In the salary capped NHL one must be careful when rebuilding a team. It is important to do it while avoiding the long and often unnecessary process of blowing up everything and spending years out of contention. Most teams are not in such bad shape that blowing everything up is a defenceable move. The Vancouver Canucks have a top level goaltender in Roberto Luongo and a pretty good group of forwards led by Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Their defence was looking rather thin. The Canucks had four returning defencemen who had reasonable success last season in Kevin Bieksa, Alexander Edler, Sami Salo and Willie Mitchell. The only other proven NHLer on defence was Shane O’Brien, who played a lesser role with the team last year. It was clear that some additions were needed on defence.
When in that situation, most teams show up money in hand on the first day of free agency ready to hand a lot of it to the best defenceman they can find. It is a move that can work out, but it often doesn’t as teams usually spend a lot of money in a long term contract that lasts well into the decline phase of the player signed.
The flipside of yesterday’s sabermetrics and hockey post on the top 20 Fenwick Numbers is the worst 20 in 2008/09. That is what I will show today. The Fenwick Number is a measure of puck possession. It measures the differential of shots on goal and missed shots for a player’s team and his opponents when a player is on the ice in 5 on 5 situations. It is much like the Corsi Number except that it doesn’t include blocked shots. Both are these are attempts to improve upon +/- ratings by increasing the number of events involved and thus increasing signal to noise in these metrics.
Here are the worst 20 Fenwick Numbers in 5 on 5 situations from last season with comparisons to the worst 20 Corsi numbers.
In my look at sabermetrics and hockey, I have recently introduced the Fenwick Number. The Fenwick Number is alternative to the Corsi Number. It is an attempt to show puck possession and track players similarly to +/- ratings, but with a smaller statistical uncertainty since it includes more events. Fenwick Number is essentially Corsi Number with blocked shots factored out. It is valuable to try these sabermetrics formulations from various starting assumptions because we want to be certain that any conclusions are not merely artefacts of a certain set of starting assumptions.
Today I present the top 20 player Fenwick Numbers from 2008/09 and compare them to the top 20 Corsi Numbers.
The Phoenix Coyotes situation is quickly becoming an even bigger mess than it had already become. The team is in bankruptcy and goes to auction on September 10th. Various hearings will be held in between now and the auction to try to sort out a mess of legal wranglings.
The NHL was dismayed to learn that Jerry Reinsdorf`s group (he is the Chicago Bulls and White Sox owner - and the NHL`s preferred Phoenix owner) has pulled out of the bidding. He has been unable to get sufficient concessions from Glendale, Arizona, where the Coyotes play and cites negative publicity from this sale as having eroded demand in the Phoenix market.
Stepping in to bid is a group called Ice Edge Holdings who are prepared to offer about $150 million and claim to be interested in revitalizing hockey in Phoenix and the Southwestern US. They are a group of local owners, who likely will be strapped financially with an NHL franchise and as such are not the NHL`s ideal solution.
I have been taking my usual look at sabermetrics and hockey this summer. I have spent most of the time looking at the Corsi Number. The Corsi Number is essentially an alternative to +/- ratings. Instead of using only goals scored to tally ratings, it uses all shots directed at goal (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots). This makes the numbers much larger and removes statistical noise to a better degree than +/- does. Corsi is a good judge of puck possession of players. Players with high Corsis tend to dominate in puck possession and those with low Corsis tend to have their opponents dominating in puck possession.
Corsi is not the only alternative to +/- that is used in this manner. Another method, which is less common, is the Fenwick Rating. It is named for Matt Fenwick from the Battle of Alberta blog. He factors out blocked shots from a Corsi Rating to include only shots on goal and missed shots.
Of the Olympic hockey teams in 2010, no team has as many coaching choices as Team Canada does. Most of the NHL’s coaches are Canadians. The decision of who to coach Team Canada coach has many possibilities. It doesn’t really have any wrong answers as long as somebody competent is selected and most (if not all) NHL coaches qualify as competent coaches.
The ideal coach for Team Canada is somebody who has shown he can succeed with a talented team. It is somebody who does not play a complicated system since there is little time for that to be learned (and let’s face it the six month early Olympic orientation camps are near useless). The ideal coach for Team Canada should not have a conflict of interest where he appears to favor his teammates over other players who may be better fits.
In the 2008/09 season, Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins led the league in scoring with 113 points. He finished second in the Hart Trophy voting behind Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals. Does this mean that Malkin is the second best player in the NHL or did the circumstances of how he was played serve to improve his statistics?
Malkin was heavily played in offensive situations by the Pittsburgh Penguins. In fact, he had the third most prominent offensive zone starter in the NHL last season. This is quite a significant achievement given that Pittsburgh did not have a great season in terms of puck possession. They had more defensive zone faceoffs than offensive zone ones. They finished with a negative team Corsi number. They were a team that got on a hot streak in time for the playoffs, but they had not been dominant in the regular season. In fact, at times during the regular season they looked as though they might miss the playoffs.
When we look at the top 20 offensive zone starters, we see that Ed Jovanovski leads the league. He has a significant lead on anyone else in the league. Jovanovski has 168 more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts. Patrick Kane of Chicago is in second place well back at 139. This is an amazing total given that Phoenix had the worst team Corsi Number in the league last season and had many more defensive faceoffs than offensive faceoffs to take last year.
Given that Jovanovski is the highest paid player on the Coyotes with a $6.5 million salary cap, this isn’t good enough. He should be the player who leads the team and does the hard work to make the team win. In Phoenix, it is Zbynek Michalek and Kurt Sauer who play the tough roles. They are on for the most defensive zone starts in Phoenix.
Recently in this summer’s look at sabermetrics and hockey, I have introduced the concept of zone starts. I recently listed the top 20 defensive zone starters, the players who most frequently are on the ice for faceoffs in their defensive zone and not those in their offensive zone. This is a measure of players who play tough defensive roles with their teams and are thus more likely to have poor Corsi Numbers. Today I will look at the opposite situation, players who are on the ice for the most offensive zone faceoffs minus defensive zone faceoffs. These numbers were pulled from NHL game summaries by Vic Ferrari at Irreverent Oiler Fans.
Here are the top 20 offensive zone starters in the 2008/09 season:
In this summer’s look at sabermetrics and hockey, I have recently introduced the concept of zone starts. This is the tabulation of the number of times a player is on the ice for a faceoff in a given zone on the ice (offensive, neutral or defensive) over the course of the season. In order to see the correlation of these numbers with Corsi Numbers, these zone start numbers are restricted to 5 on 5 situations. The raw data has been tabulated by Vic Ferrari at Irreverent Oiler Fans.
Today I will present the list of the 20 players who were most preferentially used in defensive situations. These are the twenty players who were on the ice for the most defensive zone faceoffs minus offensive faceoffs.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
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