Kukla's Korner

The Puck Stops Here

Brian Elliott’s Improvement

In terms of season on season improvement nobody made a bigger step forward than Brian Elliott of the St Louis Blues.  I doubt that it is sustainable into next season but he made a huge jump that is magnified in the goals versus threshold system, as he is a goaltender.  In 2010/11 Brian Elliott was the worst in the NHL by goals versus threshold.  In 2011/12 he was fifth best.

According to the system Elliott was more than 46 goals better last season than the season before.  This is worth about 15 points in the standings.  If we believe the valuations of the system this is approximately the value of Steve Stamkos and Erik Karlsson combined.  While Elliott made a significant improvement from year to year this system magnifies it.  It is far easier to statistically evaluate goalies so the goals versus threshold system and thus their values are magnified.  Can we really believe that a largely backup goalie showed an improvement worth a Stamkos and a Karlsson?  This is a case study that clearly shows inconsistencies in the goals versus threshold system.  It is at best an approximate attempt to value players and if pushed too far can lead to ridiculousness.

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Comments

Chet's avatar

just a question about the board: preferences for which blogs you see only work if you pay, or what? they haven’t worked for me in months…

Posted by Chet from twitter: thegansen on 08/17/12 at 03:42 AM ET

Paul's avatar

Chet, no, that feature is available to any KK member.  However, some have experienced some issues with it and rather diving deep into the problem, I held off since the newest software will correct it and that software is being tested right now on KK. 

It the testing goes well, we should have some new software in about 4-5 days.

Posted by Paul from Motown Area on 08/17/12 at 08:47 AM ET

Chet's avatar

thanks for the update!

Posted by Chet from twitter: thegansen on 08/17/12 at 05:52 PM ET

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About The Puck Stops Here

imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

Why am I blogging? I want to.

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Email: y2kfhl@hotmail.com