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Worst 20 Raw Corsi Ratings

I am continuing my look at sabermetrics and hockey today.  Yesterday, I listed the players with the top 20 Corsi ratings as counting numbers and today I will list the worst 20.  Corsi is a measure of the difference between shots directed at goal (on goal, missed net and blocked) by a player’s team and his opponents.  It is used as an alternative for +/- because it encompasses far more events than only goals scored and is an indicator of puck possession.

The players scoring worst in Corsi Ratings are poor at puck possession.  They also likely play on teams that are poor at puck possession and are often used in defensive roles, where it is expected that the opposition team will most likely control the puck.  While being on this list is not a sign of a good player, it is not necessarily a sign of a poor NHL player.  Other factors can have come into play to keep the rating low.

Here are the 20 worst raw Corsi Ratings from 2009/10:

2009/10 Worst 20 Raw Corsi Numbers
Rank  
Player   
Team   
Corsi 
1Keith BallardFla

-412

2Jason StrudwickEdm

-407

3Ethan MoreauEdm

-349

4Scott HannanCol

-326

5Todd MarchantAna

-305

6Kyle QuinceyCol

-289

7Steven ReinprechtFla

-284

8Richard ParkNYI

-281

8Bryan AllenFla

-281

10Radek DvorakFla

-274

11Steve EmingerAna

-273

12Taylor ChorneyEdm

-268

13Adam FooteCol

-266

14Nate ThompsonTB

-264

15Kamil KrepsFla

-248

16Ryan O’ReillyCol

-239

17TJ GaliardiCol

-231

18Karlis SkrastinsDal

-221

19Gregory CampbellFla

-220

19Jan HejdaCBJ

-220



Team effects are clear while looking at this table.  There are only eight teams represented (Florida, Edmonton, Colorado, NY Islanders, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, Dallas and Columbus).  Six players on the list come from the Florida Panthers, who had a horrible season in terms of puck possession.  They were kept close to a playoff spot by incredible play from goaltender Tomas Vokoun.

Colorado is a surprise team on the list of poor Corsis.  They qualified for the playoffs, but did so with poor puck possession numbers.  It was due to strong goaltending from Craig Anderson and a bit of good luck that is likely unsustainable into next year.  I do not think Colorado will be able to maintain a playoff berth next year.

One player worthy of note on this list is Taylor Chorney of the Edmonton Oilers.  He played only 42 games all season and managed to fall to 12th on this list.  He does not look like an NHL calibre player.

Keith Ballard, the new Vancouver Canuck, will likely see a huge increase in his Corsi next year due to playing on a much better team, but he is the worst in the NHL by Corsi rating last season.

This list of players is largely a list of players used in defensive situations on weak teams.  They had poor puck possession.  While none of these players can claim that they had strong 2009/10 seasons, further adjustments to these numbers will better elucidate which of these players failed due to circumstance and which of these players failed due to incompetence.

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Comments

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

I’m a bit surprised to see Kyle Quincey as the 2nd-highest Avalanche player on this list after he got a 2 year, $6.5M contract.  I know he eats up big minutes, but it seems he’s not worth that much.

As a Wings fan who has regretted for the last several years that we had to lose him for nothing due to some tough depth decisions at defense, his contract and his place on this list makes me feel much better.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/07/10 at 12:51 PM ET

Leo_Racicot's avatar

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/07/10 at 10:51 AM ET

Not having followed the Avs but from a eyebrow-raising distance this past season, I wonder the following about Quincey and these stats:

- Do the Corsi numbers care about even strength -v- power play situations or are all treated equally?

- During even strenght situations, what other skaters would Quincey be typically sent out to the rink with?  Statsny, Hannan and O’Reilly?  If so, the coach might want to shake that up a bit - ha.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20102COLSASAll&sort=teamGoalsAgainst&viewName=plusMinus

- Quincey played better than 23 minutes a game during the regular season (3 of which went to the PP), leading the entire Avs roster (quite impressive given his lack of overall experience):
http://www.nhl.com/ice/app

- With regards to his salary, I agree that it seems a bit inflated.  But when you look at what was on the market this off-season for puck carrying defensemen who can play the point on the PP, there were slim pickings.  His FA timing was quite nice:
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php?team=none&pos=D&summer=none&status=none&type=none

Posted by Leo_Racicot on 07/07/10 at 01:15 PM ET

PuckStopsHere's avatar

Leo

These Corsi Numbers are only for 5 on 5 situations in the regular season.  Penalty kill, power player and 4 on 4 are not included.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 07/07/10 at 01:25 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Leo,

I know from watching him that Quincey is a better defenseman than his raw Corsi rank indicates, I just don’t think he’s $3.25M worth of defenseman at this point in his career. He’s probably only overpaid by about $750K, which isn’t a big deal to the Avalanche who need to worry more about the salary floor than the cap, but it will hurt his trade value.

Just kind of a throwaway statement though. I don’t feel ill will towards Quincey other than he plays for the Avalanche nor do I begrudge him the salary he got.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/07/10 at 01:38 PM ET

Leo_Racicot's avatar

He’s probably only overpaid by about $750K, which isn’t a big deal to the Avalanche who need to worry more about the salary floor than the cap, but it will hurt his trade value.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/07/10 at 11:38 AM ET

Yep, totally agree.  I’m looking at that roster right now and seeing John Michael-Liles contract and production over the past few years, it makes you wonder if the Avs simply have a problem overvaluing young defensemen with a short resume of blueline credentials.

Posted by Leo_Racicot on 07/07/10 at 02:36 PM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

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