With October gone in the 2010/11 season, I am picking my first rookie of the year leader for the season. I am tracking award leaders throughout the season, in part to see how they change as time passes. With the Calder Trophy in particular, a rookie who establishes himself early in the year tends to do better than an equivalent rookie who establishes himself later in the year. The rookie of the year is an award where it is important to get out of the gate quickly.
So far this season, it is Michal Neuvirth of the Washington Capitals who is off to a fast start. He has appeared in every one of Washington`s 11 games so far this year. He is tied for the league lead with seven wins and posts a .926 saves percentage and a 2.15 GAA.
For several years, I have tracked the players that I think are leading for the NHL awards as the season progresses. This often has me picking several leaders as the season progresses and things change. It is interesting to see how things change as the season progresses and see how soon into the season the final award candidates present themselves. At this point, I think Kris Letang of the Pittsburgh Penguins is the early leader. He is tied for the league lead among defencemen in points with eight. His +8 +/- rating is second best in the league and leads his team.
I think Letang is one of the better young defencemen in the game. At age 23, he is making a jump to the top defencemen in the NHL. Last year, he appeared among the top players in the league by adjusted Corsi rating. This is all evidence that he is becoming a star. This is easily seen watching the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Carolina Hurricanes are the worst team in the faceoff circle so far this year. They have a 37.1% success rate in the faceoff circle, which is the league worst. It is more than 6% worse than any other team in the league. Last year, they were sixth worst in the league with a 48.1% faceoff success rate.
The main difference between this year and last is the retirement of Rod Brind’Amour. Brind’Amour was the third best faceoff man in the NHL last year with a 58.8% faceoff success rate. Despite this success, Brind’Amour was not particularly successful. He was only capable of scoring 19 points and had a -29 +/- rating, which was third worst in the league. Despite his faceoff success, Brind’Amour was a liability to his team last year.
This summer the San Jose Sharks starting goalie of the past several years Evgeni Nabokov jumped to the KHL. This was a salary cap driven move, as Nabokov could get a bigger contract in the KHL than any NHL team in the current climate of the league would offer. This forced San Jose to bring in a new goaltending pair. They signed free agent goalies Antero Niittymaki from Tampa Bay and Stanley Cup winner Antti Niemi from Chicago. Although neither is as good as Nabokov, I think this pair will be a success at least in the regular season. San Jose has two goalies who are capable of playing well for stretches of a season Neither are stars who are likely to dominate for entire seasons, but as long as one is on his game most of the season, things will be fine. San Jose has enough talent elsewhere to do well.
A little over a week ago, I picked Brad Richards of the Dallas Stars as the early season MVP, as is usually the case, things change rapidly early in the season. Richards has clearly been overtaken by Steve Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Stamkos is the top scorer in the NHL with 15 points (nobody else has above 11 points). Stamkos is tied for the NHL lead with eight goals. He also has a team leading +8 +/- rating.
Steve Stamkos is quickly becoming one of the biggest stars in the NHL and at this rate could soon be a serious candidate in any debate for the best hockey player in the world. Last year, Stamkos’s second in the NHL, was his breakout year where he tied for the NHL goal scoring lead with 51 goals. This summer, I ranked Stamkos as the fifth best player in the NHL and third best forward and I think he is showing that ranking if it is incorrect is too low.
During the course of the season, I try to track the worst player who plays regularly in the NHL. Last year, I picked Raitis Ivanans then of the Los Angeles Kings. He dressed regularly as a Kings goon but failed to score at all this season. Ivanans is in Calgary this year and has only played one game so far thanks to injuries suffered in his fight with Steve MacIntyre of the Edmonton Oilers on opening day.
I think it is too early in the season to clearly pick a worst player so far this year, but one very good candidate has been Simon Gagne of the Tampa Bay Lightning. His poor start is surprising because Gagne is a proven NHL player who has twice represented Canada in the Olympics.
It is informative to track the leaders for the NHL awards throughout the season and see when the eventual winners take over as the leaders for the possible awards. In many cases, the early season leaders do not wind up winning the awards, but sometimes they do. The early Vezina Trophy leader is likely Tim Thomas of the Boston Bruins. He has stopped 95 of 97 shots taken on him. He has a 0.67 goals against average and a .979 saves percentage. These are remarkable numbers that nobody can maintain over an entire season. However, it is quite reasonable to imagine Thomas will have a very good season. Thomas is the 2009 Vezina Trophy winner.
Last year, he lost his number one goaltending position in Boston to rookie Tuukka Rask. This is not because of poor play of Thomas but because Rask had a league leading saves percentage.
Taylor Hall was the first pick overall in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. He is likely to be a future NHL star, but he isn’t off to a fast start with the Edmonton Oilers. He has one assist so far in his four game NHL career. This has happened despite a solid amount of ice time - over 15 minutes a game. The best scenario for the Edmonton Oilers would be to send him back to the OHL for the season.
Edmonton holds Hall’s rights for seven NHL seasons of until he turns 27 years old (whichever comes first). This season will not count as one of the seven seasons in question unless he plays nine or more games this year. He remains on an entry level deal for the first three years of his NHL career and is presumably a good enough player to be significantly underpaid by the end of that period of time. He is more likely to have a higher value as he matures and gets older. 18 year old Taylor Hall will not be as good as 21 year old Taylor Hall. You are more likely to get a better season out of Hall if you control his NHL career at age 26 and 27 than at 18 and 19.
I like to track leaders for the NHL awards from early in the season through to season’s end to see when players secured their leads for the awards that they wind up winning. Now that a few games have been played, it becomes possible to start picking award leaders. It is likely the case that these early award leaders will not wind up winning awards, but it is interesting to track how long they remain top contenders. Today, I am looking at the Hart Trophy for NHL MVP. I think the leader at this point is Brad Richards of the Dallas Stars. He is tied for the league lead with 9 points, the assist lead with 7 assists and the +/- lead with +7. All of this is despite playing only four games so far, which is one of the lower totals in the league. A Brad Richards MVP run would be interesting because of his impending unrestricted free agency this year. It would suddenly make him in line for a huge contract this summer, when many were predicting he would be forced to take a pay cut from his current 5 year $39 million ($7.8 million per year cap hit) contract.
This summer, Atlanta walked away from Clarke MacArthur’s arbitration award. They decided they didn’t want him at all and had decided to walk away from his arbitration award, regardless of what it might be. This made MacArthur a free agent. Since this occurred well into the free agency period, he had limited options to pursue. Eventually he signed a lowball offer of $1.1 million with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Now that the new season has begun, Clarke MacArthur is leading the NHL in goals. He has five goals in four games. MacArthur is fitting in as a frontline player on the Toronto Maple Leafs and is a big part of the reason they have been off to a fast start. Atlanta’s decision to drop him so quickly and for nothing in return is starting to look really stupid. Atlanta has never won a playoff game in their history and decisions like this one will help to keep that trend alive.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging? I want to.
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