Kukla's Korner

The Puck Stops Here

Calgary’s Salary Cap Management

One story that has not been adequately reported is the fact that the Calgary Flames, a team in a tight race for the Northwest Division, has been playing games with less than a full roster.  The problem is that they have so little salary cap room that they have not been able to afford to dress a full lineup.  Three defencemen, Robyn Regehr, Adrian Aucoin and Cory Sarich all suffered injuries, but none are serious enough to go on the long-term disabled list (especially given the fact this would keep them out of the beginning games of the Stanley Cup playoffs).  The Calgary Flames have played their last three games with less than a full roster.  They played last Friday’s game against Minnesota with only 16 skaters (instead of 18) and predictably lost 4-0.  They played Monday and Tuesday’s games, against Los Angeles and Vancouver respectively, with 17 skaters.  Amazingly they defeated Los Angeles 4-1, but lost to Vancouver also by a 4-1 score.

Dustin Boyd currently in the minors for salary cap reasons.  Boyd has been a solid forward for the Flames with 22 points so far this season.  He is somebody who can be sent to the minors without worrying about waivers, so he is their salary cap sacrifice.  He is the final player the Flames would like to have in their line-up to dress a full roster.

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Montreal:  Dead Playoff Team

Every year it seems one team makes that playoffs but is the weak first round opponent that everyone would like to face.  Last year, that team was the Ottawa Senators.  Given their slump over the last half of the year, it was no surprise when Pittsburgh beat them 4-0 in the first round.  This year the team that best fits that role is the Montreal Canadiens.  Since the beginning of 2009, the Canadiens have a 20—24 record (with four regulation tie points).  That is 22nd overall in the league in that time period.  It is the second worst among presumptive playoff teams (the New York Rangers have actually been worse). 

The Montreal Canadiens problems are made worse by recent defensive injuries.  This season’s team MVP Andrei Markov is expected to miss three weeks with a knee problem and Mathieu Schneider is out for the season with shoulder surgery.  This is a big blow to the Montreal defence.  Likely, by the time Markov is ready to play again, Montreal will have been eliminated from the playoffs.

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Bruins Ready For A Playoff Run

One of the surprises this season has been the success of the Boston Bruins.  Last season they finished eighth in the East Conference taking the last playoff spot.  Most predictions had them finishing in the same territory this season.

Very early in the season in became clear that they would exceed expectation.  Tim Thomas is having a Vezina quality season in goal.  That was unexpected.  While Zdeno Chara was expected to have a good season on defence, the development of Dennis Wideman was not expected.  At forward, Marc Savard has continued to become a well-rounded player (his defence is much improved) and young players like David Krejci, Phil Kessel,, Blake Wheeler and Milan Lucic all took big steps forward.  Boston has a talented (mostly) young core that took a huge step forward this season.  It places them first overall in the East Conference and the favorite to win the East Conference in the playoffs.

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MVP Race Again

When I last talked about the MVP race I supported Evgeni Malkin over Alexander Ovechkin.  I did this in part because Malkin has a significant lead in the points race.  He doesn’t anymore.  Malkin’s lead has shrunk to two points.  Ovechkin has a huge lead in goals and it would take a minor miracle for him to not win the Rocket Richard Trophy.  Since goals are a more significant measure of offensive status of a player than assists, I support Alexander Ovechkin as the current Hart Trophy leader.

There are a few other fringe candidates that might obtain support in some circles including Zach Parise, Pavel Datsyuk, Steve Mason, Sidney Crosby and Tim Thomas but none are likely to seriously impact the Hart Trophy race.  It is between Ovechkin and Malkin and Ovechkin has recently pulled into the lead.

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Correlation Between PIMs And Points

One question I decided to look at is the importance of being a tough team to winning hockey games.  As a marker for toughness we will take the team’s total penalty minutes per game and plot it against their points so far this season.

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Travel Point Losses For Western Teams

While looking at the relative divisional strengths this season, I mentioned that the Central Division is helped by travel.  While West Conference teams lead the league in distance travelled in a season, they are the further west teams in the conference.  This allows the Central Division teams to play a lot of games against travel tired teams.  This is something that has been well-established in some work by Tom Benjamin that was done in the 1990s.  Most of it is no longer available on the internet.  Some readers here (particularly Hockey in HD) had not seen this work and were skeptical.

I cannot re-create all of this work in a short period of time.  In order to show how travel does affect the westernmost teams and get a rough estimate of how many points it costs them in a season, I did some work.  There is a lot more evidence that can be presented, but it will probably have to wait until the off-season.

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Tampa’s 4th Round Pick

There are two CBA related controversies which the NHL has merged into one that are creating some odd precedents for the league.  Both involve the Tampa Bay Lightning’s fourth round pick in 2009.  Last summer, the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Jonas Frogren.  Frogren’s signing created a bit of a CBA mess.  The CBA problems a bit complex, but the biggest thing that bothered the NHL is that Frogren was paying a buyout to his previous Swedish team (Farjestads BK Karlstad) with an increased first year salary.  The NHL had forbidden teams to negotiate transfers of players individually (it would drive up transfer costs).  Technically, the Leafs did not negotiate Frogren’s transfer.  Jonas Frogren did it himself.  The Leafs paid him enough money to do it himself.  It was a creative solution to a problem that probably should not have existed in the first place.

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Relative Divisional Strength

It is quite well known among hockey fans that the West Conference is better than the East Conference.  It is easy to look at the inter-conference record and conclude that.  The West Conference holds a 159-129 winning record (with 26 of the losses scored as regulation draws). 

The next step is to look at the individual divisions.  If we add up the total points earned by the five teams in each division we get the following standings:

Central 455
Northeast 432
Atlantic 430
Pacific 419
Southeast 416
Northwest 411

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Hall Of Fame To Look Harder At Women

I have often suggested that the Hockey Hall of Fame should induct some women, but at the same time never been able to suggest one for this year’s class.  There are always a few ex-NHL players who seem to need induction now, thus making the women wait.  The Hall of Fame is addressing this issue.  Starting in 2010, they will consider male and female candidates separately and induct up to two female hockey players per year in addition to the up to four male ones.

This is a good move to get some of the phenomenal female hockey players who have been dominant players and pioneers in their game into the Hall.  I look forward to seeing Cammi Granato, Cassie Campbell, Manon Rheaume, Angela James, Hayley Wickenheiser, Danielle Goyette and others getting their inductions in the years to come.

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Montreal’s Heir Apparent In Goal

The Montreal Canadiens have been very lucky to have some very good goaltending over the years.  Two times a rookie goalie has taken over the team and led them to the Stanley Cup and won a Conn Smythe Trophy.  Ken Dryden did it in 1971 and Patrick Roy in 1986.  Those are unique cases made possible in part by the fact those goalies are both among the ten best goalies ever

When Carey Price joined the Habs as a very talented young goalie, there was some pressure for history to repeat itself.  This pressure mounted as Montreal traded away previous number one goalie Cristobal Huet to the Washington Capitals, thus leaving Price the number one job in goal.  Some expected that Carey Price would now lead Montreal to the Stanley Cup and win the Conn Smythe in his rookie season.  Those are very heavy expectations for anyone.

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About The Puck Stops Here

imageThe Puck Stops Here was founded during the 2004/05 lockout as a place to rant about hockey. The original site contains over 1000 posts, some of which were also published on FoxSports.com.

Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.

Why am I blogging? I want to.

Why are you reading it? ???

Email: y2kfhl@hotmail.com

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