Kukla's Korner

Crowning a Least Valuable Player

by Forechecker on 11/21/08 at 07:12 PM ET
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We’ve had our fun identifying an MVP for the 1st Quarter of the NHL season (Alex Ovechkin, don’t you know), so now it’s only appropriate to focus the lens of statistical analysis on the opposite end of the league.  Who has been the biggest disaster on ice so far?  May I have the envelope, please…

For the method behind the madness, check out today’s earlier 1st Quarter NHL MVP post.  The basic idea is to assess a player’s impact on Goals For and Against by taking those metrics when a player is on the ice during 5-on-5, 5-on-4, and 4-on-5 situations, and compare that to how his team does when he’s on the bench.  A further adjustment is given for a player’s Penalty Plus/Minus performance, in other words, how he either favorably or unfavorably generates special teams situations during a game.  The sum total of all these scenarios gives a comprehensive, results-driven view of an individual’s impact on his team.  So let’s break out the tar and feathers for…

 NAMETEAMPOSGP5/5 TOI5/5 Rate5/5 Imp5/4 TOI5/4 Rate5/4 Imp4/5 TOI4/5 Rate4/5 ImpTot Rat ImpPPMPPM ImpTot Imp
 DMITRI KALININDNYR2114.75-2.99-15.440.70-7.11-1.741.89-6.90-4.56-21.7400-21.74
 BRYCE SALVADORDNJD1717.22-3.16-15.420.08-4.57-0.103.32-3.13-2.94-18.47-3-0.459-18.92
 ZDENO CHARADBOS1917.63-2.00-11.173.78-0.67-0.803.28-5.38-5.59-17.56-6-0.918-18.47
 JAY BOUWMEESTERDFLA1819.32-1.16-6.724.64-3.93-5.473.70-4.21-4.67-16.87-7-1.071-17.94
 TOMAS FLEISCHMANNLWWSH1910.78-2.79-9.522.31-4.37-3.201.52-7.65-3.68-16.4030.459-15.94
 MICHAL ROZSIVALDNYR2114.88-1.83-9.534.00-1.99-2.792.03-4.28-3.04-15.36-3-0.459-15.82
 DAN HAMHUISDNSH1814.6-1.96-8.582.180.160.104.38-4.87-6.40-14.8820.306-14.57
 NICK FOLIGNOLWOTT199.00-3.69-10.522.11-5.64-3.770.004.250.00-14.28-1-0.153-14.44
 JAMAL MAYERSRWTOR198.05-3.94-10.040.19-9.00-0.541.64-5.95-3.09-13.68-2-0.306-13.98
 FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMINDANA1817.07-1.27-6.502.33-12.88-9.005.001.582.37-13.14-4-0.612-13.75
 KIMMO TIMONENDPHI1714.62-0.48-1.994.40-4.65-5.804.48-3.94-5.00-12.79-5-0.765-13.55
 ANTOINE VERMETTELWOTT1913.35-0.54-2.282.17-5.76-3.962.81-8.19-7.29-13.5300-13.53
 BRENT SOPELDCHI1310.41-4.48-10.100.06-5.36-0.073.08-3.98-2.66-12.83-1-0.153-12.98
 BRENDAN MORRISONCANA2011.88-2.05-8.122.05-9.77-6.680.934.911.52-13.2720.306-12.97
 TRAVIS MOENLWANA2011.88-2.05-8.120.46-6.64-1.022.79-3.08-2.86-12.00-3-0.459-12.46
 VERNON FIDDLERCNSH159.92-2.67-6.620.37-3.94-0.363.94-6.40-6.30-13.2960.918-12.37
 SAMUEL PAHLSSONCANA2011.82-2.05-8.080.10-6.19-0.214.94-2.10-3.46-11.74-1-0.153-11.89
 JOHN MADDENCNJD1813.96-2.04-8.540.28-4.55-0.383.10-2.64-2.46-11.38-3-0.459-11.84
 ED JOVANOVSKIDPHX1717.18-1.84-8.964.07-2.81-3.241.053.411.01-11.18-4-0.612-11.79
 JAMES SHEPPARDCMIN1713.17-3.17-11.830.56-7.43-1.181.552.120.93-12.0820.306-11.77
 P. J. AXELSSONCBOS1612.73-3.13-10.630.69-1.18-0.222.91-0.98-0.76-11.6010.153-11.45
 DAVID JONESLWCOL1511.07-3.13-8.660.13-6.27-0.200.75-17.76-3.33-12.2050.765-11.43
 KRIS DRAPERRWDET189.85-4.38-12.940.09-13.89-0.382.612.451.92-11.4010.153-11.25
 MATHIEU SCHNEIDERDATL1316.13-2.29-8.004.40-0.32-0.311.34-6.03-1.75-10.06-7-1.071-11.13
 DAN BOYLEDSJS1915.43-0.56-2.745.18-7.07-11.601.736.733.69-10.65-3-0.459-11.11
 SERGEI SAMSONOVLWCAR1913.18-2.81-11.733.301.041.090.035.540.05-10.59-3-0.459-11.05
 PAVEL KUBINADTOR1914.77-0.23-1.083.55-7.04-7.911.40-3.13-1.39-10.38-4-0.612-10.99
 ERIC BREWERDSTL1518.51-1.21-5.602.21-9.02-4.983.510.250.22-10.36-4-0.612-10.98
 MICHAEL PECACCBJ1410.64-3.45-8.570.23-20.41-1.102.54-1.05-0.62-10.28-4-0.612-10.89
 AARON WARDDBOS1916.88-1.06-5.670.09-7.06-0.202.72-3.91-3.37-9.24-7-1.071-10.31

Congratulations (or rather condolences) go out to Dmitri Kalinin of the New York Rangers; his incompetence is extremely well-rounded (note those strongly negative Ratings in the 3 main categories), with the lone exception of Penalty Plus/Minus; his even-0 score there is actually pretty decent for a defenseman serving regular duty.  I know all you Boston Bruins fans will howl over Zdeno Chara coming in 3rd-worst here, but let’s take a look as to why.  In 5-on-5 action, the Bruins have had 10 Goals both For and Against while Chara is on the ice, but when he’s on the bench, they’re outscoring the opposition by 2.00 Goals/60 minutes.  In 4-on-5 penalty killing duty, his Goals Against rate is the worst on the team.  People can make excuses around such things (is he playing too much?), but results are results, and right now, the big guy isn’t having a great campaign.

I can also hear the gasps over Dan Boyle appearing near the bottom, considering how many Sharks fans are positively giddy over his move to San Jose over the summer.  The knock on Boyle appears to be Power Play-related; despite logging the most PP minutes on the team, the scoring rate when he’s out there lags behind that of his teammates, and he’s been out there for three shorthanded Goals Against, a bad combination.

Be sure to study this list well, so that the next time you’re at the rink, at least you’ll know which guy you should be booing…

Filed in: NHL Statistical Analysis, | On the Forecheck | Permalink
 

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