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Worst 20 Adjusted +/- Ratings

A couple days ago I posted the top 20 players ranked by adjusted +/- rating.  Today i will look at the flip side of the stat by posting the 20 worst players last season.

Adjusted +/- by this method compares all players +/- ratings to a team baseline.  I have only considered players who played 50 games with only one team last season to ensure the integrity of these rankings.

Here are the results:

2011/12 Worst 20 Adjusted +/- Ratings
Adj +/- 
1Cam FowlerAna


2Milan JurcinaNYI


3Brett ClarkTB


4Nino NiederreiterNYI


4Shawn ThorntonBos


6Shawn HorcoffEdm


6Manny MalhotraVan


8Nate ThompsonTB


9Mark StreitNYI


9Mike WeberBuf


9Daniel PailleBos


9David KrejciBos


9Tomas HolmstromDet


14Radek DvorakDal


15Andrew BrunetteChi


16Tim JackmanCal


16Jay BouwmeesterCal


18Nick LeddyChi


19Derek MorrisPhx


20Marty ReasonerNYI


20Alexei EmelinMon


20Gregory CampbellBos


This list contains 22 players due to a three-way tie at 20th place.  It consists of players who failed in the role they played last season.

Cam Fowler has the worst adjusted +/-.  He is a young player that many people expect big things from and some feel he is already a star but he continually struggles in puck possession stats.  He is showing he is not ready for his current role in Anaheim and fans have overrated his performance so far.  Milan Jurcina is next on the list.

Generally the players on this list are not NHL stars.  Some have had some success in the past - for example Shawn Horcoff and David Krejci - but last season was not a strong one for them. 

This statistic does not take quality of teammates or competition into account, so some players struggled because they played tough roles on their teams and may not be as poor as this one number would suggest.  It also can be heavily influenced by shooting percentages when a player is on the ice.  An individual player has little influence on shooting percentages of players while they are on the ice but high opponent shooting percentages and low teammate shooting percentages can significantly lower a +/- rating.

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When I looked at a few of these players, this blew my mind: The Islanders scored on just .084 percent of their 5-on-5 shots when Nino Niederreiter was on the ice. In 534:18 (the equivalent of almost 9 full games) and firing 238 shots on net (a below-average but close to normal rate of 26.7 per 60 minutes), the Islanders scored just twice.

Niederreiter and Eric Boulton (who amazingly was never on the ice for a single goal for for in 51 games played) were major outliers this year. The next worst in the NHL among players who played at least 50 games was Niederreiter’s teammate (and frequent linemate) Jay Pandolfo, who had an on-ice shooting percentage of 2.40. Only 12 qualified players in the entire league (out of 514) were worse than 4 percent, and only 29 worse than 5 percent.

Since the beginning of the Behind the Net Era, the only other player besides Niederreiter and Boulton to finish with an on-ice shooting percentage worse than 2 percent was Raitis Ivanans, at 1.12 in 2010.

Niederreiter definitely struggled in his first full season of play, but man—that is some flabbergastingly bad luck.

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 06/21/12 at 09:57 PM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

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