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Top 20 Team And Zone Adjusted Corsi Ratings

Today I continue my sabermetrics and hockey posts by listing the top 20 players by team and zone adjusted Corsi ratings.  This is the last relatively easy correction that can be done.  We take the team adjusted Corsi ratings and adjust them for zone starts.  Each excess offensive zone start costs 0.8 Corsi events.  It is easier to take a shot when you start in the offensive zone than the defensive zone.  The team zone starts are also accounted for so as to not be double counted in the team adjustment.  This group of players can be described as the group of players who most lead puck possession when much of the circumstance of their play is adjusted away. 

Here are the top 20 players by team and zone adjusted Corsi ratings in 2011/12:

2011/12 Top 20 Team And Zone Adjusted Corsi Ratings
Rank  
Player   
Team   
Corsi 
1Zdeno CharaBos

+345.52

2Patrice BergeronBos

+320.32

3Joe ThorntonSJ

+255.04

4Anze KopitarLA

+244.76

5Ryan GetzlafAna

+238.60

6Corey PerryAna

+239.40

7Justin WilliamsLA

+239.36

8Dan HamhuisVan

+225.56

9Alex GoligoskiDal

+225.04

10Brad MarchandBos

+224.72

11Tyler SeguinBos

+223.32

12Brian BoyleNYR

+222.40

13Joe PavelskiSJ

+218.24

14David BackesStL

+210.20

15Ryan KeslerVan

+194.16

16Ryan O’ReillyCol

+191.12

17Kevin BieksaVan

+188.36

18Fedor TyutinCBJ

+181.04

19Alex PietrangeloStL

+180.00

20Erik KarlssonOtt

+179.68



This list of players is limited to players who played 50 or more games in 2011/12 so that the team adjustment is more valid. 

Zdeno Chara repeats his lead of the field.  It is a shame that he has not won a Norris Trophy in the last two years with the great puck possession numbers he has posted. 

Patrice Bergeron, his teammate follows.  We see several defensive forwards on this list including David Backes who was runner up to Bergeron for the Selke on this list. 

Some players on this list are thought to have had poorer years that was hoped in Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler.  Their puck possession numbers show otherwise, though their offensive numbers dipped.

This is a list of players who were puck possession leaders in 2011/12.  They were valuable to their team and in many cases underrated as well.

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Comments

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One major reason I tend to view team-adjusted Corsi with some skepticism is because I don’t think that, say, the play of the Anaheim Ducks with Getzlaf and Perry on the ice is necessarily related to the play of the Anaheim Ducks with Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu on the ice. Those pairings basically never intermingled at even strength throughout the entire course of the season, but the success or failure of one pair has the inverse effect on the other pair as far as team-adjusted Corsi is concerned. That seems to fail the common sense test.

If, for example, Selanne and Koivu were both injured all year and the Ducks were forced to fill the gaps in the roster internally, Anaheim’s overall Corsi would likely suffer. But Getzlaf and Ryan’s Corsis would not necessarily be affected to nearly the same extent—they likely play about the same minutes, with the same linemates, against the same opposition, pretty much regardless of who’s on the other three lines.

A deep team where players on the top lines regularly intermingle will negatively affect team-adjusted Corsi for that team’s best players. On the flipside, a top-heavy team with a few very good players at the top and a bottom six with several fringe NHLers will make those top players look much better than they are with a team adjustment, because they are likely still playing with good linemates but being compared against well below average non-linemates.

As far as I can tell, the only significant way non-linemates can meaningfully affect your Corsi is by affecting your zone starts, which is why I tend to prefer a simple zone-start adjustment without the so-called “team adjustment.”

Posted by Sven22 from Grand Rapids on 08/05/12 at 12:16 AM ET

PuckStopsHere's avatar

There is some truth to that.  I have not properly accounted for quality of of teammates or opposition.  One might be skeptical of the fact that four Boston Bruins appear here when they were to some degree linemates.  One might b e skeptical that Matt Cullen appears here as his team (Minnesota) was so bad in terms of puck possession that a player who broke even in Cullen winds up in the top 20.  That said this is a quite meaningful ranking of players in terms of puck possession.  These players are some of the best in the league.

As for your Anaheim example, an injury to Koivu and Selanne assuming their replacements are not as good would improve the ranking of Perry and Getzlaf as their team would have a worse baseline.  Indirectly they would probably see tougher opposition as the team is much more clearly a one line team, so this would be a correction in the correct direction, but no it doesn’t fully address the situation.  Of course this assumes that Anaheim would keep Perry and Getzlaf together in those circumstances, which isn’t entirely obvious.

Posted by PuckStopsHere on 08/05/12 at 12:47 AM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

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