by PuckStopsHere on 07/15/12 at 03:31 PM ET
As I continue my sabermetrics and hockey posts I am looking at team Corsi ratings. This is the difference between shots directed at goal for and against in five on five situations. This is a strong indicator of puck possession for the team in question. It is a repeatable part of the success of any given team. It is not the only part of their success. Clearly goaltending, special teams and the quality of the scoring chances is not taken into account here. Nevertheless if a team has a ranking that is significantly different from their ranking in the NHL standings, unless there is a clear reason (such as goaltending) to explain it, it is quite likely that they will have a change in fortunes next season.
This is also a useful value because it is needed to make team adjustments on individual players.
Here are the 30 teams ranked by their team Corsi’s in 2011/12:
|1||Detroit Red Wings|
|3||Los Angeles Kings|
|8||San Jose Sharks|
|9||St Louis Blues|
|13||New Jersey Devils|
|18||Toronto Maple Leafs|
|24||Columbus Blue Jackets|
|25||New York Rangers|
|26||New York Islanders|
|29||Tampa Bay Lightning|
Three teams are at the top of the league with very similar rankings. They are the Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings. This number shows us that Los Angeles’s Stanley Cup victory was not a complete surprise. They were a better team in the regular season than their point total suggested.
Behind them come Chicago and Boston who are both recent Stanley Cup winners.
The Presidents Trophy winning Vancouver Canucks narrowly beat out the rising Ottawa Senators for the next position.
San Jose and St Louis are next up. They are followed by Colorado, who is the top ranked team by Corsi that missed the playoffs.
Philadelphia is next in 11th place. They are followed by Winnipeg, who is the final positively ranked team.
New Jersey and Phoenix are next. They had good playoff runs but were not particularly successful in terms of puck possession in the regular season.
Dallas and Florida are next. They are followed by Buffalo and Toronto.
The Washington Capitals come next. This is a team that has done quite well in terms of puck possession in the past but struggled under Dale Hunter. I expect they bounce back both in Corsi and in the standings under Adam Oates.
Nashville is next. They have succeeded largely on the strength of goaltending and defence and not so much in terms of puck possession. It will be interesting to see how important Ryan Suter was to that success.
Montreal, Carolina and Anaheim are next. They are followed by Columbus who had horrible goaltending while finishing last in the NHL. Even with better goaltending the Blue Jackets are not a particularly good team.
The New York Rangers did quite well in the regular season despite a poor Corsi. A large part of that credit goes to the goaltending of Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist, but I think their regular season is not repeatable.
The New York Islanders, Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers are the next poor performers.
Tampa Bay is next. They had some top scorers in Steve Stamkos and Martin St Louis but awful defence kept their opponents in control of the puck most of the time
Minnesota is the league worst team by a significant margin. They added Zach Parise and Ryan Suter as free agents. Will that be enough to turn this team around?
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