Yesterday I posted the worst 20 players in the 2013/14 season by adjusted +/-. Leading this list was Alexander Edler of the Vancouver Canucks. He posted a -35.4 rating. This was further from the zero point than Matt Niskanen who led the league with +30.8. That is a remarkable and rare achievement. Usually struggling players who have poor puck possession do not get enough ice time to lead the league by as big a margin as successful players who will get lost of ice time.
Edler has been a solid member of the Vancouver Canuck defence since he arrived in 2007. He made the NHL All Star Game in 2012. While that is quite an achievement, he was a weaker choice for the All Star team.
Things really fell apart in 2013/14. Edler was limited to 22 points. This was his lowest total since his rookie year. He struggled defensively. He seemed lost at times. I think he was significantly affected by a knee injury that he never fully recovered from. However this season is not representative of what should be expected from Edler. His 938 PDO was the worst in the NHL. He was very unlucky throughout the season.
In my summer look at sabermetrics and hockey, I began by looking at the top 20 players in 2013/14 by adjusted +/-. Today I am looking at the flip side, the worst 20 players. These are players who had puck possession issues in the 2013/14 season. When they were on the ice at even strength, the opposing team was more likely to score than their own. There are uncertainties in the exact rankings because of the limited number of events that go into them and that is why people have turned to Corsi to better show these effects. Nevertheless, it is clear that players on this list did not succeed in their roles in the 2013/14 season.
Here are the worst 20 players by adjusted +/- in the 2013/14 season:
A few days ago, I posted the top 20 players in 2013/14 by adjusted +/-. I then took a look a Matt Niskanen of the Pittsburgh Penguins who was the league leader. My general conclusion is that he is a solid player who was lucky to have a career year and since he is an unrestricted free agent this summer will likely be overpaid as a result. This is quite common when using adjusted +/- to measure puck possession. It is strongly influenced by the small sample size of goals scored. Players who happen to have high team shooting percentages or saves percentages while they are on the ice tend to be overrated by this method. That is the reason people tend to Corsi based rankings.
Today i want to look at another case. The second place finisher in adjusted +/- last year was rookie Ondrej Palat of the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was the second highest rookie scorer with 59 points and posted a +27.0 adjusted +/-. It was a good rookie season for a 23 year old who had not been a high draft pick and was not expected to be a serious Calder Trophy candidate. Was it a career year?
Texas Stars defeat St John's IceCaps four games to one. Texas is the Dallas Stars affiliate and St John's belongs to the Winnipeg Jets. There was some drama in this series as the final three games were all overtime wins by Texas. The Texas offence was led by Travis Morin, Mike Hedden and Branden Ranford, Derek Meech led their defence and Cristopher Nilstorp was their goalie. St John's had Andrew Gordon and Will O'Neill leading their offence, Zach Redmond was their top defenceman and Michael Hutchinson had a strong performance in their goal.
Travis Morin was the playoff top scorer and was named playoff MVP. He was also the top scorer and MVP in the regular season. That makes a very successful year for him.
I posted the top 20 players in 2013/14 by adjusted +/- and Matt Niskanen of the Pittsburgh Penguins leads the bunch. Niskanen is an interesting player. At the beginning of the 2013/14 season, I would have told you he was a solid but unspectacular defenceman. He hadn't exceeded 21 points in a season in the last four years. He was a solid part of a depth defensive pairing. The Pittsburgh Penguins certainly didn't expect him to become their defensive leader.
In 2013/14 he had the best year of his career. He scored 46 points and was a +33. He led the Penguins defence in ice time over the season. Now that he is an unrestricted free agent, the question is what should we expect into the future? Was this a fluke year or is it repeatable?
One big hint is his 1031 PDO. This places Niskanen in the top 30 in the NHL. Since a PDO largely measures luck (it is shooting percentage plus saves percentage when a player in on the ice), a high value indicates that a player was lucky to do as well as he did and that luck likely won't last. Usually adjusted +/- leaders have league leading PDO values - which is one reason that Corsi is more valuable to rate puck possession.
Today I will begin my summertime series on sabermetrics and hockey. I will begin by looking at adjusted +/- ratings. This is a rough method to try to gage puck possession relative to one's teammates. It is not as exact as Corsi (which I will discuss later) to gage puck possession because it has a far smaller sample size. It can be significantly affected by shooting percentages and saves percentages when a player is on the ice. It is not a measure of the same thing as Corsi but it does give a good measure of players who succeeded in the role that they played with their team.
Here are the top 20 players last season by adjusted +/- rating:
The Los Angeles Kings have won the Stanley Cup. Since it is their second cup in three years some people have already begun suggesting this Kings team is a dynasty. It shows how much we have accepted the fact that there are no elite teams. A team wins two cups - not in back to back years - both times without having a good enough regular season for home ice advantage in the first round and they are a dynasty. Los Angeles fans are happy. Most of the rest of the NHL's fans probably haven't noticed yet.
Justin Williams wins the Conn Smythe Trophy. I would have picked Anze Kopitar. It will be interesting what this does for Williams's profile. He is usually seen as a more supporting player on the Kings and not one of their biggest stars. He has had very good puck possession numbers over the last few years. He is sometimes seen as an example that Corsi doesn`t work. How can a player like Williams have such a high Corsi? Now that he is playoff MVP, there will have to be some other whipping boy for that failing argument.
On June 23rd the new class of inductees will be announced for the Hockey Hall of Fame. There are several candidates worthy of induction that have been overlooked in the past few years including Sergei Makorov, Eric Lindros, Rob Blake and others. I think they will remain overlooked by the Hall. There are four first time candidates who are worthy of induction and that is more likely how the Hall will chose to go. First year candidates are Dominik Hasek, Peter Forsberg, Mike Modano and Mark Recchi and I think that more than likely be the Hall of Fame class of 2014. If any of these players are overlooked Recchi is the most likely candidate. I think the strong 2014 first time group means that longtime Hall of Fame candidates won't be inducted this year.
The season isn't over yet. The New York Rangers won game four. The Los Angeles Kings should have won this game. It's fitting that they won a game they should have lost since they lost games one and two that they should have won. It is probably going to end as they return to Los Angeles. Winning on home ice is better for the fans anyway.
In my game three comments, I pointed out that the lack of elite teams in the NHL did not prevent a one-sided Stanley Cup final. It is true that in a league where nobody is elite there is a better chance that a series is close. I argue that isn't a good thing. A close game isn't necessarily a good hockey game. A close series isn't necessarily a good series. When great teams play you get great series. When no great teams exist you may get a close series but it isn't a great series. Essentially what you can get instead is a long dramatic drawn out coin toss to decide the game. Who wants that (aside from gamblers)?
On Friday the Pittsburgh Penguins announced that Jim Rutherford would be their next general manager. He takes over from recently fired Ray Shero. Shero was a very good GM who was jettisoned because Pittsburgh lost in the playoffs. The problem was Penguins ownership had no idea what to do next and that is clear from the Rutherford hiring.
Jim Rutherford is a 65 year old who was the Hartford Whaler/ Carolina Hurricane GM from 1994 until earlier this year when he stepped aside to let Ron Francis take over. At that point it was presumed he was retiring. The highlight of his run as GM was winning the 2006 Stanley Cup. That success was the exception rather than the rule under Rutherford. In twenty years the team's record was 571 wins, 698 losses and 20 ties. He had 167 regulation tie points over that time. That record is well below .500. A Rutherford team was usually a losing team. They never were the worst team in the league and sometimes were above average but it is not a spectacular record. Rutherford appears to be a competent NHL GM but well below the best in the game. As he went into retirement it looked like there would be no desire for another team to give him a run.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
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