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Weber’s Offer Sheet

Shea Weber has been runner up to the Norris Trophy for the last two years in a row.  He is the best player who is a free agent this summer.  As a restricted free agent it isn’t clear that he will move to a new team but the Philadelphia Flyers are taking their best shot.  They signed Weber to a fourteen year offer sheet worth $110 million.  He is paid $14 million a year in each of the first four seasons.  That will make him the highest paid player in the league for now.  All of these numbers assume that nothing changes under the new CBA.  There are attempts by Weber’s camp to keep this offer sheet from being changeable by the new CBA agreement by making much of the money guaranteed bonus money. 

Nashville would get back four first round draft picks if they let Weber go but this is unlikely to produce a player of Weber’s ability.  Failing to match the offer would significantly hurt the Predators defence who already lost Ryan Suter to free agency this summer.

Philadelphia is in need of a top defenceman with Chris Pronger likely on the long term injured list for the rest of his career, Matt Carle signed as a free agent in Tampa Bay and Kimmo Timonen now 37 years old.  This is their best play to get that defenceman.

Nashville has a week to match the deal.  I expect they probably will.  If they do not they will have clearly declared themselves to being a small market that is producing talent for the bigger markets and has little chance of winning longterm.  This transition has been aided by the liberalized free agency brought in by the current expiring CBA.  The Philadelphia’s of the world are making some of the bigger money free agent signings each summer and the Nashville’s of the world are struggling to hold onto as many of their talented players as possible.

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Comments

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I believe that if the cap hit on Weber’s offer is $7.8 million (which is what I’ve seen reported today), the compensation would actually be 2 first round picks, one second round pick, and one third round pick.  The cap hit would’ve had to be greater than $8.41 million to receive four first round picks.

Unless I’m wrong and the cap hit is higher because the last year would be after he turns 40.  But I thought the years were designed to keep his cap hit under the threshold for maximum RFA compensation.

Posted by HitokiriEric from Ann Arbor, MI on 07/19/12 at 04:03 PM ET

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1) The Flyers did Weber and Nashville a favour.  He’s now a Preditor for life.  Poille being an astute GM is probably first confering with the league if the contract is legal under the terms of the CBA. 
2) Regardless of what they say, Nashville will retain Weber.  They have no other choice regardless of the upfront costs.  In the long run its about the same $$ as Suter got and Weber is the better, more irreplaceable player

Posted by Fauxrumors on 07/19/12 at 04:14 PM ET

J.J. from Kansas's avatar

Posted by HitokiriEric from Ann Arbor, MI on 07/19/12 at 03:03 PM ET

Cap hit for RFA compensation runs differently.  If a deal is longer than 5 years, they only count the first 5 years when figuring up the compensation given to the other team.

Essentially, any deal over $42M will guarantee that the compensation is four first-round picks.

Posted by J.J. from Kansas on 07/19/12 at 04:19 PM ET

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J.J.-

I just saw your comment in another thread and came back here to correct myself for that.  Thanks for the update there.

Posted by HitokiriEric from Ann Arbor, MI on 07/19/12 at 04:21 PM ET

Luongo-is-my-hero's avatar

i highly doubt the preds match the offer.  Its so heavily front loaded they can’t afford it. 68 million over the first 5 years is ridiculous.  do you really think the preds are going to be paying him 13.6 million per year for the next 5 years, 13 million of which is up front at beginning of each year, not spread out over the season.

Posted by Luongo-is-my-hero on 07/19/12 at 04:36 PM ET

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1) It’ll be a tough pill to swallow, but the Preds HAVE to match this.  Over the long term its not much more than what Suter got and Weber is the better, more irreplaceable player
2) I don’t care if its 4 first rounders(or less as some have stated) but Philly’s top pick isn’t likely to be much better than a 20-30th pick. You’re not likely to find an elite player there

Posted by Fauxrumors on 07/19/12 at 05:07 PM ET

Keyser S.'s avatar

Posted by Luongo-is-my-hero on 07/19/12 at 03:36 PM ET

Was thinking the same thing. This may have been a brilliant idea out of philly.

Even if they do match, you got to be thinking they’ll shed as much salary as possible.

Posted by Keyser S. on 07/19/12 at 05:58 PM ET

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Even if they do match, you got to be thinking they’ll shed as much salary as possible.

Right now they’re nearly 14 million under the floor and Poile had been adamant that the Preds are willing to spend to the cap, so they’d still have a ways to go to even get to the cap floor if they match.

Posted by Garth on 07/19/12 at 08:06 PM ET

Luongo-is-my-hero's avatar

did they really say they would spend to the cap? It was my assumption that they would spend competitively, but not to the max.  Paying weber that amount, would be one thing, but paying him the bonuses all up front like that would criple the preds financially.

Posted by Luongo-is-my-hero on 07/20/12 at 06:05 AM ET

Faux Rumors's avatar

all up front like that would criple the preds financially

.

Why do you say that? Has there been any recent credible reports that say the Predators are in financial trouble akin to whats happening in Jersey, or Phoenix?

Posted by Faux Rumors from Globally- Here, there, Everywhere on 07/20/12 at 09:54 AM ET

Luongo-is-my-hero's avatar

I say that because the preds for all their guts and glory do not make a heck of a lot of money when compared to bigger hockey markets such as the flyers, leafs, ny etc. That’s why they have always been more of a middle of the pack spender when it comes to spending to the cap.  28 million in basically the first year and 1 month, is a lot of money for ownership to come up with for one player.  They won’t be able to traded him for the first year, and he obviously does not want to be there, so they will look to trade him next year for a much better return.  However, they basically have to pay the bonuses for the year right away, so would have to pony up 28 million for basically one season. as opposed to the 7-8 they were hoping to pay him spread out over 1 season.

Posted by Luongo-is-my-hero on 07/20/12 at 12:14 PM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

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