The Puck Stops Here
Worst 20 Players By Goals Versus Threshold
by PuckStopsHere on 08/21/11 at 04:21 PM ET
Comments (2)
This week I posted the top 20 players by goals versus threshold. Now I am looking at the flip side. Which players cost their team the most goals when compared to a replacement talent. I am using Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold system which attempts to rank players by one number, which is the number of goals a player is alleged to have been worth beyond that which a replacement level player could have produced.
It is easiest to rank goalies because saves percentage can be relatively easily converted into a number of goals prevented. For position players, offence (or lack of it) is easiest to rank and defence is far more difficult. Those position players who will appear on this list are players who had a lot of ice time without scoring.
Here are the worst 20 players in 2010/11 by goals versus threshold:
Rank | Player | Team | GVT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Elliott | Col | -19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Nikolai Khabibulin | Edm | -16.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Ty Conklin | StL | -13.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Rick DiPietro | NYI | -12.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Chris Mason | Atl | -10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Justin Peters | Car | -9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Peter Budaj | Col | -9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Jonas Gustavsson | Tor | -8,4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Marty Turco | Chi | -7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Steve Mason | CBJ | -6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Todd Marchant | Ana -5.7 -5.3 -5.3 -5.0 -4.7 -3.9 -3.7 -3.7 -3.6 |
This list has 15 goaltenders and five forwards. It is clear that goaltenders tend to be the most poorly ranked. This may suggest that the replacement level goaltender is a bit too high, although goaltenders rank at the top of the goals versus threshold list as well. This shows that it is easiest to rank goaltenders. Finding the value of position players is more difficult.
As a case study, I want to look at Brian Elliott, who is the worst on this list. Despite his poor season in 2010/11, he signed as a free agent with the St Louis Blues and will be back in the NHL as a backup to Jaroslav Halak. It isn`t obvious that Elliott is an NHL calibre goalie.
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Comments
Elliott was definitely not an NHL caliber goalie last year. I don’t need the numbers to tell me that, but it’s nice to see they back me up.
That said, he wasn’t getting great defence last year either.
Between that and his coach seeming to spew bile on him in every post game interview, it’s little wonder his confidence would be shot.
Posted by Da lil Guy from Ottawa on 08/22/11 at 07:23 PM ET
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The Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.
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Brian Elliott may not end up backing up Halak. Ben Bishop (http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=87909) could play him out of his spot in camp - so what if they have to waive Elliott? They’ve also got Jake Allen (http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=106592) in the AHL, but would probably prefer to give him a whole season down there rather than calling him up.
Posted by Bower Power on 08/22/11 at 12:48 PM ET