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The Puck Stops Here

Team Rankings By Close Fenwick

Yesterday I wrote about using Fenwick rankings when the score is close to rank how good a team is.  I want to compare this with a simpler team Corsi ranking.  These are attempts to measure and quantify puck possession and use it to infer the ability of hockey team.  To begin this study I want to present the raw data.  Fenwick data is usually reported as a percentage of events (shots on goal and missed shots) that a team is responsible for.  Corsi is usually listed as a +/- number (Corsi events for minus those against), thus we will be more concerned with relative rankings than with raw numbers.

Here are Fenwick close score rankings for teams compare with team Corsi rankings:

Close Score Fenwick Compared With Team Corsi 2011/12
Team Fenwick Rank Close Score Fenwick Corsi Rank Team Corsi
St Louis Blues 1 55.07% 9 +264
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 55.02% 2 +644
Detroit Red Wings 3 54.39% 1 +648
Los Angeles Kings 4 53.60% 3 +636
Chicago Blackhawks 5 52.82% 5 +412
Boston Bruins 6 52.60% 4 +547
San Jose Sharks 7 52.19% 8 +313
Vancouver Canucks 8 51.44% 6 +361
Philadelphia Flyers 9 51.14% 11 +172
New Jersey Devils 10 51.08% 13 -23
Winnipeg Jets 11 51.05% 12 +59
Ottawa Senators 12 50.90% 7 +360
Florida Panthers 13 50.35% 16 -89
New York Rangers 14 49.90% 25 -334
Colorado Avalanche 15 49.77% 10 +221
Washington Capitals 16 49.71% 19 -177
Dallas Stars 17 49.51% 15 -51
New York Islanders 18 49.18% 26 -351
Phoenix Coyotes 19 49.17% 14 -28
Tampa Bay Lightning 20 48.31% 29 -391
Carolina Hurricanes 21 48.17% 22 -280
Anaheim Ducks 22 48.12% 23 -286
Buffalo Sabres 23 48.10% 17 -140
Edmonton Oilers 24 48.08% 28 -387
Columbus Blue Jackets 25 47.53% 24 -306
Calgary Flames 26 47.47% 27 -386
Montreal Canadiens 27 46.81% 21 -258
Toronto Maple Leafs 28 46.70% 18 -163
Nashville Predators 29 46.08% 20 -186
Minnesota Wild 30 44.91% 30 -802

For the most part it is clear from looking at this chart we are measuring essentially the same number.  The teams that do well by Fenwick close also do well by Team Corsi and vice versa.  There are a few teams that have some difference between their ranking in both systems.  These include the Fenwick leading St Louis Blues, the New York Rangers and Islanders, Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators.  I think most of the remaining discrepancy is essentially meaningless error from the differences between the two systems.  The difference in the rankings is minimal in these cases.  Hence we learn something by looking at the five cases I have found as being most different.

The causes for discrepancy include the frequency and style of play of teams when a score is not close.  Some teams are more competitive in games that are no longer close than others and some teams get into blow-out situations more often than others.  There is also discrepancy due to shots blocked.  Corsi includes these and Fenwick does not.  This can have an effect in teams that block a lot of shots.  I think a couple case studies in these teams with larger discrepancies between the two systems will be informative and I will do them in the future.

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

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Email: y2kfhl@hotmail.com