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The NHL’s 1st Quarter MVP?

by Forechecker on 11/21/08 at 03:32 PM ET
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So who is your MVP for the NHL’s 1st quarter?  In order to take a comprehensive look at which players have impacted team performance the most, I’d like to present my own take on the Top 30 skaters so far.  This analysis combines even strength, special teams, durability and penalty drawing/taking information in what I hope you’ll agree is a more complete picture than we’ve typically seen when it comes to comparing individual stars.

In light of yesterday’s discussion on the traditional Plus/Minus statistic, what I’ve done here is utilize the Rating stat from Behind the Net, which describes the net impact of an individual’s on-ice presence to team Goals For and Against values.  Typically, this is isolate to 5-on-5, 5-on-4, or 4-on-5 action, with figures prorated to 60 minutes of playing time.

This view, however, incorporates Games Played and Time on Ice into the mix, to come up with a Rating Impact value for each situation (5-on-5 Imp, 5-on-4 Imp, 4-on-5 Imp) [edit: updated for clarity], which expresses the sum total of both offensive and defensive contributions in balance.  All three situations are brought together in the Total Rat Imp column, with the final columns on the right bringing Penalty Plus/Minus into the formula.  Current (through the games of November 20th) values are in the PPM column, and PPM Impact is calculated by assigning a value of 0.153 goals for each net penalty drawn, a figure which comes from an analysis done by Alan Ryder last year, which also includes the offensive and defensive aspects of a power play (the PP team is more likely to score, and the opponent is less likely).  What we’re left with is Total Impact…

NAME	TEAM	POS	GP	5/5 TOI/G	5/5 Rate	5/5 Imp	5/4 TOI/G	5/4 Rate	5/4 Imp	4/5 TOI/G	4/5 Rate	4/5 Imp	Tot Rate Imp	PPM	PPM Imp	Tot Imp
ALEXANDER OVECHKIN	WSH	LW	17	15.3	3.58	15.52	5.37	7.23	11.00	1.55	0.43	0.19	26.71	1	0.153	26.86
MIKE GREEN	WSH	D	18	15.83	1.99	9.45	5.51	4.74	7.84	2.59	7.50	5.83	23.11	-3	-0.459	22.65
ALEXANDER SEMIN	WSH	LW	16	11.93	4.75	15.11	4.30	0.98	1.12	2.20	8.36	4.90	21.14	1	0.153	21.29
DANIEL ALFREDSSON	OTT	RW	18	13.19	1.25	4.95	5.06	6.57	9.97	1.93	6.20	3.59	18.51	5	0.765	19.27
COREY PERRY	ANA	RW	20	13.82	1.52	7.00	3.33	9.92	11.01	0.02	7.61	0.05	18.06	0	0	18.06
SIDNEY CROSBY	PIT	C	19	15.17	1.35	6.49	5.00	6.32	10.01	1.09	2.59	0.89	17.39	2	0.306	17.69
JAROME IGINLA	CGY	RW	20	15.14	0.33	1.67	5.52	7.06	12.99	0.18	6.26	0.38	15.03	10	1.53	16.56
CHRIS PRONGER	ANA	D	20	16.29	0.11	0.60	3.97	13.92	18.42	3.78	-2.00	-2.52	16.50	-3	-0.459	16.04
DERICK BRASSARD	CBJ	C	18	10.43	3.38	10.58	3.44	4.85	5.01	0.06	6.68	0.12	15.70	2	0.306	16.01
MIKE RICHARDS	PHI	C	17	14.42	2.44	9.97	3.55	0.30	0.30	2.76	5.46	4.27	14.54	8	1.224	15.76
PATRIK BERGLUND	STL	C	14	11.5	5.8	15.56	1.94	-2.21	-1.00	0.01	5.55	0.01	14.58	3	0.459	15.03
NIKOLAI ZHERDEV	NYR	RW	21	12.72	3.06	13.62	2.61	1.46	1.33	0.08	2.79	0.08	15.03	-1	-0.153	14.88
TOMAS HOLMSTROM	DET	LW	17	11.83	2.81	9.42	3.08	5.33	4.65	0.01	3.93	0.01	14.08	4	0.612	14.69
EVGENI MALKIN	PIT	C	19	14.41	2.4	10.95	5.28	3.44	5.75	0.99	-9.02	-2.83	13.88	4	0.612	14.49
SEAN O’DONNELL	LAK	D	18	16.59	2.32	11.55	0.32	-4.84	-0.46	3.53	3.44	3.64	14.72	-2	-0.306	14.42
MARIAN HOSSA	DET	RW	18	12.74	2.77	10.59	2.99	4.17	3.74	1.67	0.18	0.09	14.42	0	0	14.42
SAKU KOIVU	MTL	C	17	11.49	2.28	7.42	3.25	6.67	6.14	1.02	-0.31	-0.09	13.47	3	0.459	13.93
DOUG WEIGHT	NYI	C	18	12.83	1.45	5.58	4.83	4.65	6.74	0.33	13.63	1.35	13.67	1	0.153	13.82
JASON SPEZZA	OTT	C	19	14.49	0.52	2.39	5.21	5.84	9.64	0.20	20.87	1.32	13.34	2	0.306	13.65
WILLIE MITCHELL	VAN	D	20	16.54	2.18	12.02	0.35	-6.04	-0.70	4.34	1.78	2.58	13.89	-2	-0.306	13.58
RYAN GETZLAF	ANA	C	19	14.31	0.56	2.54	3.37	10.30	10.99	0.07	7.97	0.18	13.71	-2	-0.306	13.40
JASON ARNOTT	NSH	C	15	12.36	1.31	4.05	4.16	8.66	9.01	0.21	5.47	0.29	13.34	0	0	13.34
SHELDON SOURAY	EDM	D	18	15.72	0.9	4.24	4.47	5.27	7.07	3.69	1.99	2.20	13.51	-3	-0.459	13.06
NICKLAS BACKSTROM	WSH	C	19	13.76	2.07	9.02	3.79	2.41	2.89	0.27	6.59	0.56	12.48	3	0.459	12.93
ZACH PARISE	NJD	LW	18	15.3	2.18	10.01	3.49	0.98	1.03	0.21	9.97	0.63	11.66	7	1.071	12.73
PAVEL DATSYUK	DET	C	18	13.01	2.36	9.21	3.16	2.51	2.38	2.44	0.04	0.03	11.62	7	1.071	12.69
JEAN-PIERRE DUMONT	NSH	RW	18	12.96	0.82	3.19	4.24	7.86	10.00	0.14	-18.61	-0.78	12.40	1	0.153	12.56
PAUL KARIYA	STL	LW	11	12.87	2.69	6.35	3.86	9.89	7.00	0.25	-16.06	-0.74	12.61	-1	-0.153	12.46
KIM JOHNSSON	MIN	D	17	18.08	1.87	9.58	2.09	2.51	1.49	3.72	1.54	1.62	12.69	-2	-0.306	12.38
DREW DOUGHTY	LAK	D	18	16.1	2.67	12.90	4.21	-1.48	-1.87	1.36	4.40	1.80	12.82	-5	-0.765	12.06

So what do these numbers tell us?  First of all, if I’m a Washington Capitals fan, I’m terrified of anything happening to the trio of Ovechkin, Green, and Semin.  If I’m a Calgary or Philadelphia fan, I’m proud of captains like Jarome Iginla and Mike Richards, whose composure in drawing penalties adds a significant boost to their team.

Feel free to run through these results and chime in with your thoughts.  One point I’d like to add is what this really measures is how an individual stands in relation to the rest of his team (the “who means the most” side of the MVP debate).  A theoretical team made up of identical players, no matter how good or bad, would come up with zeroes across the Behind the Net ratings.

Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis, | On the Forecheck | Permalink
 

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