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The Puck Stops Here

Los Angeles Has The Best Team Corsi

In my summer look at sabermetrics and hockey, I have recently looked at team Corsi ratings.  This is the difference between a team's attempted shots (shots on goal, blocked shots and missed shots) and those of their opponents in 5 on 5 situations.  This number is interesting because it shows team's puck possession ability.  A team that has the puck will have a positive Corsi and a team that plays without the puck will have a negative one.  The number correlates with the success of each individual team, but it is an imperfect method to rank teams because it neglects several important facets of hockey including special teams, goaltending quality and shot quality. 

The NHL's leader in the 2013 season by team Corsi is the Los Angeles Kings.  They posted a +495 team Corsi.  In a 48 game schedule, this means that they attempted more than ten extra shots than their opponents at even strength per game.  That is a significant difference in puck possession.

While doing this, the Kings managed to finish fifth in the West Conference with 59 points.  They made their way to the semi-finals before losing to the eventual champion Chicago Blackhawks.

Los Angeles was the defending Stanley Cup champions in the 2013 season.  They had a bit of a Stanley Cup hangover, which led to a slow start in the season.  This probably kept them below their expected result in the regular season.

Los Angeles had a strong Corsi last season, finishing only 12 points out of first place in the league.  Their Stanley Cup run, which was a surprise given their 2012 finish in the standings, may have been foreshadowed by their puck possession numbers.  They could not repeat their Stanley Cup success in 2013 despite even better puck possession numbers.  The biggest disconnect between their puck possession numbers and their full hockey game is that the Kings are not so good at finishing when they take a shot.  The Kings have not been a high scoring team in the last couple years.  Last year they showed a strong improvement on the 2011/12 regular season when they finished 7th in goals per game in 2013 (after a second last finish in 2011/12).  Since shooting percentages are generally very random in nature, it is reasonable to expect some regression in their goals scored next year.  Nevertheless Los Angeles remains a top team and is probably the favorite to win the new Pacific Division.  The question is whether or not this will be good enough for another Stanley Cup run.

Potentially the Kings have the talent to win the Stanley Cup, but any deep playoff run requires some luck.  There will be two factors that will influence the playoffs that most people will overlook.  The Kings will no longer have a Stanley Cup hangover.  That should be a big positive.  The Olympics will also influence things.  Some teams will have a break and other teams will have sigificant portions of their roster playing in the Olympic games.  Los Angeles will likely have Jonathan Quick playing as the starting goalie for USA. Drew Doughty will play a significant role on Canada's defence.  Anze Kopitar will be the key player on the Slovenian team.  Other players roles are less certain.  There is considerable uncertainty as to who will make the various teams and how big a role they play.  It isn't clear how Los Angeles will be affected.

Los Angeles was the top puck possession team in the 2013 season.  They were very close to being the top in the 2011/12 regular season.  In 2012 they won the Stanley Cup.  In 2013 they made the Stanley Cup semi-finals.  They will likely have a good run in the 2014 playoffs as well.  It is quite possible they could wind up the Stanley Cup winner - in a league where there is no clear front-runner. 

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Comments

Neo69's avatar

The thing you haven’t talked about (at least so far) is the impact of score on Corsi and Fenwick data.  Teams that are ahead tend to play more defensively and that allows the team that is behind to get the puck more.  From a team perspective, Chicago was relatively dominant when up a goal and LA was really dominant when down two goals.  So LA has better raw Corsi numbers that don’t equate to actual production.  Some of the stats guys have been working on score adjusted Fenwick numbers.  When looking at those, LA and Chicago had very similar numbers last season which were far and away the best of any teams.  And as that analysis progresses, I’m thinking the score adjusted numbers will be tweaked to reflect the advantages of Chicago’s season compared to LA’s.

As for Score Adjusted Fenwick over the last several years, as already mentioned, LA and Chicago led Fen Adj in the 56% range last season.  LA was all alone in the 57% range when they won the cup the previous season.  2010/11 didn’t have a dominant Fen Adj team so SJ, Chicago and Van led in the 53% range.  In 2009/10, Chicago led Fen Adj in the 56% range when they won the cup.  In 2008/09, Detroit led Fen Adj in the 56% range but lost in the SCF series.  Don’t have the number but Detroit led Fen Adj the previous season when they won the cup.  So Fen Adj has done a pretty good job of predicting playoff success the last 6 seasons.

And as for individual player’s Corsi data, zone starts obviously impact raw Corsi numbers but I believe “who you play against” impacts them more.  I’ve been looking at hockeyanalysis.com’s individual player’s opponent Corsi data.  I have been separating opponents into players with positive Corsi numbers and those with negative ones.  Then I have been looking at “how individual player’s results compare to those two groups.”

So for example, Datsyuk’s positive opponents averaged a 54.29 Corsi percentage while Bergeron’s opponents averaged 52.88%.  Then Datsyuk’s actual Corsi% against those opponents was 59.31% compared to Bergeron’s 56.10.  Basically, Datsyuk was more dominant against tougher opponents.  Bergeron was much more dominant when playing negative Corsi% players and played against them more often than Datsyuk.  So while Bergeron’s raw Corsi numbers were more dominant than Datsyuk’s, Datsyuk’s actual performance was superior; at least when playing against the best of the best.  And, I think as Corsi continues to be used, it will be necessary to put it into that kind of context.

Posted by Neo69 on 08/03/13 at 08:58 AM ET

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imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

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