by PuckStopsHere on 07/01/13 at 03:17 PM ET
With the NHL Draft completed yesterday we have a lot of interesting picks and some trades to digest. I have already written on the Cory Schneider trade, which will probably make the biggest short-term impact. It is really hard to figure out the impact of the draft picks. Nobody can reliably project the career of a hockey player when he is 18. A lot of the great prospects picked yesterday are misses. A few are hits. Some of the later round picks that nobody is talking about are probably hits as well. Historically we know that on average three players in the draft class will make the Hockey Hall of Fame. This is considered a strong draft class, so it may exceed historical averages. Nobody can reliably state which picks are winners and which are losers, though a lot are trying.
The story of the draft is how far Seth Jones fell. During the 2012/13 season, many projected him to be the first overall pick. He went fourth. Nashville may have grabbed a gem ... or maybe not and the teams ahead of them were right to pass him over. I know that I wasn't too impressed with his showing in the Memorial Cup and I was very impressed with Nathan MacKinnon. But that is only a little over a week of hockey and may not be indicative of future results.
The early shocker was Florida selecting Aleksander Barkov. He is a Russian/Finnish centreman who was projected to be picked around fourth.
One thing is clear. Anyone writing a post that says with certainty that a team made a wonderful pick or a horrible pick is full of hubris and lacking on fact. You cannot know this with any certainty. Terry Frei is a prime example of somebody who is full of false certainty and lacking in hockey facts when writing such a post. He writes that Colorado missed the boat my not selecting Seth Jones.
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