When I summarized the trade deadline, I picked the Atlanta Thrashers as the team that had the biggest short-term drop as a result of their deadline deals. Trading away Ilya Kovalchuk, the best player in team history, and not getting any player of Kovalchuk`s level in return is bound to hurt the Thrashers for the remainder of the season.
Thrasher fans were quick to criticize my pick because the Thrashers had gone 4-3 (with two regulation ties) in their first seven games without Kovalchuk. Despite the problems of the small sample size (making the handful of game results not statistically significant), this series of games was supposed to show that Atlanta was better (or at least no worse) for having given up Ilya Kovlachuk. Their luck without Kovalchuk has not held up. Atlanta is not 4-8 (with their two regulation ties) after the trade.
The probable AHL MVP played his first game of the NHL season last night. Jonathan Bernier of the Manchester Monarchs played with the Los Angeles Kings. He was the winning goaltending in Los Angeles’s 2-1 victory over Dallas. Bernier made 29 saves on thirty shots.
Bernier is the AHL leader in saves percentage with .937. This is a significant lead over the rest of the league (as Mike McKenna of the Lowell Devils is second at .929). Bernier has been the second most heavily played goaltender in the AHL. He has 50 games played (behind Alex Stalock of the Worcester Sharks who has 52).
I picked Mike Fisher as the Selke Trophy leader in early January. While he remains a candidate, I do not think he is the top one in the league. I think he has been passed by Patrick Marleau of the San Jose Sharks. Marleau has more shorthanded ice time, he plays against a higher quality of competition and he has a better rate stat adjusted +/-. That makes Marleau a better candidate statistically. By watching their teams play, it is clear that both are significant defensive presences for their teams, but Marleau plays a bigger role in San Jose.
Of course, this argument does not address any other defensive forwards. There are many who will get some consideration for the Selke. It is quite likely that half a dozen or more players get first place votes from at least one voter in the Selke balloting. Though some of these might be poor choices, this comes from the vague nature of defensive statistics in hockey. You cannot reliably assess the best defensive forward in most cases. Patrick Marleau is clearly a top defensive forward who is playing a big role on a successful team. He is a very good candidate for the Selke. I think his biggest problem is geography. The award has existed since 1977 and no player west of the Central time zone has ever won it. I think too many eastern voters went to sleep before the west coast games ended and missed out on some Selke candidates (this was easier to do because of the lack of strong statistics). I think there is a very good chance that Marleau could get lost in the same shuffle, but he deserves better. He should be the Selke front-runner.
The major topic of discussion at the recent NHL general managers meeting was hits to the head. After several presentations and proposals, it was decided that headshots are a problem in the league. The following words were unanimously approved by the group:
A lateral, back pressure or blindside hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and or the principal point of contact is not permitted. A violation of the above will result in a minor or major penalty and shall be reviewed for possible supplemental discipline.
That two line statement is the most reported achievement of a three day meeting. It seems a little underwhelming. This two line statement must get approval from the NHL Board of Governors and from the NHL Competition Committee before it becomes law in the league. At best this could happen by the beginning of next season.
When one thinks about Martin Brodeur`s play recently, probably their first thought is of Brodeur losing the job as Team Canada`s number one goalie in the Olympics to Roberto Luongo. Aside from that Olympic result, Brodeur has not looked very good in his NHL play either. Since February 1st, Brodeur has a .873 saves percentage and a 3.21 GAA. He has three wins and six losses (with one not in regulation) in that period. Those are not the numbers of a number one goalie. Those are the numbers of a struggling goalie.
These struggles have affected his New Jersey Devils team. In the time period since February 1st, the team is 3-6-1 for seven points. They had one loss in a game that Brodeur did not take part in. The only team to earn fewer points in that time period is the New York Islanders (who have had six points),
One under-reported theme that existed in several of the trade deadline deals is that teams are afraid of salary arbitration. In the current climate of a stagnant salary cap, you might not be able to afford a player who goes to salary arbitration and wins big. Teams may be forced to walk away from some of the salary arbitration offers.
This partially explains the trading of Denis Grebeshkov, Ian White and Wojtech Wolski. All are eligible for salary arbitration and all could receive relatively large salaries in the process.
Denis Grebeshkov was traded from the Edmonton Oilers to the Nashville Predators for a second round draft pick. He is going to be a restricted free agent this summer and is coming off of a 39 point season on the Oilers defence. This has him earning $3.15 million this year. Although his offensive totals have been down this year, there is fear that an arbitration win could increase his salary and that is a significant reason in why Edmonton chose to move him.
The NHL season has been rather disjointed since February because of the Olympic break. Nevertheless there have been a reasonable number of games played since February 1st to look at which players have been hot lately. Some teams have played as many as twelve games in that period. The top scorer in that time period is Steve Stamkos. Stamkos has eleven goals and nine assists for twenty points in ten games played to lead the league. He is one point up on linemate Martin St Louis and four points up on any other player.
This Tampa Bay twosome has played very well, with Stamkos being the better of the two. Unfortunately, their team has not capitalized on their success, as Tampa has been 5-5 in that period. Tampa has had defensive problems. They have allowed 34 goals (which is second highest in the league since Feb 1st - behind Edmonton`s 37 goals allowed in 12 games played).
In early January, I picked Tyler Myers of the Buffalo Sabres as the Calder trophy leader. He has not kept up that pace. In fact in his last ten games, Myers has only one point and -6 +/- rating. Those are not Calder Trophy numbers. Hence it is time to pick a new leader.
The leader at this point is Detroit Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard. He is the clear Detroit number one goalie (due in part to Chris Osgood’s failures). Howard has a .925 saves percentage, which is good enough for fifth in the NHL and a 2.33 goals against average (8th in the league). Among the NHL’s successful rookie goalies this year (Howard, Tuukka Rask and Antti Niemi) Howard has been the only one who has played the majority of his team’s games.
The optics regarding the NHL’s ownership of the Phoenix Coyotes continue to look poorly. It looks bad that a team run on league welfare is one of the biggest buyers at trade deadline time. It looks even worse when the NHL sues the outgoing owner of the team.
Jerry Moyes lost a significant amount of money as Phoenix Coyotes owner. He was unable or unwilling to finance a money losing team due to financial problems from his trucking business which is the primary source of his wealth.
The Phoenix Coyotes are under NHL control and have been for all of this season. A potential sale was announced in December to Ice Edge Holdings an underfunded group who wants to play some of the Coyotes home games in Saskatoon. The fact that there have been no significant further announcements about this sale, while other sales such as Tampa Bay proceeded quickly shows that there are problems with this potential sale and that there may be no end in sight to the NHL’s ownership of the Coyotes.
Meanwhile, Phoenix is in fourth seed in the West Conference with a 38-27 record (with five regulation tie points). A team in that position might be willing to buy players to make a potential playoff run at trade deadline time. The problem is that the rest of the NHL is paying the Phoenix Coyotes payroll. The rest of the NHL is paying for Phoenix to bulk up their team to try to defeat them.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging? I want to.
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