by PuckStopsHere on 08/21/11 at 04:21 PM ET
This week I posted the top 20 players by goals versus threshold. Now I am looking at the flip side. Which players cost their team the most goals when compared to a replacement talent. I am using Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold system which attempts to rank players by one number, which is the number of goals a player is alleged to have been worth beyond that which a replacement level player could have produced.
It is easiest to rank goalies because saves percentage can be relatively easily converted into a number of goals prevented. For position players, offence (or lack of it) is easiest to rank and defence is far more difficult. Those position players who will appear on this list are players who had a lot of ice time without scoring.
Here are the worst 20 players in 2010/11 by goals versus threshold:
This list has 15 goaltenders and five forwards. It is clear that goaltenders tend to be the most poorly ranked. This may suggest that the replacement level goaltender is a bit too high, although goaltenders rank at the top of the goals versus threshold list as well. This shows that it is easiest to rank goaltenders. Finding the value of position players is more difficult.
As a case study, I want to look at Brian Elliott, who is the worst on this list. Despite his poor season in 2010/11, he signed as a free agent with the St Louis Blues and will be back in the NHL as a backup to Jaroslav Halak. It isn`t obvious that Elliott is an NHL calibre goalie.
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