Today I will begin my summertime series on sabermetrics and hockey. I will begin by looking at adjusted +/- ratings. This is a rough method to try to gage puck possession relative to one's teammates. It is not as exact as Corsi (which I will discuss later) to gage puck possession because it has a far smaller sample size. It can be significantly affected by shooting percentages and saves percentages when a player is on the ice. It is not a measure of the same thing as Corsi but it does give a good measure of players who succeeded in the role that they played with their team.
Here are the top 20 players last season by adjusted +/- rating:
The Los Angeles Kings have won the Stanley Cup. Since it is their second cup in three years some people have already begun suggesting this Kings team is a dynasty. It shows how much we have accepted the fact that there are no elite teams. A team wins two cups - not in back to back years - both times without having a good enough regular season for home ice advantage in the first round and they are a dynasty. Los Angeles fans are happy. Most of the rest of the NHL's fans probably haven't noticed yet.
Justin Williams wins the Conn Smythe Trophy. I would have picked Anze Kopitar. It will be interesting what this does for Williams's profile. He is usually seen as a more supporting player on the Kings and not one of their biggest stars. He has had very good puck possession numbers over the last few years. He is sometimes seen as an example that Corsi doesn`t work. How can a player like Williams have such a high Corsi? Now that he is playoff MVP, there will have to be some other whipping boy for that failing argument.
On June 23rd the new class of inductees will be announced for the Hockey Hall of Fame. There are several candidates worthy of induction that have been overlooked in the past few years including Sergei Makorov, Eric Lindros, Rob Blake and others. I think they will remain overlooked by the Hall. There are four first time candidates who are worthy of induction and that is more likely how the Hall will chose to go. First year candidates are Dominik Hasek, Peter Forsberg, Mike Modano and Mark Recchi and I think that more than likely be the Hall of Fame class of 2014. If any of these players are overlooked Recchi is the most likely candidate. I think the strong 2014 first time group means that longtime Hall of Fame candidates won't be inducted this year.
The season isn't over yet. The New York Rangers won game four. The Los Angeles Kings should have won this game. It's fitting that they won a game they should have lost since they lost games one and two that they should have won. It is probably going to end as they return to Los Angeles. Winning on home ice is better for the fans anyway.
In my game three comments, I pointed out that the lack of elite teams in the NHL did not prevent a one-sided Stanley Cup final. It is true that in a league where nobody is elite there is a better chance that a series is close. I argue that isn't a good thing. A close game isn't necessarily a good hockey game. A close series isn't necessarily a good series. When great teams play you get great series. When no great teams exist you may get a close series but it isn't a great series. Essentially what you can get instead is a long dramatic drawn out coin toss to decide the game. Who wants that (aside from gamblers)?
On Friday the Pittsburgh Penguins announced that Jim Rutherford would be their next general manager. He takes over from recently fired Ray Shero. Shero was a very good GM who was jettisoned because Pittsburgh lost in the playoffs. The problem was Penguins ownership had no idea what to do next and that is clear from the Rutherford hiring.
Jim Rutherford is a 65 year old who was the Hartford Whaler/ Carolina Hurricane GM from 1994 until earlier this year when he stepped aside to let Ron Francis take over. At that point it was presumed he was retiring. The highlight of his run as GM was winning the 2006 Stanley Cup. That success was the exception rather than the rule under Rutherford. In twenty years the team's record was 571 wins, 698 losses and 20 ties. He had 167 regulation tie points over that time. That record is well below .500. A Rutherford team was usually a losing team. They never were the worst team in the league and sometimes were above average but it is not a spectacular record. Rutherford appears to be a competent NHL GM but well below the best in the game. As he went into retirement it looked like there would be no desire for another team to give him a run.
The Los Angeles Kings won 3-0 today. It was the first game where the Kings were the better team in the Stanley Cup finals. We are now looking at a situation where it looks like we will have a short one-sided Stanley Cup final.
I know that I am a pariah for stating that there are no elite teams in the NHL this year and there haven't been any for many years. This is by the NHL's design and it comes at a real cost to the hockey fan. Hockey fans want to defend their game against such attacks whether they are true or false. One common attack is that we don't want one-sided Stanley Cup finals where an elite team dominates a weaker team. At least in the no elite team NHL there will be close playoff series. This supposes that all we want from hockey games is for them to be long dramatic three hour coin tosses. No team is better than the other. Anyone can win. It all comes down to which team is luckiest that day. That isn't something I want. I don't want 30 equal mediocre teams. I want elite teams that will play elite games. The fallacy that one elite team means that there cannot be any team to challenge them is easily shown to be false. Through much of the 90's and early 2000s there were at least two elite teams in the NHL that would face one another in exciting well played Stanley Cup finals. It is a shame we cannot have that anymore. That doesn't mean we don't get one-sided Stanley Cup finals. We have one now in 2014 without any elite teams. The entire attack laid out here is a big logical fallacy. The NHL is better with elite teams.
A couple weeks ago the Washington Capitals named Brian MacLellan as their new GM and I have not yet commented on that move, so i want to do so today. MacLellan takes over from the former Caps GM in George McPhee. MacLellan has been working in the Washington Capitals organization for fourteen years. He joined the team in 2000 as a pro scout and eventually took over their scouting staff and became their assistant GM. He isn't a new start for the Capitals. They fired their GM and replaced him with the number two guy.
Worse the Caps picked MacLellan's coach in Barry Trotz and announced both hirings at the same time. Trotz is a good coach but it sends the wrong message. A general manager should pick the coach. In this case ownership named the coach. A top flight experienced general manager would not allow this. He would demand his own coach. These moves seem to show that Ted Leonsis is effectively the new GM. Leonsis will make the important moves. MacLellan goes from being George McPhee's assistant to Leonsis's assistant. It is a step up the ladder but he really isn't in charge.
The second game went to a second overtime period before Dustin Brown ended it. Lengthy overtime games can be exciting and memorable. This series has had that going for it. The problem is it hasn't had the great teams that should be in a Stanley Cup final. There isn't anything memorable or elite about the New York Rangers or the Los Angeles Kings. Neither was able to finish higher than sixth seed in their conference. Neither is a team that anyone would have seriously picked as the best in the NHL at any pint this season. Essentially we have the main event on the season without main event participants. That takes away from the prestige of the series. It takes elite teams to create the drama and expectation to make a truly memorable series.
After two games it looks like Los Angeles has a good shot at winning the Stanley Cup. That probably shouldn't be a surprise. The West Conference has been stronger than the East Conference for several years. The West Conference team in this series was the stronger team in the regular season. One problem is that New York has been the better team despite not winning. Los Angeles hasn't held the lead at any point during any game and they are up 2 games to none. I guess it is a fitting result in the no elite team NHL if the Stanley Cup champion is neither the best team in the regular season or the Stanley Cup finals.
Yesterday the Hall of Fame media honorees were announced. Winning the Elmer Ferguson Memorial Award for hockey journalism was Kevin Allen and winning the Forster Hewitt Memorial Award for broadcasting was Pat Foley. Both are deserving honorees.
Kevin Allen first broke in with the Port Huron (Michigan) Times Herald and in 1986 became the USA Today hockey reporter. He is one of the most well-connected reporters in hockey today. In December he won the Lester Patrick award for outstanding service to hockey in the US.
Pat Foley broke in calling games for the Grand Rapids Owls of the IHL. In 1981, he became the voice of the Chicago Blackhawks. He has held that position ever since, except for a two year period from 2006-2008 when the Hawks let him go and he worked for the AHL Chicago Wolves. When he was brought back, this was acknowledged as a mistake by the penny-pinching Bill Wirtz Blackhawks. He also called games on Fox during the NHL's run on that station from 1995 to 1998.
Congratulations to both deserving Hall of Fame additions.
It took a while for them to get going, but the Los Angeles Kings were the better team and they won the game. It was an exciting ending in that it required overtime. The problem is when I look at a playoff series between the New York Rangers and the LA Kings, I cannot convince myself this is a great series. There were better series played in the earlier rounds of the playoffs. This is an inevitable problem in the no elite team NHL. If last night's game was a regular season game in January it would be a pretty good one, but when it has the expectations that come with being the first game of the Stanley Cup finals it falls short. The Stanley Cup finals should be something special. This year it's merely a match-up of number six seeds.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
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