up to NHL standards and as a result his opponents usually had the puck when he was on the ice.  Fowler will get a future post to discuss his case.

This list is some of the worst puck possession players in the 2010/11 season.  These players are largely liabilities to their respective teams.  Either their team expects better performances in the future (i.e. Cam Fowler) or they would like to replace these players if they have sufficient depth.

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Comments

Bossy_Rules's avatar

How do you adjust for zone starts?  How many shots is a zone start worth?

Posted by Bossy_Rules on 08/12/11 at 06:50 PM ET

PuckStopsHere's avatar

An excess offensive zone start is worth 0.8 Corsi events.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 08/12/11 at 06:53 PM ET

Bossy_Rules's avatar

Thanks.  Another thing I wonder is which of those 20 worst players got the most ice time?  I mean which coaches seem least aware of their own players shortcomings?  Also Rene Bourque had 27 goals for the 2nd straight year.  Its hard to believe they want to replace him.  It was his 3rd season in a row with sh% above 12.

Posted by Bossy_Rules on 08/12/11 at 07:09 PM ET

PuckStopsHere's avatar

Of these 20 players, Dan Girardi of the New York Rangers had the most even strength ice time in 2010/11.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 08/12/11 at 07:15 PM ET

Bossy_Rules's avatar

I’m not surprised.  Glen Sather is a poor GM in my opinion.  On that note I don’t Brad Richards is the superstar the Rangers think they are getting.

Posted by Bossy_Rules on 08/12/11 at 07:36 PM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

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