In the second round I picked Duncan Keith of the Chicago Blackhawks as the playoff MVP at that point. Keith has slowed down since then. He has no points and is -1 in his last three games. Thus I am going to pick a new MVP. Given his hat trick last night, Tyler Johnson of the Tampa Bay Lightning seems like a logical choice, but I am not going in that direction. I select Corey Perry of the Anaheim Ducks as the MVP at this point.
Perry has 15 points in 10 playoff games at this point. He is tied for the playoff lead with a +8 +/- rating. Johnson in contrast has one more point in five more games played. He has a league leading 11 goals, which is four more than Perry. He has a +4 +/- rating. The main difference is that Perry has a significantly lower games played total and hence a much higher points per game. Perry is much more productive offensively.
The medal round was completed today at the World Hockey Championships in the Czech Republic. I have earlier reported upon the preliminary round and the quarterfinals. Here I will look at the semi-finals which were played yesterday and the medal games today.
Here are the results:
SemiFinal - Canada 2 Czech Republic 0. Canada dominated this game outshooting the Czech 41-23. Goals were scored by Taylor Hall and Jason Spezza. Mike Smith had the shutout for Canada. Ondrej Pavelec was the losing Czech goalie. This puts Canada in the gold/silver game and the host Czechs into the bronze/4th game.
On June 29th, the 2015 Hockey Hall of Fame class will be announced. There are three first year eligible players who should be inducted in Nicklas Lidstrom, Sergei Fedorov and Chris Pronger. I predict all three get inducted. There might be some issue regarding Chris Pronger in that he hasn't officially retired so that the Philadelphia Flyers can circumvent the salary cap. I don't think the Hall of Fame committee will make him wait - but I could see the logic in it being debated. The Hall of Fame can induct four male players. This would be a good opportunity for a previously overlooked player to be added as a fourth. I predict that Mark Recchi may be that fourth. In an ideal world, I think Sergei Makarov might be a better candidate as a fourth but given the number of times he has been overlooked, I think Recchi is a more likely fourth selection.
The quarterfinals in the World Hockey Championships took place today. This tournament is underway in the Czech Republic. The quarterfinals were single elimination and played between the top four teams from each of the two groups in the preliminary round. The winners in these games advance to the medal round.
Here are the results:
USA 3 Switzerland 1. Connor Hellebuyck was the American goalie and Reto Berra was the Swiss goalie. Roman Josi opened the scoring for the Swiss in the first period. Ben Smith and Charlie Coyle scored less than a minute apart in the second period to give the Americans the lead. Jake Gardiner added an insurance goal in the third period. This puts USA in the medal round.
The second round of the playoffs just ended. Looking back on my predictions I got three correct and one wrong. My incorrect prediction was picking Montreal to defeat Tampa Bay. It is hard to take credit for the New York Rangers victory over Washington when it is a seven game overtime decision but that was a correct prediction. When combined with my first round predictions, I have a 9-3 record so far in playoff predictions. Thus I am guaranteed to get more playoff predictions correct regardless of what happens in the remaining three playoff series.
Let's move onto the semi-final predictions:
The so-called World Hockey Championships are underway in the Czech Republic. While it is hard to take seriously a "world championship" tournament played while many of the best NHL players are not available as they are still playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs, it does give us some good games and it gives us a look at some of the better European players playing alongside NHL players thus giving us an idea of their relative quality.
This year's tournament is being played in Prague and Ostrava. The sixteen teams involved are split into two eight team groups that play round robins. Group A plays in the O2 Arena in Prague and Group B plays in the Cez Arena in Ostrava. The top four teams in each group move onto a single elimination quarterfinal with the winners advancing to the medal round.
Here are the results:
Devan Dubnyk is a free agent this summer. He had an excellent year with the Minnesota Wild and is the most significant reason they made the playoffs. He is nominated for the Vezina Trophy and is most likely going to finish in second place in the voting. What is the second best goaltender in the NHL worth as a free agent? Many years at seven or eight million per year? The problem is Dubnyk does not have the track record of a Vezina nominee. He was lucky to have a chance to play in the NHL at all this season. His 2013/14 season was awful. He started the year in Edmonton and was traded to Nashville before ending the season in the AHL. He posted a .891 saves percentage and a 3.43 GAA during the season.
The Arizona Coyotes gave him a last chance contract worth $800,000, but when they fell out of contention early they decided they didn't need an experienced backup goalie and traded him to Minnesota for a third round draft pick.
If you were Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher what would you do with Dubnyk? He is the saviour of this season. He is due a significant raise. He is quite a risk given his track record. If you give him a significant contract and he cannot repeat his 2014/15 season it would be a mistake in the salary capped world. If he moves on to another team and succeeds there it would also be a significant mistake. How would you proceed here?
Over the last couple of weeks the NHL has announced the finalists for the awards that interest me enough that I gave my selections in my if I had an award ballot post. I want to comment on the actual selections and how they differ from my selections and what if anything we can infer from the people that were selected.
Calder Trophy- Aaron Ekblad Florida Panthers, Johnny Gaudreau Calgary Flames, Mark Stone Ottawa Senators. Filip Forsberg is a clear snub. He finished one point behind Gaudreau and Stone and I think that one point made a big difference in voter's minds. I would argue that Forsberg had the toughest rookie season among forwards because he established himself as a star earlier in the season than Gaudreau or Stone. Thus opposing teams made more of an effort to shut him down and yet he finished with effectively the same point total. I would have omitted Gaudreau from the nominees because of defensive concerns. Nevertheless I expect Gaudreau is the most likely winner. He is exciting to watch and was part of a surprising Calgary team and it makes a good storyline to reward him with rookie of the year in honor of Calgary's successes.
I am looking at active hockey players and deciding when I think they have reached the point that they should make the Hockey Hall of Fame regardless of what they do in the rest of their careers. Today, I am arguing that Marian Hossa has reached that level.
Hossa's argument is made most strongly by his career numbers. He has 1056 career points. This is good for fourth all time among active players. That places him 66th all time among all NHL players. Very few players with that many points who are Hall of Fame eligible have not been inducted. Those that have not been inducted all played in the late 1980s and early 1990s which were the highest scoring era in recent memory. Today's players such as Hossa played in the "dead puck era" where scoring was far lower. Adjusting Hossa's points to a higher scoring era, his numbers would be significantly higher on the all time list. Hossa also lost a season and a half due to lockouts. If he played without labor interruptions his totals would again be much higher.
In the playoffs Hossa has clearly established himself as the second highest scoring active player this season with 134 career playoff points so far. His seven points so far in this year's playoffs have clearly moved him past the rest of the active field (except for Jaromir Jagr). Hossa has a very good scoring record in the regular season and in the playoffs.
One of my favorite questions is to ask when currently active players make it to the level where they are worthy of Hall of Fame induction regardless of what happens in the rest of their career. Today I will argue that Ilya Kovalchuk has made it to that level.
Kovalchuk was clearly on a Hall of Fame track when he left the NHL. He was a point per game player with 417 goals and 816 points in 816 games played. His career numbers are likely lower than they should be because Kovalchuk played in the dead puck era and missed time in his NHL career with two lockouts. He should have bigger offensive numbers to show for his career. Without lockouts he could have 500 regular season NHL goals. Nevertheless his NHL accomplishments are impressive. He had won a Richard Trophy, a Calder Trophy and made the first and second team all star. It was reasonable to project that if he stayed in the NHL he would have been a 600 or 700 goal scorer. The problem was he abruptly ended his NHL career to "retire" and then play in the KHL.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging? I want to.
Why are you reading it? ???