by PuckStopsHere on 07/14/14 at 04:40 PM ET
My next step in my summertime sabermetrics and hockey series is to look at team Corsi ratings. This is the difference between shots attempted (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) by a team and their opponent in 5 on 5 situations. It gages the puck possession ability of a team, which is one of the more reproducible aspects of play if rosters remain the same. This is not a gage of how good a team is in that special teams, goaltending and ability to create good scoring opportunities are not measured, but if a team has a Corsi very different from their finish in the regular season it is quite likely their regular season result is not repeatable.
These team Corsi ratings are used partly to rank teams and partly as team adjustments to decouple individual players from team effects and thus make Corsi more of an individual puck possession ranking.
Here are the team Corsi ratings in 2013/14:
|1||Los Angeles Kings||+630|
|4||New Jersey Devils||+382|
|5||San Jose Sharks||+361|
|6||New York Rangers||+299|
|7||St Louis Blues||+248|
|10||Tampa Bay Lightning||+135|
|12||Detroit Red Wings||+106|
|13||Columbus Blue Jackets||+70|
|18||New York Islanders||-40|
|29||Toronto Maple Leafs||-739|
Atop this list is the Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings. I would not interpret that fact as the Kings being the Stanley Cup favorites at any point. Though they may have been the best puck possession team in 2013/14, there were other aspects of the game in which they were not as strong. For example their power play was fourth worst in the league in the regular season. I will write something in the future about what can be concluded from the Kings leading the league in Corsi and also winning the Stanley Cup.
Chicago and Boston are also top teams. New Jersey is surprisingly strong. They were also a good puck possession team last year and I predicted that with the addition of Cory Schneider they would surprise the league. They didn't. So I want to look again at that prediction.
Some teams that may be surprising to be in the negatives include Anaheim, Pittsburgh and Colorado. They had strong seasons despite poorer than average puck possession - and quite a bit poorer than average in Colorado's case. I think Semyon Varlamov gets a lot of credit for Colorado's season. If he cannot repeat it look for problems in Colorado next year.
At the bottom are some of the usual suspects. Buffalo is worst in the league and also worst in team Corsi. Toronto is not far behind, despite the fact they were not too far out of a playoff berth. The Alberta duo of Edmonton and Calgary also struggled.
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