I do not like most of the popular front runners for the Selke Trophy this year. Many people support Pavel Datsyuk of the Detroit Red Wings. He won the award for the last two years. I did not support Datsyuk last year because he isn’t played often enough in defensive situations. Datsyuk has only played 59 minutes shorthanded so far this year. It is a drop by about 50% on last year and last year’s total was unreasonably low for a Selke Trophy winner. The other top popular Selke candidates are people who played strong defensive roles in the Olympics (which will impact the NHL awards - even though they shouldn’t). There is Ryan Kesler of the Vancouver Canucks who played a strong defensive role for the US Olympic Team and Jonathan Toews of the Chicago Blackhawks who played a strong defensive role for the Canadian Olympic Team. Kesler is generally considered the better candidate as he was a Selke Trophy nominee last year.
There is a lot of support to give Ilya Bryzgalov of the Phoenix Coyotes the Vezina or even the Hart Trophy. I think this idea is misguided. The idea is that Phoenix has been the most improved team in the league. They have done so without significantly increasing goals scored (last year they scored 2.50 goals per game and this year its 2.56). Their improvement has come by reducing goals allowed from 3.04 to 2.41. They are crediting this improvement to Bryzgalov. This idea is flawed, in part because Bryzgalov was their goalie last season, so any improvement in goaltending merely shows improvement in Bryzgalov and not his being the most valuable player. It is this kind of thinking that often gives the coach of the year to the most improved team’s coach.
I think the biggest reason for Phoenix’s reduction in goal allowed is better team defence. For the most part this comes from better coaching. Dave Tippett is a far better coach that Wayne Gretzky and this shows in the standings. As a team, Phoenix has made great strides defensively. That will improve their win totals and improve their goaltenders statistics.
The Detroit Red Wing season has not gone according to plan. They spent much of the season just outside the playoff positions in the West Conference. Detroit’s problems have been due to age, injuries and player losses due to salary cap constraints. They have recently been able to avoid any key injuries and this has helped the team to get on track. They have climbed into sixth in the West with a 40-36 record (with 13 regulation tie points - the highest total of any playoff team). They are one point back of fifth seed Nashville, with two games in hand.
It is clear that Detroit is going to make the playoffs, barring a major collapse. Most likely they won’t be a bottom seed looking to knock off a team that just won the conference; they will likely face a team that had approximately the same record they had in the regular season. As things stand, they would face the Vancouver Canucks and if they slide into fifth seed they would face the Phoenix Coyotes.
The KHL is a threat to the NHL. It is not going to put the NHL out of business, but it is drawing an ever increasing pool of talented players who could be successful NHL players. Assuming the KHL cannot steal away current NHL stars - though it has had success drawing Jaromir Jagr, Alexei Yashin, Alexander Radulov and others - the key for its growth is to draw young potential laden young players to the league. It seems to be succeeding with Kirill Kabanov.
Kirill Kabanov was once considered a potential first overall pick in the 2010 Entry Draft. He came to play in the QMJHL with the Moncton Wildcats this season. He missed most of the season with a wrist injury that required surgery. It kept him out of the World Junior Championships. He played only 22 games this season, scoring 23 points. The problem for the NHL is that Kabanov appeared unhappy in Canada and has been allowed to depart his Moncton team during their playoff run so that he can return to his native Belarus and prepare to play for them in the World Championships next month.
The NHL regular season is almost over and we see that the West Conference remains stronger than the East Conference this season. The West has a 152-103 (with 28 regulation tie points) record against East Conference teams. Almost sixty percent of inter-conference games have wound up with the West Conference winning. The only West teams that do not have winning records against the East are Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus and Anaheim (the latter two have apparent winning records when the point for losing is taken into account).
This inequity between conferences is seen in the NHL standings. Colorado has 89 points and holds down the last playoff spot in the West. In the East, Boston is in the last playoff spot with only 80 points. Calgary looks likely to miss playoffs in the West. They have a 38-38 record (with 9 regulation tie points) that would have them sixth in the East. This compares with the Boston Bruins 34-40 (with 12 regulation tie points) record that looks good enough for playoffs in the East.
The NHL got its first 100 point scorer of the season last night. With two assists in a losing effort last night against San Jose, Henrik Sedin now has 101 points. He is the first player this season to clear the 100 point barrier. As a player who had a previous career best of 82 points, would you have predicted this last summer? I know that I wouldn’t have.
Henrik Sedin was picked third overall in the 1999 entry draft by the Vancouver Canucks. Though he has been one of the Canucks top players for a few years, this is the first season where he has been one of the best in the league. At age 29, it is a little late in his career to make such a jump. Most players do so at a younger age. One of the most debated questions this summer will be whether or not Henrik’s season is repeatable. I am unconvinced that he can score 100 or more points on a routine basis.
A few days ago I wrote about subjective stats where a scorer makes a decision about whether or not an event occurred (when there often isn’t a clear definition of the event) or a scorer makes a decision about who is responsible for a goal. The problem with these statistics is they are filtered through the subjective bias of the scorer. It is hard to determine any meaningful conclusions from these statistics because the systematic bias of the scoring is often the signal and there is no underlying effect in the actual hockey. I was prompted to write this because of Dave Staples +/- system where he scores pluses and minuses to who he thinks were responsible for the goal as opposed to all players on the ice in the NHL’s +/-. I am arguing that the systematic bias this system imposes makes it a poor way to learn about hockey.
There is an example of an even simpler subjective stat that is very hard to interpret because of systematic scorer bias. The NHL scores hits in its games. In principle it should be simple for a scorer to determine if a hit occurred, but behind the net hockey shows that this isn’t so.
It is conventional wisdom among most NHL fans that even though the Washington Capitals are first overall in the league, it will be hard for them to win the Stanley Cup because of a lack of top goaltending. Jose Theodore is the Capitals number one goalie. He won the Hart and Vezina Trophies in 2002. Since that time things have not gone so well. He put up a pathetic .882 saves percentage in 2005/06 and followed it up with .891 the next season. From that point on, it has been hard to consider Jose Theodore a top goaltender, but he has rebounded. In fact, Theodore has played extremely well in the last few months. Since January 13th, 2010, Theodore has not had a regulation loss. This is a 19 game run where Theodore has gone 17-0-2. In that time, Theodore put up a .927 saves percentage (the only goalie in the league who played as much as Theodore with a better saves percentage is Tomas Vokoun of Florida). He has a 2.42 GAA in that time.
If Jose Theodore plays as well as he has been playing for the last several months, Washington does not have a liability in goal. They have a strength. When the first place team in the league appears to have solved the problem that was to be their Achilles heel, it is time for the rest of the league to take notice and be worried.
There have been a few stories written about faceoffs on the blogosphere lately. Jibblescribbits wrote a post of the Selke Trophy frontrunners that used faceoff percentages as a significant portion of his reasoning and behind the net wrote about faceoffs as well. I think that both have over-emphasized the importance of faceoffs. I have written about this topic in the past.
When people begin to record non-traditional statistics (beyond goals, assists and penalty minutes), faceoffs are one of the easiest things to record. The puck is dropped and one of two teams takes control. It is a binary event. Even in the most complicated case where the two faceoff-men tie each other up and a third player gains control of the puck, it is clear that there is a winner. Thus it is easy to record statistics for faceoffs.
As you may know, Dave Staples of Cult of Hockey has been railing against +/- ratings for a while. He has gone as far as calculating his own +/- rating system where he watches games and subjectively gives players pluses and minuses based on his opinion of how culpable they are for goals he watches. I have written in the past about how I think his approach is wrong and will not yield any useful insight into hockey. Now that he is trying to draw conclusions from his stat, it is time to explain my criticism in some detail.
About The Puck Stops Here
Who am I? A diehard hockey fan.
Why am I blogging? I want to.
Why are you reading it? ???