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Nino Niederreiter Is The Worst Position Player By GVT

Goals versus threshold is Tom Awad’s quick and dirty attempt to value all players with a single number.  Its biggest weakness is the fact that goaltenders are easier to evaluate than position players and as a result goalies dominate the top and bottom of any goals versus threshold rankings.  This overrates goaltenders and downgrades position players.  On the worst players by GVT list from 2011/12 18 of the 20 players are goalies.  The worst ranked position player is Nino Niederreiter of the New York Islanders who is ranked 13th overall with a -5.8 value in the goals versus threshold system.  This likely underrates his inept season.

Niederreiter played 55 games last season.  He only scored one point (a goal) in that ice time.  He was only played about 10 minutes a game and against weaker competition but he still failed.

Niederreiter is punished in the goals versus threshold system for his offensive failures.  He is also punished for poor defence.  He posted the second worst +/- rating in the NHL despite limited playing time and +/- is used as a proxy for defence in GVT. Despite failing in everything that GVT rates he was beaten by 12 goalies.  This shows how insensitive the system is to position players.  It is not possible to be much worse than Niederreiter was in this system and yet that keeps you well back of last place in the system.

Niederreiter was a 19 year old rookie who scored well in the WHL but has not been able to translate that to NHL success.  It is possible that he will develop into a legitimate NHL player in the future, but he clearly wasn’t one last year.  Last year was a wasted year in terms of his development.  It is an example of the Islanders poor player development system.

Nino Niederreiter had a poor season last year.  It is possible that he wasn’t the worst position player in the league as other players who flopped had more ice time than he did but he was definitely not a success.  His failure is hidden somewhat in the goals versus threshold system because it preferentially selects goalies.

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Comments

tuxedoTshirt's avatar

It was hard to watch.

Posted by tuxedoTshirt from the Home of the 1937 World Champions on 08/21/12 at 01:42 AM ET

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Pretty criminal that he was in the league. Everybody and their mother knew he wasn’t ready, but Snow and Wang put him in there anyway to artificially make the cap floor (based on bonuses he couldn’t possibly get). I hope that didn’t wreck his development, because he was looking like he had a pretty good future as a pro.

Posted by larry from pitt on 08/21/12 at 02:03 AM ET

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Contrary to what Mr. Larry from Pitt says, Nino did NOT remain the NHL “to artificially make the cap floor.”  The Islanders did NOT need his salary to reach the floor.

Nino was returned to juniors in his draft year.  He was a dominant, physical force.  It made no sense to send him back for yet another year in juniors, but unfortunately, as we all know, he could not be sent to the AHL. 

The reason he had such a poor showing was that he suffered a groin injury to start the season, and when he came back, he immediately got tagged in the head by Fistric and suffered a concussion.  By the time he got into the line-up it was already December/January Then he was forced to play with Marty Reasoner who had a pathetic year.

Posted by islesfan on 08/21/12 at 02:52 PM ET

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Posted by islesfan on 08/21/12 at 01:52 PM ET

Yeah, you don’t know what you’re talking about when it comes to player development. If a player’s not NHL-ready, but too young for the AHL he goes to back to juniors to dominate. He does not get put in the NHL and be allowed to fail for 10 minutes per night.

You also don’t know what you’re talking about in regards to the Islanders’ cap/spending situation. Without Neiderreiter’s 2.8 million cap hit (1.9 mil of which in largely unachievable bonuses), the Islanders would have been $2 million below the floor. Which means having Neiderreiter on the roster instead of, say, a $2 million veteran, allowed the Islanders to pay out $1 million less in salaries that the cap is supposed to demand.

He was in the NHL to save money, pure and simple.

Posted by larry from pitt on 08/21/12 at 05:04 PM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

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