Kukla's Korner

The Puck Stops Here

Top 20 Players By Raw Corsi

Today I return to my summertime sabermetrics and hockey series by looking at the top 20 players in 2013/14 by raw unadjusted Corsi ratings.  This is the beginnings of an individualized ranking of puck possession ability.  Corsi measures the difference between the attempted shots (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) taken in 5 on 5 situations by a given team and their opponents when a given player is on the ice.  It has been shown to correlate very well with puck possession on a team level.  When looking it as an individual ranking there are several factors which must be removed.  The most obvious is team effects.  A good team is more likely to possess the puck than a bad team.  Thus a player on a good team is more likely to have a good Corsi than a player on a bad team.  In time I will correct for those and other effects.

Here are the top 20 players in the 2013/14 season by raw, unadjusted Corsi rankings:

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Mike Modano’s Hall Of Fame Case

I am completing my Hall of Fame cases for the 2014 player inductees.  I have already written the cases for Rob Blake, Peter Forsberg and Dominik Hasek.  Today I am doing Mike Modano. 

Here was the post I wrote in 2006 when I first considered Modano to be a Hall of Famer and here was the post I wrote when he retired.

In order to make Hall of Fame cases I use the Keltner List.  This list is borrowed from baseball, but easily adapts to hockey and gets to the heart of what make a player a Hall of Famer.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.  I don't think any serious hockey person ever considered Modano to be the best player in hockey.

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Dominik Hasek’s Hall Of Fame Case

I am continuing making the Hall of Fame cases for the 2014 player inductees.  So far I have written the cases for Rob Blake and Peter Forsberg.  Today I am writing Dominik Hasek`s case and in the future I will do Mike Modano`s case.  In order to make their case, I will use the Keltner List which is borrowed from baseball.  This is a list of questions that are designed to get to the heart of what makes a player a Hall of Famer.

Here is the post I wrote when Hasek retired.  I have considered him a Hall of Famer longer than i have been blogging so I do not have a post at that point.

Here is Dominik Hasek`s Hall of Fame case:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

Hasek was definitely the best player in hockey at a time.  He won the Hart Trophy in 1997 and 1998.  It is rare that a goalie wins this award and unprecedented that he wins it in back-to-back seasons.  Hasek is one of the few goalies who can make the claim that he would have been a consensus choice as best player in hockey in NHL history.

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Peter Forsberg’s Hall Of Fame Case

I continue looking at the 2014 Hall of Fame inductions today by posting Peter Forsberg's Hall of Fame case using the Keltner List.  This is a list of questins used to get to the heart of any Hall of Fame candidates chances.  It was developed for baseball, but works well for hockey as well.  I have already done this for Rob Blake and will do this in the future for the other player nominees Dominik Hasek and Mike Modano.

Here was the post in 2006 when I first considered Peter Forsberg to be a Hall of Famer and here was his retirement post.  This is Forsberg's Hall of Fame case:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

Forsberg won the 2003 Hart Trophy.  That is a strong argument that he was considered hockey's best player at that point.  I think many people considered him the best player in the game at other points but he often suffered injury and did not play full enough seasons to win the Hart Trophy in other years.  In fact his 75 game total in 2002/03 when he won the Hart was the third highest in his entire career.  I argue that Forsberg was hockey's best player in the five year period from 2000 to 2005; although the lockout in that period reduced the games played totals of all players and likely created the circumstances when Forsberg would look good despite his injury history.

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Rob Blake’s Hall Of Fame Case

A little over a week ago the 2014 Hockey Hall of Fame inductions were announced.  Four players got the nod this year in Rob Blake, Peter Forsberg, Dominik Hasek and Mike Modano.  Over the next few days I will make their individual Hall of Fame cases using the Keltner List, which is borrowed from baseball but can be used by hockey with only minor changes.

Here was my post when I first considered Rob Blake to be a Hall of Famer (in 2006) and here was my post when he retired.  This is my attempt to make his hall of Fame case using the Keltner List:

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How Good Was The 2013 All UFA Team?

Now that we have seen the busiest of the 2014 free agent frenzy and many of the 2014 All UFA Team already have new teams, I am going to look back at the 2013 team in order to get an idea of how good it was.  If you built a team entirely out of the best free agents available last summer how good would they be and could they fit under the salary cap?

Here is a look at the 2013 All UFA Team and their successes in the 2013/14 season:

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2014 All UFA Team

Every year I make an all star team of unrestricted free agents to be.  The idea is to see how good a team one could acquire as free agents.  How much would it cost and about how good would they be?  Here is last year's all UFA team.  In the near future I will write a post trying to pick how good they would have been.

Should any player on this list sign before free agency begins tomorrow, I will replace him on the team.

Here is your 2014 All UFA Team:

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Taylor Hall As A Left Wing All Star

The top scoring left winger in the 2013/14 NHL season did not get a single first place vote for the post season All Star Team.  Taylor Hall led all the left wingers in the league with 80 points.  Granted it was a close race.  Jamie Benn and Joe Pavelski had 79 points each and Patrick Sharp had 78.  Nevertheless, Hall was a distant fourth in the all star voting

I argue that a significant reason for this is +/- ratings.  Pavelski was +23, Benn +21, Sharp +13 and Hall -15.  Of course the main reason for that is team effects.  While the three other players all made the playoffs, Hall was on the Edmonton Oilers who finished in last place in the West Conference.  +/- is a poor proxy for defence but it was used as one by many of the voters. 

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Benning Makes His Mark

The Vancouver Canucks have been the most active team making trades at the NHL Entry Draft.  They sent Ryan Kesler and a 2015 third round draft pick to Anaheim for Nick Bonino, Luca Sbisa and Anaheim's draft picks 24th and 85th overall in this year's draft.  They then traded the 85th pick to the New York Rangers for Derek Dorsett.  Next they traded Jason Garrison and Jeff Costello to the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 50th pick in the draft.  Today they have traded that 50th overall pick to Los Angeles for Linden Vey.  When all is said and done, by far the best player moved is Ryan Kesler.  The best defenceman moved is Jason Garrison.  The Canucks have not picked up a core player.  They may hope that one may develop from the players acquired but there are no promises.

Vancouver was a top contending team that went to the Stanley Cup finals in 2011.  Many of their core players are beginning to age.  They had a lost season under John Tortorella where they missed playoffs.  In the past year they have given up both of their top flight goaltenders in Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo in trades without bringing back a core player in return.  Is this a team that should be rebuilding?  How effective is a deep rebuild in today's NHL?

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Duncan Keith As A Hart Trophy Candidate

When I look over the Hart Trophy voting (which can be seen here) I see some interesting things.  Sidney Crosby ran away with the award.  I do not know how he didn't win the award unanimously but nine of the 137 voters picked someone else.  Ryan Getzlaf, Claude Giroux, Semyon Varlamov and Carey Price all received at least one first place vote.

The bggest confusion surrounding the Hart Trophy comes from a misapplication of its definition.  The Hart Trophy is given to the player most valuable to his team.  Some people interpret that as meaning the best player on a team that would otherwise be awful without him.  A hypothetical team made of one average NHL player and bunch of old ladies who cannot skate would have a clear Hart Trophy winner in that model.  The average NHL player would be the most valuable player to his team in that definition.

The best way to show the absurdity of this thinking is by analogy.  Imagine you have two boxes containing diamonds.  One box contains a $10 million diamond and several others worth $3 to $5 million.  The other box contains a $1 million diamond and some shards of glass and gravel.  Which diamond is the most valuable to its box?  It's clearly the $10 million diamond.  Its value is $10 million and that is more than any other diamond.  Do you really think the $1 million diamond is worth more?

When we look at the Hart Trophy voting we see Sindey Crosby far ahead of anyone.  The point I would most argue with is there is no defenceman who finished above Duncan Keith and Keith finished 15th in the voting mentioned on only nine ballots.

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About The Puck Stops Here

imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

Why am I blogging? I want to.

Why are you reading it? ???

Email: y2kfhl@hotmail.com

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